Local weather and regional climate influence breeding dynamics of Mountain Bluebirds (Sialia currucoides) and Tree Swallows (Tachycineta bicolor): a 35-year study

Many songbirds are under increasing pressure owing to habitat loss, land-use changes, and rapidly changing climatic conditions. Using citizen science data collected from 1980 to 2014, we asked how local weather and regional climate influenced the breeding dynamics of Mountain Bluebirds (Sialia currucoides (Bechstein, 1798)) and Tree Swallows (Tachycineta bicolor (Vieillot, 1808)). Mountain Bluebird reproduction was strongly associated with local weather: number of nestlings and fledglings both decreased in years of high rainfall. Clutch size and number of fledglings also declined over the study period. Abundance of Mountain Bluebirds was higher in years of lower early-season snowfall and warmer local temperatures, as well as more negative Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values, indicating a positive influence of El Niño conditions. Tree Swallow reproduction (clutch size, number of nestlings, and number of fledglings) was negatively associated with SOI values, and the number of Tree Swallow nestlings decreased in years of higher rainfall and warmer temperatures. Tree Swallows also showed a marked decline in abundance over the period of the study, consistent with recent range-wide declines. Together, our results demonstrate that local weather and regional climate differentially affect the reproductive dynamics of Mountain Bluebirds and Tree Swallows and highlight the importance of long-term citizen science data sets.