Proceedings of
the 7th Annual
Thompson Rivers University

Undergraduate
Research
and Innovation
Conference
Kamloops, BC | April 2012

Proceedings of
the 7th Annual
Thompson Rivers University

Undergraduate
Research
and Innovation
Conference
Kamloops, BC | April 2012

Thompson Rivers University
900 McGill Road
Kamloops, BC V2C 0C8
© 2013 Thompson Rivers University

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any
form or by any means without permission of Thompson Rivers
University Office of Research, Innovation and Graduate Studies.
Published by Thompson Rivers University
Office of Research and Graduate Studies.
Proceedings of the 7th Annual Thompson Rivers University
Undergraduate Student Research and Innovation Conference.

Cover photographs:
Front – clockwise from top left:
smaller.pathological.ca; Dean Terry; Gravityware; Marissa Garza
Back – clockwise from left:
Nomade Moderne; NatalieMaynor; Adam Scotti; Dave King

Printed in Canada
March 2013

2

Organizing Committee
Co-Chairs: Ms. Elizabeth Rennie, and Dr. Mohammad Mahbobi
Committee Members: Dr. Jim Hoffman, Dr. Lyn Baldwin, Dr. Nancy Flood,
Ms. Robin Nichol, Ms. Ginny Ratsoy, and Dr. Tom Waldichuk
Student Volunteers: Fiona Brown, Hayfaa Bibi Zafiirah Golapkhan,
Brittany Nelson, Brian Wallin, and Vi-Anne Zirnhelt

Acknowledgments
The Organizing Committee of the 2012 Undergraduate Research and
Innovation Conference would like to gratefully acknowledge everyone
involved in making the 7th annual conference a success. In particular,
the nine anonymous referees and the following list of sponsors, and
supporters for their financial contributions and supports.
Conference Sponsors
Dr. Uli Scheck, Provost & Vice-President Academic
Dr. Don Noakes, Interim Associate Vice-President Research
Dr. Michael Mehta, Dean Faculty of Arts
Dr. Will Garrett-Petts, Associate Dean of Arts
Dr. Tom Dickinson, Dean Faculty of Science
Dr. Russell Currie, Dean School of Business and Economics
Dr. Charles Webber, Dean Faculty of Human, Social, and Educational Development
Dr. Barbara Paterson, Dean School of Nursing
Kathy Gaynor, Interim University Library Director
Lindsay Langill, Dean School of Trades & Technology
and,
In Memory of Dr. Wesley Koczka, Associate Vice-President International
Conference Supporters
Office of the President
Office of the Vice-President and Provost
Office of Research, Innovation and Graduate Studies
Visual and Performing Arts Students and their Instructors
Marketing and Communications
The Omega
TRU Creative Services
TRU Media Services
TRU Printshop
TRUSU
CURA
TRU Facilities Services
Security Services

4

Contents
Introduction..................................................................................................................... 7
Back to the Pantry: Canada’s Truth is in the Cupboard
Amber Wilson.................................................................................................................. 12
Community Economic Development Report for Duncan:
Strategies for Seniors, First Nations Partnerships, and the Creative Economy
Bonnie Klohn................................................................................................................... 17
Value of Residential Building Permits for Single Family
Dwellings in Canada: What does the future hold?
Christina Smale............................................................................................................... 28
CO2 Sequestration Using Continuous Microalgae
(Chlamydomonas sp.) Culture Linked in Series
Cody Ponting .................................................................................................................. 46
Does Inbreeding Depression Occur
in the Sagebrush Buttercup (Ranunculus glaberrimus)?
Sabina Donnelly.............................................................................................................. 56
Analysis of Optical Response and Morphological
Dimorphisms of Gender Morphs in an Androdioecious
Population of Ranunculus glabberimus ssp. ellipticus
Kristin Tilbury ................................................................................................................ 69
Canadian Afghanistan War Artist:
Canadian Forces Artists Program (CFAP)
Natasha Costello.............................................................................................................. 81
An Overview of the Great Expulsion,
Subsequent Migrations and Acadian Cultural Persistence
Saskia Perriard-Abdoh..................................................................................................... 87
Does Convergence Theory Help to Explain
Resiliency after Land Reform in Mexican Ejidos?
Bonnie Klohn................................................................................................................... 96

6

Introduction
Thompson Rivers University Undergraduate
Research and Innovation Conference and its
annual Proceedings constitute a forum for TRU
undergraduate researchers who work on various
projects, case studies, research papers, professional,
artistic, and other scholarly and innovative works
year-round covering a diverse range of topics of
their choice.
Through this collection of selected articles
presented to the 2012 Thompson Rivers University
Undergraduate Conference we recognize and
broadcast not only the accomplishments of the
recent past, but of our collective future. Each of
these articles represents for these young researchers
both the culmination of a long intellectual process
and expectations regarding what needs to be
addressed next. From first defining a topic of
interest, researching that topic, writing up results,
presenting the findings in an open forum, to revising
and editing for final consideration in this collection,
these TRU students have brought attention and
depth to their particular subject area, but more
importantly, defined the terms and established the
grounds for further research and academic debate
moving forward in this century. The breadth and
significance of the themes addressed may readily be
seen in the following abstracts.
Four of the contributions to this collection
directly address themes specific to the fate of our
country. Amber Wilson, in “Back to the Pantry:
Canada’s Truth is in the Cupboard” grapples
with the illusive yet passionate debate over what
constitutes the “Canadian identity,” seeking insight
and revelation through literary humour and
orality as the means by which to establish a new
understanding of “being Canadian.” Exploring new
avenues in interrogating this theme, Wilson provides
strong grounds for a much more imaginative and

Each of these
articles represents
for these young
researchers both the
culmination of a long
intellectual process
and expectations
regarding what
needs to be
addressed next.

Proceedings of the 7th Annual Thompson Rivers University Undergraduate Research and Innovation Conference

7

Through these
articles our
undergraduate
researchers have
addressed topics
as varied as the
construction of
national identity,
cultural survival,
representations of
war, community
revival, local and
global economic
stability, food
security, global
warming, and
biodiversity.

8

Introduction

evocative approach to understanding our identity.
In “Canadian Afghanistan War Artist: Canadian
Forces Artists Program (CFAP),” Natasha Costello,
through the art of Karen Bailey, draws attention to
the fact that in 1916 Canada was the first country
in establishing a war art program that allowed for
civilian artists to work alongside Canadian soldiers
on both domestic and oversea operations, and how
the revival of this program in 2011 has ushered
in a new era of Canadian military art. Costello’s
profile of the work of Karen Bailey, which focused
on painting under-recognized members of society
in Afghanistan at the Triage Hospital, based at the
Kandahar Air Field (KAF), serves to remind us of the
difficult and hazardous context to which numerous
Canadians and Afghanis were recently subject.
Based in part on direct communications with the
artist, Costello directs us to the inspiration for
these works, and how this art will immortalize the
immense sacrifices and shape our understanding
of our role in the globe. Saskia Perriard-Abdoh, in
“An Overview of the Great Expulsion, Subsequent
Migrations and Acadian Cultural Persistence”
provides an overview of the historical context
preceding the Great Expulsion which took place
in 1755, and the resulting Acadian population
movements and their impact on the surrounding
landscape. Perriard-Abdoh, noting that while
ancestral lands and ways of life were irrevocably
lost, instead of assimilating into their surroundings
many Acadians retained their values and adapted
to their surroundings as indicated by the renewal
of Acadian culture that can be observed in the
present-day Maritimes and Louisiana—a testament
to the strength and resilience of the Acadian people
and their culture to the present, and a compelling
account of how cultures adapt and survive in
novel ways. In “Increasing Community Economic
Development - Report in Duncan: Strategies for

Seniors, First Nations Partnerships, and the Creative Economy” Bonnie Klohn
provides a background and context to some of the strategies Duncan has
already undertaken to revive the fortunes of this community, then further
examines new innovative strategies that are emerging in the community
economic development, planning and creative economy literature. Using the
insights from this literature Klohn advances novel ideas for this small city
to attract retirees and new immigrants, benefit from the care of seniors, and
strengthen community and economic links with First Nations, delving into
new possibilities to retain and attract young people in an effort to rejuvenate a
community confronted with economic and population decline, ideas that may
benefit many towns and small cities across Canada struggling with similar
situations.
Three of the papers in this collection address pressing global themes. In
“Value of Residential Building Permits for Single Family Dwellings in Canada:
What does the future hold?” Christina Smale, recognizing that there has
been very little research in developing a forecast model to predict the value
of residential building permits, has initiated research to develop a model
that will produce an accurate and reliable forecast of the value of residential
building permits for single family dwellings in Canada. Smale’s testing of
various models is premised on the insight that the successful forecasting of
the permit values in Canada could lead to understanding how these values
change over time and what impacts these values, leading to the ability to
anticipate economic expansions and contractions. In “Does Convergence
Theory Help to Explain Resiliency after Land Reform in Mexican Ejidos?”
Bonnie Klohn utilizes the theory of convergence – suggesting that when a
regional economy’s needs converge with the goods and services its producing,
a more stable and resilient economy results - to understand and evaluate the
prospects for positive outcomes from the dramatic land-use changes emerging
in the Mexican countryside under NAFTA with the dismantling of the Ejido
communal land-holding structure. Klohn’s examination of various cases
draws attention to the potential devastating effects on local food production
and local economic stability arising from increased integration due to free
trade agreements. The issue of global warming and how this may be addressed
is examined by Cody Ponting in “CO2 Sequestration Using Continuous
Microalgae (Chlamydomonas sp.) Culture Linked in Series.” Ponting posits
that by developing a system that is capable of sequestering CO2 emissions by
use of modified algal bioreactors, it would be possible to eliminate current
methods that are often counter productive. For Ponting the overall purpose
of this study is to develop a small-scale model that can be transitioned to an

Proceedings of the 7th Annual Thompson Rivers University Undergraduate Research and Innovation Conference

9

industrial application in hopes of reducing the high levels of gaseous carbon
dioxide in our atmosphere.
Two studies for this collection offer in-depth examinations of the difficulties
of determining either the reproductive processes or the reproductive health
of the plant world that surrounds us. In “Does inbreeding depression occur
in the Sagebrush Buttercup (Ranunculus glaberrimus)?” Sabina Donnelly
observes that inbreeding depression should be considered a growing threat to
population stability as habitat fragmentation due to anthropogenic activities
makes reproduction via out-crossed pollination rarer and more difficult to
achieve. Noting that while the results of this research have provided only
limited evidence that reproductive mode, year of production and type of
flower substantially affects germination, Donnelly states that the results have
revealed potential avenues for future work. Kristin Tilbury, in “Analysis of
Optical Response and Morphological Dimorphisms of Gender Morphs in
an Androdioecious Population of Ranunculus glabberimus ssp. Ellipticus,”
analyzes visual cues including abundance of reproductive parts, and petal
reflectance, and compare these analyses to the frequency of male occurrence
within the Lac du Bois population in order to determine if male flowers rely on
unique visual cues to promote pollinator visits, and in an attempt to elucidate
a correlation between abundance of sexual morphs and dimorphism of petal
reflectance in this rarely observed system. Tilbury observes that additional
research with this population could result in the identification of the visual,
olfactory, or combination of visual-olfactory cues that maintain this population
and could also elucidate a correlation between the gender dimorphism and
specific inherited or genetic trait or traits. Both researchers advance keen
insights into new methods and techniques that may be incorporated into future
research to establish more conclusive results to open up our understanding of
the natural world.
Through these articles our undergraduate researchers have addressed
topics as varied as the construction of “national identity,” cultural survival,
representations of war, community revival, local and global economic stability,
food security, global warming, and biodiversity.
Having had the opportunity to not only organize this conference and
supervise research projects, but to view many students’ presentations and
evaluate research poster displays, we can attest to the incredible pride,
enthusiasm and knowledge of all the students who participated in this
conference. Further recognition must be bestowed upon all the research
supervisors, faculty, administrators and support staff who contributed to this
outcome, for as Kristin Tilbury remarks in her article “This work has been
incredibly interesting…and further work would be incredibly rewarding,
thank you very much for the opportunity.”
10

Introduction

Consistent with our own experiences, we are all confident that none of
these time-consuming research papers could be in its current stage without
the help of the dedicated and committed faculty supervisors. These faculty
mentors not only put their students first, but have also shown that TRU is a
true place for undergraduate research. Additionally, we are pleased that with
the supports of TRU Provost and Vice-President Academic, the dedicated
undergraduate faculty research mentors, Associate Vice-President Research,
Deans, and the supportive team of Research, Innovation and Graduate Studies
Office, this conference and its annual Proceedings have undoubtedly secured
TRU’s reputation in the area of undergraduate research in Canada.
Finally, more than just what we can learn at this moment about our world,
this conference and these articles are a testament to our prospects for the
future. And our future is in good hands.
Editorial Advisory Board of the Proceedings
Dr. Nancy Flood
Dr. Terry Kading
Dr. Mohammad Mahbobi
Dr. Michael Woloszyn

Proceedings of the 7th Annual Thompson Rivers University Undergraduate Research and Innovation Conference

11

Back to the Pantry:
Canada’s Truth is in the Cupboard
Amber Wilson
English and Modern Languages

Supervisor: Ginny Ratsoy
In 2007 Andrew Cohen, a journalist, wrote: “The Canadian Identity, as it
has come to be known, is as elusive as the Sasquatch and Ogopogo. It has
animated—and frustrated—generations of statesmen, historians, writers,
artists, philosophers, and the National Film Board” (3), not to mention a
multitude of students. Canadians are supposed to define themselves and
identify with how they are defined by others— as the “mosaic” of culture:
a stew of ethnic, religious, political and historical ingredients poured into a
bowl and stirred with an assumptive spoon. Here’s the thing— to the average
Canadian, the stew tastes awful. For the most part, we don’t want stew. We
want separate ingredients that each of us may do different things with whether
it results in a soup, salad, sandwich, or soufflé: to create a dish, to write our
own recipes, to taste palatable. If each of us want to be our own amalgamation
of ingredients, it is difficult to see how Canada could identify with a particular
dish. Perhaps that’s the point; perhaps we are a buffet designed to please
everyone, or better yet, perhaps we are a cookbook full of possibilities.
In Canada’s struggle to claim an independent cultural identity— a
vernacular that stands apart from the metanarrative of traditional cultural
stereotypes— there are a substantial number of authors that have attempted
to define what it is to be Canadian through literature. Robert Kroetsch has
grown a new prairie poet intent on moving beyond the parameters of a regular
farm life in Seed Catalogue, George Bowering has re-written the dominantly
patriarchal Western narrative of Cowboys and Indians in Caprice, Aritha van
Herk has rejected all forms of the traditional narrative structure as a mould for
shaping the Canadian identity in No Fixed Address: An Amorous Journey. While
these authors use various techniques to allow for a redefinition of Canadian
culture, it is primarily through the use of humour that Canadian writers are
able to establish a community among their audience—a united front against
the imposition of cultural ‘history’.

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Wilson: Back to the Pantry

Thomas King, in particular, engages with multiple forms of literary
humour such as heavy sarcasm, and rather intense self-depreciation in order
to define his sense of Canadian culture. King’s The Truth About Stories: A Native
Narrative actively rejects stereotypes of culture, specifically European and
American romanticism of the “traditional Indian”, as it applies to Canada.
Written in the way a story is orated, The Truth About Stories refuses to conform
to the traditional structure of literature: King uses story-like tales to raise
issues of spirituality and identity that, while told with an intellectual voice,
retain a level of colloquial language that is easily accessible to everyone. While
King uses the oral tradition to emphasize his own Native culture, like virtually
everything else in each of his novels, the oral narrative acts as a statement
against preconceived notions of cultural identity. King’s narrative technique
relies heavily on a pseudo-soliloquy to relay information rather than resorting
exclusively to structures of the written word: by “‘orally’ pointing out errors
in the written stories” (Bailey 43), King has provided his marginal voice with
greater authority; “the oral narrative strand pokes fun at what becomes the
inflexibility of written texts and the superiority of the…oral story-telling
technique” (43). Within The Truth About Stories, the oral text becomes the
“vehicle through which reality is accurately represented” (Bailey 44).
Orality is closely tied to notions of the vernacular, as an experience is better
explained through word of mouth. Speech adds a level of tone that the written
word often has trouble conveying. For this reason The Truth About Stories is
a highly successful interdisciplinary project. Originally published as a CBC
Massey Lecture, The Truth About Stories was an oral production distributed
to the public via the radio and internet. It is both the “territory of Native oral
literature. And it is the territory of contemporary Native written literature”
(King 114), a merging of both creative and critical writing in order to connect
to the most significant number of people.
Written stories often have trouble being entirely memorable; Robert
Kroetsch attributes this problem to the very fact that written stories are
written: “we silence words by writing them down”(34), removing their ability
to say anything substantial. Regardless of any changes an oral story may go
through, the essence and message remain the same. A good story will not be
forgotten, and it will be repeated by those who not only learned from it, but
also by those who enjoyed hearing it. The conversational tone of King’s oral
form is used as a formative element in the construction of meaning, allowing
readers to come away from The Truth About Stories feeling as though they have
had a genuine human connection.

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This human connection makes King’s orality an efficient promotion of
vernacular culture. The vernacular culture, as outlined by Clarke Mackey in his
“Vernacular Manifesto,” allows for a human collaboration, for the growth and
experience of a home-oriented culture through actively participating within
a community: by telling his readers his stories, rather than allowing them
solely to read the stories on their own, King enables an active participation
in the “conviviality, hospitality, and imagination” (246) represented within
his stories and therefore has started to create his own community through a
shared experience.
While exhibiting similar experiences and issues is entirely necessary in
the establishment of a strong community, trusting the author is a primary
concern, especially if the author is rejecting your knowledge of existing
cultures and denouncing that knowledge as stereotype. King (like a great
many Canadian writers), must be able to relieve the tensions surrounding his
issues, while building rapport with his readers. The most effective way for
King to do this is exactly the method he employs: self-deprecation. Human
beings are more inclined to trust other humans that make fun of themselves,
whether it be out of pity for the paltry existence described by the author or
out of an admiration for the author’s confidence. Either way, King’s multiple
jokes about his Native culture work not to offend his readers, but to make
his culture more accessible. By making constant references to the Indian we
know, or the Indian we think we know, as “Shadow Indians. Grey Indians.
Not really Indians at all” (King 140) that regain status from a government that
had historically tried to breed them out, King reinforces the instability of an
assigned cultural identity while allowing the reader to laugh at the shadowy
dominance of cultural metanarratives.
King appeals to a large variety of readers, particularly but not strictly
Canadian readers, by making his stories universal— thereby are expanding
his community. A concern for cultural identity is engrained within The Truth
About Stories. Culture is expected to be a combination of inherited ideas,
values, knowledge, and beliefs which characterize a shared society— it is not
the notion that ideas, values, knowledge, and beliefs have the ability to define
a culture that is the issue, instead the problems arise from the suggestion that
these features are inherited. For King and many other Canadian authors, the
problem with finding a Canadian identity is rooted here: if our shared society
is inherited it is difficult to define it for ourselves. Therein lies a dominant
dilemma: where there has been an excessive amount of concern for a definition
of cultural identity it is, as Robert Kroetsch suggests, perhaps not the “task of
the Canadian writer to give names to [their] experiences, to be the namer... on
the contrary, it is [their] task to un-name” (58). Canada is calling for a fresh

14

Wilson: Back to the Pantry

identity because she has spent far too much time in the shadows of Europe,
and the United States, being grouped as a British colony, or as an obedient
neighbour to America. As such,
in recent years the tension between this appearance of being just
like someone else and the demands of authenticity has become
intolerable— both to individuals and to the society. In recent
Canadian fiction the major writers resolve the paradox— the painful
tension between appearance and authenticity— by the radical
process of demythology zing the systems that threaten to define
them. Or, more comprehensively, they uninvent the world (58).
The Truth About Stories subscribes to this re-inventing of a Canadian identity
by “undermin[ing] the authoritative narratives by raising questions about
their primacy” (Andrews 69). One particular story enlightens King’s readers
as to why the image of the “traditional Indian” is particularly dominant in the
world’s mindset: in the early twentieth century, a British photographer by the
name of Edward Sheriff Curtis set out to document the image of the North
American Indian before it vanished, ending up with more than forty-thousand
negatives (King 32). Some twenty-two hundred images were published and
sold to the intrigued public back in Britain and on other continents. Fortythousand images! Twenty-two hundred prints! And the images were taken
from across North America, so the amount of primary material available to
define the culture was substantial. The world was able to develop a cultural
image for the North American Indian, an image that remains the dominant
idea of what an “Indian” looks like. However, King denounces Curtis’ work
as a viable source to base a cultural identity on, as Curtis’ work is based
on deception. In order to ensure a proper portrayal of the “dying Indian”
Curtis “took along boxes of ‘Indian’ paraphernalia- wigs, blankets, painted
backdrops, clothing- in case he ran into Indians who did not look as the Indian
was supposed to look” (34). King rejects the presumed supremacy of the
cultural definitions put in place by those outside of Canada and in so doing
“induces cultural resistance to the dominance of nation” (Andrews 609) and
prevents the “assimilation of Native tribal customs and traditions [such as
orality] into a discourse of Eurocentric nationhood” (Andrews 601).
The sarcasm and aloof tone of King’s orality allow the audience to digest
this inauthentic attribution of cultural identity without becoming drastically
offended. By making his audience laugh, King has not only made cultural
‘statistics’ blatantly inauthentic, but has also played upon the sense of
community established among his readers. Although King applies the
dishonesty of cultural fabrication in terms of a primarily Native experience,

Proceedings of the 7th Annual Thompson Rivers University Undergraduate Research and Innovation Conference

15

the personal oral story-like style lends itself well to the human experience.
King uses a kind of metafiction— “which is, in some dominant and
constituitive way, self-referential and autopresentational” (Hutcheon 228)—
that represents something beyond a post-colonial Canadian need to reclaim
the past (Eagleton 15) and is instead a social, historical, and ideological
discourse that is a “discourse as en[u]nciation” (Hutcheon 236), allowing the
“reader’s realization of their equally essential discursive identity” (237).
The Truth About Stories makes a persuasive argument to suggest that there
is little truth to “history,” and that there is less cultural identity in a national
textbook than there is hidden within an everyday conversation between
community members. King, along with Kroetsch and many other Canadian
authors, suggests, most convincingly, that seeking a reiteration of factual basis
is the most effective way to attempt a new recipe for cultural vernacular— that
working with the ingredients is far more rewarding than the same old stew.
Rather than following the assumed story of Canadian culture, it is possible
that changing our stories changes our world; vary the way in which you use
the ingredients and you have a veritable record of recipes. For Thomas King,
for Canadians, and arguably for humanity, there is no set definition of culture;
Canadian culture changes from person to person, a vernacular individuality
that each person can relate to: stories provoke an intimate knowledge of each
other’s culture as “the truth about stories is that that’s all we are” (King 2). l

References
Andrews, Jennifer and Priscilla L. Watson. “Rethinking Canadian and American
Nationality: Indigeneity and the 49th Parallel in Thomas King”. American Literary
History. 18.3 (2006). 600-617. Web. 22 Nov. 2011. <<http://alh.oxfordjournals.org/>>
Bailey, Sharon. “The Arbitrary Nature of the Story: Poking Fun at the Oral and Written
Authority in Thomas King’s ‘Green Grass, Running Water’. World Literature Today. 73.1
(1999): 43-52. Web. 22 Nov. 2011. <<http://www.jstor.org/stable/40154474>>
Cohen, Andrew. The Unfinished Canadian: The People We Are. Toronto:
McClelland & Stewart, 2007.
Eagleton, Terry. Literary Theory: An Introduction. Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1983.
Hutcheon, Linda. “Canadian Historiographic Metafiction”. Essays on Canadian Writing.
PMLA, 1984-1985. Web. 4 Nov. 2011.
<<http://www.web.ebscohost.com.ezproxy.tru.ca>>
King, Thomas. The Truth About Stories: A Native Narrative. Toronto:
House of Anansi Press, 2003.
Kroetsch, Robert. Seed Catalogue. Calary: Red Deer Press, 2005. “Unhiding the Hidden”.
The Lovely Treachery of Words: Essays Selected Old and New. Oxford: Oxford University
Press, 1989. 58-63.
Mackey, Clarke. “A Vernacular Manifesto”. Random Acts of Culture: Reclaiming Art and
Community in the 21st Century. Between the Lines, 2010. 238-246.

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Wilson: Back to the Pantry

Community Economic Development
Report for Duncan:
Strategies for Seniors, First Nations
Partnerships, and the Creative Economy
Bonnie Klohn
Interdisciplinary Studies

Supervisor: Dr. Laura Lamb

Abstract
The City of Duncan is facing several major problems in terms of long-term municipal
sustainability and prosperity, including a declining forestry sector, an aging population, and
the decline of businesses in the downtown core. Duncan already has a well-established network
of basic community economic development networks, so the suggestions in this report are meant
to address weaknesses and threats to Duncan’s economy with ideas based on Duncan’s strengths
and opportunities that have not been previously tried.
The overarching strategy used is based on business development (Blakely and Bradshaw, 2002).
There are three main short term goals set out in this plan. First, attracting seniors to boost
economic activities; second, increasing partnerships with neighbouring First Nations and
finally supporting business development services already in place in the area. In the long term
there are four main goals: (1) maintaining the “downtown core” status within the Cowichan
Valley, (2) increasing the creative economy in Duncan, (3) attracting skilled immigrants and,
(4) supporting Economic Development Cowichan’s efforts to attract the film industry to Duncan
and the Cowichan Valley.
This report is meant to give a background and context to some of the strategies Duncan
is already undertaking, as well as new innovative strategies that are emerging in community
economic development and planning literature. One of the primary contributions this report
makes to the existing information on economic development in Duncan is the focus on
ameliorating and using the creative economy in the long term to retain young people in the city;
a new field of study in planning literature, particularly pertaining to cities the size of Duncan.
In addition, an overt examination of the important role senior’s care will provide economically
in the city is a significant contribution to the existing concepts on planning for economic
development in Duncan. Finally, a look at how Duncan can take advantage of the principles
behind some recent research on First Nations economic development opportunities might benefit
all communities in the area as well. A feasibility study would be required to prioritize and assess
the costs and benefits of each of the strategies and goals suggested in this report.

Proceedings of the 7th Annual Thompson Rivers University Undergraduate Research and Innovation Conference

17

Introduction
Duncan’s economy has been traditionally reliant on the forestry sector in the
Cowichan Valley. Recently, the forestry sector has slowed, resulting in fewer
jobs in the nearby pulp and papers industry. Economic shifts like this can
represent an opportunity to innovate and create a new identity that better
prepares Duncan for the changes that are taking place on a global scale. There
are many areas in which Duncan is doing very well in terms of development.
Their “solar community” policies (Solar BC, 2008), walkable landscape
(Ireland, 2012) and the participation in the community (Canadian Council
on Learning, 2012) are already strong aspects of Duncan that don’t need
changing. In this paper I will discuss how Duncan can encourage business
development in innovative ways that haven’t already been pursued by the
city, and offer some context in terms of literature on development strategies.
This plan highlights, among other things, a healthy and supportive place for
seniors to retire in, partnerships and inclusivity to the neighbouring First
Nations population and a business development strategy based on creativity
that will continue to attract young people and families in the long term.

Methodology
This report is meant to apply concepts in planning literature to Duncan, B.C.
The four strategies outlined in Blakely and Bradshaw’s 2002 book Planning
Local Economic Development, (locality development, business development,
human resources development and community based development) are used
as a starting point for the analysis of appropriate and potentially effective
economic development activities. Research on Duncan was completed using
the Statistics Canada Community Profile and other available Statistics Canada
data. In addition, a web and print search was completed to access information
about Duncan, the Cowichan Valley area and the First Nations communities
in the region. Furthermore, an interview was conducted with Tim Ireland,
the Chief Executive Administrator of Duncan. A literature review of theories,
concepts and case studies in development planning was then conducted, based
on Duncan’s identified strengths and weakenesses in economic development
in the short and long term.

Community Economic Development Strategies
Blakely and Bradshaw (2002) suggest four overarching strategies to consider
in local economic development: locality development, business development,
human resources development and community based development. While

18

Klohn: Community Economic Development Report for Duncan

elements of all four strategies will be used in the strategic plan for Duncan, the
primary focus of economic development will be business development. The
changes in Duncan reflect Blakely and Bradshaw’s assessment that “business
development is the most important component of local economic planning
because the attraction, creation or retention of business activities is the best
way to build or maintain a healthy local economy” (p. 217). There are several
reasons that this is particularly true for Duncan. The population in Duncan is
growing significantly in age groups over 75 (Statistics Canada, 2006). This will
be its main challenge in the long term but perhaps its main opportunity in the
near future. As the baby boomers eventually stop moving to Duncan from
the surrounding areas, Duncan will need to have an age demographic that
is much more diversified than it is now in order to avoid serious population
decline. In addition, the numerous resident retirees result in a participation
rate that is just above 50% in Duncan, which is much lower than the provincial
average (ibid). Young people are needed to ensure that current Duncan
businesses stay. The best way to attract and retain young people is by offering
viable career options.
Blakely and Bradshaw’s other strategies will come into play, especially
community development in the arts as a form of new business activities.
Human resource development is suggested only for a few specific areas.
Locality development is less important in Duncan as it is one of the smallest
municipalities in BC, is already very walkable and contains the only truly
distinct downtown center in the Cowichan Valley. It holds much more locality
attraction than the surround area already. Duncan’s needs revolve primarily
around attracting new business.

The Business Development Plan
This plan consists of both long term and short-term strategies. The long-term
suggestions such as fostering the creative industry and attracting skilled
immigrants to Duncan take longer to properly complete, perhaps upwards
of 15 years, while short-term strategies are meant to be achievable in the 1-5
year timespan.

Short-term Strategies
Seniors as an economic advantage
As mentioned above, in the short term seniors can play an important role in
bolstering the local economy. The influx of seniors due to the baby boomer
generation can provide high quality jobs in health care, and, as the need for

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19

care increases as seniors in the Cowichan Valley age, Duncan is the logical
spot for families in the area to seek out higher level care for their parents
or grandparents.
Attract Retirees: Marketing Strategies
Attracting retirees to communities has been the focus of many development
strategies for small cities, particularly in the southern Unites States. One
strategy is to reach out to seniors through traditional marketing methods.
Billboards, mail outs and newspaper ads promoting geographic qualities
seniors look for, such as temperate climates, availability of health services and
easy access to transportation, can help cities draw retirees (Reeder, Hopper,
& Thompson, 1994). On the other hand, some cities have focused on building
amenities first in order to attract seniors. Planned seniors villages offer a
“build it and they will come” strategy to cities that are hoping to reap the
economic benefits of the retirement age demographic (ibid). Duncan has little
room to build an entire seniors village, so making sure it is well known in the
Cowichan Valley and the rest of Vancouver island that Duncan has all the
amenities necessary for seniors (including a temperate climate and walkable
city) would be the most helpful tool for attracting seniors.
Communication with Seniors
In order to properly care for seniors, and therefore to attract them to come to
Duncan, the city might want to aid in helping seniors connect with services.
Seniors often have a poor awareness of the services that may be able to help
with day-to-day tasks, with rent subsidization, other financial support and
transportation, making the transition from their previous lifestyle difficult
(Ryser & Halseth, 2011). Some techniques that Duncan can use to overcome
this problem include: supporting the collation of important information in
the form of a newsletter, newspaper or information packages for seniors;
providing information to seniors via the professionals that already provide
home care services, such as book delivery services through the library;
sending letters to seniors in the mail; two way dialogues such as workshops
and educational meetings; addressing limited resources of not-for-profits
that are trying to provide services by providing them with free advertising,
or supporting pooling resources with other not-for-profits for mail-outs;
provide resource information at natural gathering places like doctors offices,
community centers and the library; and finally, websites can be a valuable
resource for many seniors, particularly if they are accompanied with some
basic training on computer use (ibid).

20

Klohn: Community Economic Development Report for Duncan

Training Programs for Care Aids
Duncan’s two community colleges already offer programs for residential
home care attendants, and practical nursing (Linx BC, 2009). However, it may
help to provide further assurance seniors will receive proper care if there were
an ample number of trained professionals in this field. Duncan may want to
aid the colleges in promoting these programs either by providing in-kind
advertising space or scholarships for students that plan to enter into these
careers and stay in the area.
First Nations
For a city like Duncan whose populations are rapidly increasing in age, the
First Nations reserves nearby represents a much needed group of people in
a family age demographics. The average age of the First Nations population
is much younger than the population in Duncan (Jack, No Date), and the
potential for partnerships in economic development with the city may be an
opportunity to explore mutually beneficial ventures.
Partnerships with Khowutzun Development Corporation
The Cowichan Valley First Nation has an Aboriginal Financial Organization
called the Khowutzun Development Corporation (KDC). They have been
very successful in helping aboriginal enterprise succeed, and helping to create
jobs for Cowichan Frist Nations. For example, KDC won a Council for the
Advancement of Native Development Officers (CANDO) aboriginal economic
development recognition award for their role in support the start up of an
aboriginal company Khowutzun Mustimuhw Contractors, who install natural
gas pipeline in residential areas on Vancouver Island (Classen, 2000). The
KDC also helps aboriginal people obtain employment in the forestry industry,
owns a First Nations Village where visitors can come and learn about the
aboriginal people in the area, and supports other first nations businesses such
as a kitchen and bath center (Khowutzun Development Corporation, 2007).
This type of economic activity, that helps people close to Duncan, is very
beneficial for maintaining populations in the city over the long term. Building
partnerships with the Cowichan Indian Band may help Duncan to be able to
market to businesses that need a bigger workforce than Duncan has to offer
itself. To this end, Duncan might want to train a liaison person to work with
the KDC. Organizations like the National Aboriginal Capital Corporations
Association (NACCA), Aboriginal Financial Officers Association of Canada
(AFOA), and CANDO all offer classes that can accessed either online or
through some post-secondary institutions, that help people working in the

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field the intricacies of First Nations Finance (Oppenheimer, O’Connell, & Weir,
2012). Although Duncan wouldn’t have access to the same fund as aboriginal
organizations, it would benefit the city to partner in attracting firms.
First Nations Education
Currently Vancouver Island University (VIU) offers the first two years of a
four-year degree in Native Indian Teacher Education (Vancouver Island
University Cowichan, 2012). Given the much-needed potential work force the
aboriginal youth near Duncan represent, teaching and education is extremely
important. Lobbying VIU to offer this degree as their first full four-year degree
on the Cowichan Campus might help to greatly reduce the barriers that exist
for those considering the program.

Long Term Strategies
In the long term, Duncan will have to rely on more than the influx of aging
seniors and the neighboring First Nations groups. Duncan needs to attract
citizens that will continue to contribute to its tax base and provide an important
active workforce. There are several ways to foster a business climate that will
allow for opportunities that will attract people to Duncan and retain current
residents. Duncan’s location, directly between Victoria and Nanaimo, is an
advantageous factor for business development such as this (Reimer, 2006).
However, public policy needs to reflect the modern changing economic
context and focus on making Duncan a city that can survive on more than
forestry alone.
Business Climate Tools
An article by Chatman et al. (2008) showed factors that increased the
perception of entrepreneurial climate for entrepreneurs in the area included
fair treatment within communities, the a higher level of local patronage,
the availability fo business networks and high speed internet. Start-up and
venture financing programs like Community Futures, which serves as a
Community Development Finance Instition (CDFI) in the Duncan region
might help to attract and retain business owners in the city (Blakely &
Bradshaw, 2002). Economic Development Cowichan might want to do more
mentorship programming and training for small business management to help
prevent the failure of new businesses that is so commonly due to improper
management (ibid).

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Klohn: Community Economic Development Report for Duncan

Duncan as a Downtown Core for the Cowichan Valley
Duncan is the primary downtown core for the Cowichan Valley, a region
that is home to over 80,000 people. Maintaining this role will be extremely
important for Duncan to prosper, however, there are already indicators that
Duncan currently doesn’t allocate enough resources to its downtown core.
The first indicator is the location quotient for business services and finance
and real estate, which are 0.63 and 0.62 respectively (Statistics Canada, 2006).
This indicates that Duncan actually has less of the services normally found in
a downtown core than the rest of BC. Business services in Duncan fell 12.8%
compared to the total economy in BC, and fell 14.3% compared to the same
industry in BC. This shows that as a business service center Duncan is loosing
its comparative advantage. The real estate and finance industry show very
similar trends compared to BC. Retail trade and health care and social service
locations quotients are quite healthy, which is positive, but regardless, it
would be in the best interest of the municipality to try to bolster its downtown
business activities.
Sense of place is very important in a downtown core. Robertson (2000)
discusses techniques for increasing character of a downtown core which will
in turn attract businesses and new residents to the city. Downtowns must
have a distinctly different from the surrounding area, show the heritage of a
city, and be extremely multifunctional (shopping, eating, workplaces, diverse
service and goods businesses). Any downtown core should be walkable,
and have a strong sense of human activity, and areas to linger such as coffee
shops, sitting spaces, music and games like chess available for people to take
advantage of. Blakely and Bradshaw (2002) talk about this type of locality
development as a means to attract business, but for Duncan, it is a strategy to
maintain the current businesses in the area, as well as attract new ones.
Duncan’s Creative Economy
Many cities the size of Duncan have to reinvent themselves in particularly
creative ways to create a sense of place. Bell and Jayne (2006) call placing
making practices such as Duncan’s totem pole collection Unique Selling
Points (USP). Duncan is obviously using this USP to make a name for itself,
however, there are many things Duncan can do to go above and beyond in
creating a unique culture that fosters businesses that are unique, creative and
beneficial for the whole community.

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Fairly recently, the notion of the “creative economy” has emerged in
the city and community planning literature. In addition “there has been
growing recognition of the role that the arts and artists play in economic
and community development” (Grodach, 2010: 74). The development of the
arts sector provides essential skilled labour, as well as attracts more highly
educated and skilled people to settle in the area (Florida, 2003; Grodach,
2010). A creative city attracts a core of musicians, engineers, cultural sectors
workers or highly trained problem solvers, which in turn fosters businesses
with local linkages as well as the capacity to access far reaching markets.
Florida attributes success in creativity to the three T’s: tolerance, technology,
and talent. This theory has been shown to be quite accurate for correlations
with actual economic growth (ibid.).
Contrary to Florida’s prescription for success, between 2001 and 2006
Duncan saw arts, culture and recreation drop 70% (Statistics Canada, 2006).
Developing a healthy arts sector has both the direct benefit of providing jobs
and revenue for local citizens, as well as the indirect benefit of increasing the
aesthetic value of the municipality land itself (Phillips, 2004; Florida, 2003;
Grodach, 2010). There are some specific tools that municipalities can use
to foster a more robust arts center such as providing arts spaces, grants for
art cooperatives and bringing together arts and tourism through branding
initiatives (see Phillips, 2004; Grodach, 2010).
Attracting Immigrants for Population and Cultural Diversification
An influx of immigrants can be extremely beneficial for a small city like
Duncan for a few reasons. First, as the population ages, immigrants can provide
an inflow of young people that help boost the workforce. In particular, skilled
immigrants can be a major attraction to businesses considering locating in the
area. Secondly, cultural diversity increases the attractiveness of a city to other
educated skilled workers. Culture and diversity are a big part of what attracts
young educated people to cities such as Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal
(Florida, 2003; also see Walton-Roberts, 2005). Although small cities function
differently than these large Canadian metropolises, slowly diversifying the
age and cultural demographic of Duncan over a 10 to 15 year period will have
many long-term benefits. The city of Duncan should consider partnering with
organization that might be able to provide funding for new Canadians in the
area or advocating for more government funding for immigrant service in
the area.

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Klohn: Community Economic Development Report for Duncan

Cowichan Valley Film Industry
Cultivating a creative industry not only makes sense in terms of attracting
business, it fits in with Economic Development Cowichan’s current programs
that strongly encourage the film industry in the area. Artists and film makers
in a creative city, if managed correctly, have the potential to draw both workers
and tourist from BC and the rest of Canada. Duncan is very well suited for this
because of its proximity to Vancouver, a major North American film locale,
and to other tourist destinations on Vancouver Island (such as Victoria and
Tofino). Duncan will be able to attract visitors while they are already in the
area. Blakely and Bradshaw (2002) warn that tourism as a tool for economic
development is not appropraite in all cities, however, because of its geographic
location and temperate climate it would greatly benefit Duncan to support
Economic Development Cowichan’s efforts in increasing film and tourism in
the area.

Conclusion
Duncan is fortunate because many of the business development
strategies that Blakely and Bradshaw suggest are already covered either by
the municipality, Economic Development Cowichan or the development
organizations it supports such as Community Futures. In addition, Duncan
is doing well in terms of sustainability planning, and most social programs.
However, given the decline in the forestry sector, the indicators in the
socio-economic overview suggesting that Duncan is losing its strength as a
downtown core for businesses in the Cowichan Valley, the aging population,
and the loss of employment in the arts sector in Duncan, this report will
hopefully emphasize strategies that are new to Duncan as a development
tactics. Ultimately, in the long term Duncan will need to think outside the box
to survive the loss that the end of the baby boomer generation will represent.
In fifteen years time, the cities that are thriving will be the ones that have
managed to diversify away from the tradition economies in small towns,
and carved a unique niche for themselves. Using seniors and First Nations
partnerships in the short term to stabalize the loss of income from the forestry
sector, and capatalizing on Duncan’s geography in a populous yet spread out
region in the long term will put the city in a good position to reinvent itself as
a creative, cultural, tourist friendly community. l

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Florida, R. (2003). Cities and the Creative Class. City and Community, 2(1), 3-19.
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Ireland, T. (2012, February 8). (B. Klohn, Interviewer) Duncan, BC, Canada.
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Lachman, K. (No Date). Business Facts. (E. D. Cowichan, Producer) Retrieved March 16,
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Lamb, L. (2008). Opportunities and Challenges: What does the New Economy have to Offer
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Linx BC. (2009). Site Selection Guide. Cowichan Valley Regional District. Duncan, BC:
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Oppenheimer, R., O’Connell, T., & Weir, W. (2012). Training Opportunities in Aboriginal
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Rausch, A. (2009). Capitalizing on Creativity in Rural Areas: National and Local Branding
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Value of Residential Building Permits
for Single Family Dwellings in Canada:
What does the future hold?
Christina Smale
Economics

Supervisor: Dr. Mohammad Mahbobi

Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to develop a model that will produce an accurate and reliable forecast
of the value of residential building permits for single family dwellings in Canada. In light of the
most recent Canadian recession, it is more important to examine the dynamics between many
variables on the economy that could indicate economic downturn. Amongst many variables
that can be considered in determining the state of the economy, the value of residential building
permits for single family dwellings is one of the most significant indicators. These values vary
as a result of fluctuations in the number of permits, mortgage interest rates, inflationary and
deflationary pressures, as well as contractions and expansions of the economy. A slump in the
housing market, as seen in late 2008 economic contraction, can be a strong indicator that the
economy is entering or already in a recession. Thus, accurate forecasts of the value of building
permits in Canada could lead to a better understanding of the state of the economy and be
helpful in anticipating economic expansions and contractions. This research utilized historical
quarterly data from first quarter of 1993 to the first quarter of 2011. The combination of the
estimated multiple regression and Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
(ARIMA) model produced the most improved and reliable forecasts for the value of residential
building permits of single family dwellings in Canada.

Introduction
In light of the most recent recession in Canada, it is important to understand
the general effects of many variables on the economy that could indicate
downturn. There are many variables in the economy that can be considered
useful in determining the state of the economy. The change in the value
of residential building permits for single family dwellings is the results of
changes in the number of permits, mortgage interest rates, inflationary and
deflationary pressures, as well as contractions and expansions in the growth
of the economy. A slump in the housing market, as was seen in the recent

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Smale: Value of Residential Building Permits for Single Family Dwellings in Canada

economic contraction can be a strong indicator that the economy is entering
or already in a recession. Therefore, the successful forecasting of the permit
values in Canada could lead to understanding how these values change over
time, what impacts these values and thus lead to the ability to anticipate
economic expansions and contractions.
The purpose of this paper is to develop a model that will produce an
accurate and reliable forecast of the value of residential building permits for
single family dwellings in Canada. The topics of this paper have been broken
down as follows. First, a brief introduction to the data set and a short literature
review on the subject area. Second, will be an examination of some forecasting
techniques which include multiple regression, time-series decomposition and
Box-Jenkins. Third, these techniques will be combined to determine if the
forecasts can be improved by combining these models. Finally, the model that
provided the most reliable results was chosen to forecast the permit values for
the next twelve quarters.

Data Set
This research utilizes historical quarterly data from first quarter of 1993 to
the first quarter of 2011. This data was obtained from the Bank of Canada
and Statistics Canada website. The following variables were collected from
Statistics Canada: average value of residential building permits for single
family dwellings (026-0001), average residential mortgage lending rate (1760043), growth rate of gross domestic product at market prices (380-0015),
unemployment rates for age 15 and over (282-0087), and population (0510005). The core inflation rate was attained from the Bank of Canada.

Literature Review
There has been very little research in developing a forecast model to predict
the value of residential building permits. There has, however, been research in
the field of housing starts and housing prices.
One such study which was concerned with developing an econometric
model of house prices in Hong Kong. These researchers found that housing
prices are sensitive to population growth which “puts direct pressure on
the demand for housing services” and interest rates which when they are
declining leads to appreciation of the price of houses “making rental housing
relatively less expensive”. Another factor this study determined had an
impact on the house prices was inflation. When inflation rises it leads to an
increase in home ownership rates “because of the tax deductibility of interest
expense compared to rental costs” leading to higher demand for houses. The
inflation also increases the prices of these homes which attracts investors as
Proceedings of the 7th Annual Thompson Rivers University Undergraduate Research and Innovation Conference

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“residential property was viewed as favorable investments to hedge against
inflation”. (Tse, Ho, & Ganesan, 1996)
In another study, that looked at forecasting the growth of construction
markets where the factors considered were the Gross Domestic Product,
interest rates, population growth and unemployment rate. It was noted that
GDP Growth leads to construction output showing “a causal link between
the economy and the construction sector”. The interest rates influence the
lending costs and thus a higher interest rate implies higher costs to clients,
contractors and buyers and thus has negative effects on the construction
market. In addition, the unemployment rate signals whether the economy
is healthy or not which can have a significant impact on the construction
market. The population also has a strong influence on the market because it
“could generate a demand for new infrastructure and construction facilities to
accommodate” the change in demographics and population migration. (Fan,
Thomas, & Wong, 2011)
In considering these factors and their relationship to housing prices, it is
safe to assume that these factors also impact the value of residential building
permits of the said houses since the number of housing starts and the value of
the permits for those starts relate to the price of the houses.

Methodology
Multiple Regression
The first model utilized is multiple regression which examines the relationship
between a dependent variable and a number of independent variables. As the
purpose of this research is to find a model that will accurately forecast the
value of residential building permits of single family dwellings, this will be
considered the dependent variable. A sign of economic downturn in the recent
recession was a slump in the Canadian housing market that led to a decrease
in the number and value of residential building permits in particular those of
single family dwellings. As such, this is considered an important indicator of
economic conditions in Canada.
The permit value represents the value of a single family dwelling, thus as
mortgage interest rates rise the cost of owning a home increases. Larger homes
naturally have higher permit values and thus if the cost of owning a home
rises, the number and size of homes would fall and thus the average value of
permits would fall for that period. In addition, there may be some willing to
take out a permit to build a smaller home due to the increased mortgage rates
and thus the values of permits would fall.
As general prices increase in the economy, the cost of building materials
would likely follow and this increase in cost would tend to raise the value
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Smale: Value of Residential Building Permits for Single Family Dwellings in Canada

of the building permits. The best indicator of this price increase is the core
inflation rate, as it represents the consumer price index less the most volatile
components, one of which is the mortgage interest rates, thus by choosing
the core inflation rather than the CPI inflation rate one can avoid correlation
between this variable and the mortgage interest variable. In other words,
one can observe the separate impact that these two variables have on the
permit values.
In terms of the impact the state of the economy has on the permit values,
I choose to incorporate both the growth rate of gross domestic product
and the total unemployment rate. As the economy experiences growth the
values of the permits would increase simply due to expansion. With regards
to the unemployment rate, the general assumption would be that as the
unemployment rate increases this would lead to a decrease in the permit values
– one reason being the inability of those who were previously employed to
build homes and thus as the number of permits decreases so would the value.
Another reason, is the combined effect of an increase in unemployment and a
decrease in the GDP growth rate which is often an indicator of a recessionary
period in the economy. Thus, with these coinciding values would lead to an
overall decrease in the values of permits.
The final variable used in this model was the population. Due to the rules
of supply and demand, as the population increases there is increased demand
for single family dwellings and this pushes up the cost of supplying homes,
and thus increases the value of the permits needed to provide those homes.
A common problem with time-series data is heteroskedasticity which can
lead to incorrectly interpretation of regression results. A widely used test for
this problem is the White Test. The results of this test are shown in Appendix,
Chart 1; which were obtained using Eviews 6 software. The p-value for the
F-statistic was 0.0554, and thus when tested at the 95% confidence level results
in the rejection of the null hypothesis. This means that if a simple multiple
regression model were to be used, heteroskedasticity would exist. However,
to prevent this from being an issue the multiple regression model used was
one in which the logarithm of the dependent variable was taken.
L_VALUE=f(MIR,INF,GROWTH,POP,UNEMP)
Where:
L_VALUE represents the logarithm of the value of residential building
permits for single family dwellings
MIR represents the average residential mortgage lending rate
INF represents the core inflation rate
GROWTH represents the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product at
market prices
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POP represents the population
UNEMP represents the total unemployment rate
The results of this model were obtained from ForecastX software and are
given in Table 1. The p-values conclude that all the variables are significant
to the model when tested at the 95% confidence level. The coefficients are
consistent with the assumptions outlined above, with mortgage lending rate
and unemployment having a negative relationship with permit values and
the inflation, GDP growth and population having a positive relationship with
permit values. Although, in this table the population shows as a coefficient of
0.000, its actual value is 1.349E-7; the impact is quite small but is significant
to the model. When the model is run without the population the adjusted R2
falls. In the current model the adjusted R2 is 82.07%, which demonstrates that
82.07% of the variation in permit values is explained by the variables in the model.

The forecasted values for the log-linear model are as follows:
Since this was a forecasted permit values were in the logarithm form, I
performed an anti-log calculation to show the actual permit values forecasted
by this model.

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Smale: Value of Residential Building Permits for Single Family Dwellings in Canada

Time Series Decomposition
The second technique utilized in this paper, is the time series decomposition.
Unlike multiple regression which has a dependent variable and several
independent explanatory variables, time series decomposition uses only the
variable one is attempting to forecast. It attempts to determine the patterns
that exist in the historical data, then applies those patterns to the forecast.
This type of model breaks the variable down into its component parts; that
is, trend, cyclical, seasonal and irregular. Typically, irregular is assumed to
be equal to one, as it is the most difficult to predict. In this case, the model is
applied to the value of permits. When the permit values are plotted against
time, there is an obvious pattern that exists in the data – see Figure 1. There
are two patterns that appear to exist in this data series. The first is seasonality,
which is identifiable due to the consistent increases and decreases occurring
the same time each year. The second is trend, which can be seen as the data
tends to move upward. The time series decomposition model will identify
these patterns and attempt to produce a forecast the permit values twelve
quarters into the future with these patterns.

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The first thing the model does is remove the short-run fluctuations, that is,
it calculates the seasonal indexes. In this case, these seasonal indexes were as
follows: Quarter 1 = 0.77, Quarter 2 = 1.28, Quarter 3 = 1.10 and Quarter 4 =
0.85. This means that in the first quarter of each year the permit values are 23%
below average, in the second quarter they are 28% above average, the third
quarter values are 10% above average and the values are 15% below average
in the fourth quarter.
The second thing the model does is determine the long-term trend within
the data. Figure 2 shows the permit values, centered moving average and the
centered moving average trend. As one can see from this figure, there is clearly
a positive trend existing in the data which means the permit values increase
through time. The reason for this trend is not covered in this type of model,
however, as demonstrated in the previous multiple regression models this
increase is likely due to inflation, growth in GDP, and increase in population.
There may be other factors affecting this trend, but they will not be covered
in this research.

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Smale: Value of Residential Building Permits for Single Family Dwellings in Canada

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35

Once the seasonality and trend have been determined, the next thing
the model looks for is the cyclical factors. See Figure 3 which shows a clear
wavelike pattern. A cyclical factor of greater than one indicates that the
deseasonalized values are above the long-term trend for that period, while
the opposite is true when the cyclical factor is less than one. This is a difficult
component to project into the future as the length and amplitude are generally
inconsistent over time. However, this is a very important piece to economists
as it can be an indicator of future economic conditions.
The results of this forecast technique are as follows. The mean absolute
percentage error was 4.60%. The R2 showed that was 97.49% of the variation
in the model is explained by the trend, seasonal and cyclical factors shown;
it is safe to assume that the remaining variation is coming from the irregular
component. And the root mean square error is 86,490.19.
Box-Jenkins
The multiple regression models used exogenous factors to predict the value
of permits; this model is called a causal model. However, there are many
situations that these determinants are either unknown or not available and
in these cases one can make use of another forecasting technique called
autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and is found using the
Box-Jenkins methodology. It looks at the historical pattern in the data and
using the most recent observations will analyze errors in the forecast to adjust
the time periods in the future. It essentially finds a model that results in the
residuals that are left over being white noise or purely random numbers that
are normally and independently distributed.

36

Smale: Value of Residential Building Permits for Single Family Dwellings in Canada

Table 3 shows the results of this model. The ARIMA model that was chosen
by the software was ARIMA(2,0,0)*(0,1,1) and is interpreted as follows. The
first three numbers represent the non-seasonal portion of the data, which
required 2 lag periods of the autoregressive term, no differencing and no lag
in the moving average term. The second set of three numbers represents the
seasonal aspect of the data. There were no lags in the seasonal level of the
autoregressive term, one level of seasonal differencing and one lag in the
seasonal level of the moving average term.
The adjusted R2 for this model is 92.33%, which means that the majority
of the variation in permit values is explained in this technique. The mean
absolute percentage error is 7.94%, which is higher than that for the timeseries decomposition model. The root mean square is also higher than that for
decomposition, at 149,087.39 compared to 86,490.19. This demonstrates that
the time series decomposition appears to be the better model in this case.

Combination of Forecasts
The general procedure for choosing the best forecast of the same value is to take
the forecast technique that results in lower root mean square error. Typically the
models with higher errors are discarded. However, this is does not seem like
a rational method because each technique makes use of valuable information
and relationships that may be lost when a model is discarded. Therefore, it is
a common practice to use a technique that combines different forecasts of the
same value in order to make use of the information and relationships from
each forecast in order to produce a more accurate model with reduced errors.
Thus, the combined model in theory should have more predictive power than
the individual forecasts. Four different combination models will be performed
in this paper: multiple regression with time series decomposition, multiple
regression with Box-Jenkins, time series decomposition with Box-Jenkins, and
one that combines all three techniques.
Since the multiple regression model chosen in this research was a loglinear model, thus the forecasted values are the logarithm of the permit
values. In order to combine this regression with the other two models the
same dependent variable must be used, that is the value of permits; therefore,
the anti-logarithm must be taken from the regression results.
The results of the combined forecasts are shown in Table 4. The standard
for choosing the best model is the error minimization criterion; that is, the
model that has the lowest root mean square error (RMSE). In order to deem a
combination model as a more accurate forecast the RMSE must be lower than
each of individual models. The first was a forecast that combined the results
of the multiple regression with those of the time series decomposition. In this

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37

case, the RMSE has been reduced when compared to the multiple regression
on its own, however, it is not minimized in comparison to the decomposition.
The second combination was the multiple regression and the Box-Jenkins; the
results show that the RMSE was less than both individual models. The third
model, decomposition with Box-Jenkins, had reduced RMSE when compared
to Box-Jenkins but not reduced when compared to the decomposition
technique. All three techniques were combined to see if this would produce
an error minimized forecast. The results show that the RMSE for combined
was lower than both the multiple regression and the Box-Jenkins, however,
the decomposition technique had a lower RMSE than the combined forecast.
When forecasts results of two or more models are combined to make a more
accurate model, it is more reliable if a weight is assigned to each individual
forecast rather than assuming an equal weight. This is because each forecast
method utilizes different pieces of information and thus one may have more
significance when combining the results. As the results above showed that
the multiple regression with Box-Jenkins to be the best combination model, a
further analysis of the results is conducted.

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Smale: Value of Residential Building Permits for Single Family Dwellings in Canada

The left side of Table 5 has the initial results of the regression, showing a
constant term that is insignificant at the 95% confidence level which means
that this coefficient is not statistically different from zero. Therefore, a second
regression is run in which the constant is forced to be equal to zero; the results
are shown on the right side of Table 6. The new forecast model is as follows:
VALUE=f(Box-Jenkins Forecast,Multiple Regression Forecast)
Using the weights that have been determined in this regression, the permit
values can be estimated as:
VALUE=0.74*Box-Jenkins Forecast+0.29*Multiple Regression Forecast
Using this model to forecast the permit value gives the results shown in
Table 6. The forecast shown in this table are only for the 12 quarters of future
forecast and the 12 quarters of in-sample forecast. This data was plotted
against time, to show the cyclical nature of the permit values; see Figure 4.
The in-sample forecast appears well fitted to the actual data. The next twelve
quarters show a consistent wavelike pattern, with peaks in June/July each
year and troughs in March/April each year.

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39

40

Smale: Value of Residential Building Permits for Single Family Dwellings in Canada

Conclusion
The value of building permits for single family dwellings in Canada can be an
important indicator of the state of the economy. The time series decomposition
model demonstrated that the value of permits has a cyclical pattern which
follows the business cycles of the economy. This can be shown to be very
useful information as one can use these cyclical factors to anticipate when the
next fluctuation in the permit values will occur. As the housing market tends
to slump during an economic downturn the number of permits would tend to
fall and thus so would the average value of permits for that period.
In addition, the decomposition shows that these values trend upwards,
which shows that overall the value of single family dwelling permits will
continue increasing over time, likely due to inflation and expansionary
pressures in the economy. In addition, this model also demonstrated that
seasonality exists in this data, specifically that the second and third quarter of
each year has above average values while the first and last quarter of each year
are below average. This makes sense as typically, depending on demographic
location and seasonal temperatures, the number of permits during the summer
months would be higher than the winter months and thus the values would
reflect this pattern.
Considering that the Root Mean Square Error, the Mean Absolute
Percentage Error (average forecast error) and the Adjusted R2 values reflect
that the Time Series Decomposition Model was the most accurate individual
forecast technique. Table 7 shows the actual and forecasted values for 2008
Quarter 2 to 2011 Quarter 1 and the forecast values from 2011 Quarter 2 to
2014 Quarter 1.
These actual and forecasted values were plotted and shown in Figure 5.
The graph is similar to the combined model in that the model quite accurately
fits in-sample, and the pattern continues into the twelve quarters of the future
with peaks and troughs in the July and April, respectively.
The combination of the multiple regression and Box-Jenkins forecasts
produced the most improved forecast of all the combinations that were
used. The multiple regression model made use of the relationships between
the permit values and the exogenous factors that influenced it. To recap, the
mortgage lending rates and unemployment had a negative relationship to
the permit values, while GDP growth, inflation and population had positive
relationship. It was determined that 82.07% of the variation in the values of
permits was explained by the above variables. The Box-Jenkins model made
use of the autoregressive integrated moving average which looked at the
historical patterns in the data to predict what patterns the future values would

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41

42

Smale: Value of Residential Building Permits for Single Family Dwellings in Canada

have, and determined a seasonal pattern existed. It was also concluded that
92.33% of the variation in the permit values was explained by the patterns
existing in this data.
By combining the results of these two very useful sets of data, a more
accurate forecast emerged which had a lower root mean square than the
two models individually. In addition, by implementing this combination, it
was determined that 94.43% of the variation in the permit values could be
explained by the variables and patterns in the model. There are however,
many other techniques and other variables that could be explored to further
improve the accuracy of future forecasts in the value of residential building
permits for single family dwellings in Canada. l

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Appendix

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Smale: Value of Residential Building Permits for Single Family Dwellings in Canada

References
Bank of Canada. (2010). Bank of Canada. Retrieved November 20, 2010, from
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/index.html
Fan, R. Y., Thomas, S., & Wong, J. M. (2011). Predicting construction market growth for
urban metropolis: An econometric analysis. Habitat International , 167-174.
Statistics Canada. (2010). Statistics Canada. Retrieved November 20, 2010, from
http://estat.statcan.gc.ca.ezproxy.tru.ca/cgi-win/cnsmcgi.pgm?ESTATFile=ESTAT/
English/CII_1-eng.htm&Lang=E&RootDir=ESTAT/
Tse, R. Y., Ho, C., & Ganesan, S. (1996). An Econometric Analysis of House Prices in Hong
Kong. Hong Kong: Department of Architecture, University of Hong Kong .
Wilson, J.H., and Keating, B. Business Forecasting with ForecastX. Sixth Edition. (2009)
McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.

Proceedings of the 7th Annual Thompson Rivers University Undergraduate Research and Innovation Conference

45

CO2 Sequestration Using Continuous
Microalgae (Chlamydomonas sp.)
Culture Linked in Series
Cody Ponting
General Biology

Supervisor: Dr. Ron Smith

Abstract
The majority of current research on microalgae bioreactors is done so with the intent of maximizing
algal biomass production, but very little research is done on optimizing CO2 sequestration and
observing the parameters that allow for this optimization. This study uses Chlamydomonas
sp. grown in continuous culture in a triple photo-bioreactor system. The system receives a
continuous supply of 5% CO2 gas mixture, as well as fresh media delivered independently to
each of the three bioreactors. By altering media flow rates and the corresponding growth rates
of algae, CO2 sequestration can be maximized. By adjusting light irradiance experienced by
each bioreactor CO2 sequestration can be further maximized. Culture density in each reactor
was determined through analysis of chlorophyll concentration, this supported algal growth
corresponding to the altered media flow rates. With initial media flow rates carbon was reduced
to 3.81% by the time it exited the third reactor. After media flow rates were adjusted and light
irradiance was optimized CO2 sequestration was reduced from an initial 5.01%to 3.31% upon
exiting the system. The overall purpose of this study is to develop a small-scale model that can
be transitioned to an industrial application in hopes of reducing the high levels of gaseous carbon
dioxide in our atmosphere.

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Ponting: CO2 Sequestration Using Continuous Microalgae (Chlamydomonas sp.) Culture Linked in Series

Introduction
To date the majority of current research involving algal photo-bioreactors
look to optimize algal biomass production, however very little research
has been done in the realm of maximizing C02 sequestration. Considering
the recent trends in global warming and with carbon levels at an all time
high, this is rather alarming (Kossoy, 2010). Landfills and industrial smoke
release points are some of the primary contributors towards these elevated
levels of CO2 and current methods using chemical based filtration ponds to
mitigate this abundance in carbon simply results in more waste byproduct (Le
Quere et al. 2009). Therefore a system must be devised that uses a more ecofriendly alternative in the capture of gaseous carbon dioxide. By developing
a system that is capable of sequestering CO2 emissions by use of modified
algal bioreactors, it would be possible to eliminate current methods that are
often counter productive, by the CO2 released in burning waste byproducts.
Therefore the purpose of this study is twofold: (1) Develop a closed triple
photo-bioreactor system in which an algal culture of Chlamydomonas sp. can
be grown in continuous cultures and (2) vary media flow rates to maximize
carbon sequestration of 5.0% CO2 gas mixture. Light irradiance will also be
varied to further maximize carbon sequestration. The reasoning behind an
in-series growth culture system would be to maximize CO2 sequestration in a
stepwise fashion at the various bioreactors. The overall design of this system
will act as a small scale model that can be enlarged to suite an industrial
application, such as mill smoke stacks and landfill gas effluent release points.

Materials and Methods
i) Bioreactor Set-up and CO2 Monitoring
The bioreactor set-up was an altered form of a previous double reactor model
(Nelson, 2011). In this model, the gas stream for three 250 ml graduated
cylinders, which acted as the site of algal growth and carbon sequestration,
were connected in series. To accommodate growth of the algae, peristaltic
pumps were used exclusively at each bioreactor, supplying fresh media to the
system while also withdrawing media consisting of algal biomass into waste
beakers for future sampling. Continuous cultures were set-up in a manner,
which allowed for growth rates to be controlled and have algae produced in
a constant physiological state. The peristaltic pumps were required to ensure
that pressure within each individual reactor was adequate to facilitate gas
flow to the preceding reactor. As well as maintaining pressure the peristaltic
pump allowed for the optimization of algal growth by adjusting pump

Proceedings of the 7th Annual Thompson Rivers University Undergraduate Research and Innovation Conference

47

rates and consequently carbon sequestration. Light banks each fixed with
fluorescent tubes were situated around the photo-bioreactor system. The lights
remained on for the course of the experiment with the exception of irradiance
adjustments. Further optimization of CO2 sequestration was accomplished
by independently adjusting the light irradiance at each reactor. Irradiance
readings recorded by a LI-COR PhotometerTM were determined and adjusted
for the positioning and amount that yielded the highest CO2 sequestration
and algal biomass. The CO2-air mixture was administered at 2.0 kPa to the
system provided by cylinders, where CO2 was accurately measured at 5.00
% ± 0.01 and balanced with an adjacent supply of nitrogen. Split junctures
located in the gas lines between reactors allowed for the addition of a QuibitTM
systems CO2 analyzer model No. S153, which could accurately record CO2
levels while under full system operations. The bioreactors were maintained
in a closed system to ensure both optimal carbon sequestration and limit
unwanted contamination or growth (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Schematic diagram of triple photo-bioreactor setup containing continuous growth
cultures of Chlamydomonas sp.

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Ponting: CO2 Sequestration Using Continuous Microalgae (Chlamydomonas sp.) Culture Linked in Series

ii) Media Preparation
Preparation of media was done in five separate stocks to ensure that precipitation
did not occur in the autoclaving process. The media was developed to meet
all the growth requirements essential to the Chlamydomonas algal species. The
pH of the media was held constant at pH 5 using phosphate buffering. Five
concentrated stocks containing trace minerals were made (Table 1). They were
then diluted in the final preparations of the media. All stocks were autoclaved
in suitable containers and stored appropriately to inhibit any contaminant
growth. A batch culture of Chlamydomomas sp. was pre-grown in the media,
and added to each of the bioreactors in a homogenous mixture.

Table 1. Component of each media stock to be autoclaved independently.

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During the final preparation of media these five stocks were combined
according to the volumes shown in Table 2 into separate containers to be
diluted and autoclaved, thus further ensuring no bioreactor contamination
(Table 2).

Table 2. Dilution preparation of media stock. (Nelson, 2011)

iii) Measuring Cell Density
Algal cell density was calculated in relation to chlorophyll concentration.
Presumably the higher the chlorophyll concentration would be directly
paralleled by an increased algal cell count. Isolation of the chlorophyll from
the algal cell was first ensured to calculate total concentration. To do so, 1 ml
samples were removed from the collection beakers situated at each reactor and
placed in 1 ml microcentrifuge tubes. These samples were then centrifuged
at 14000 rpm for two minutes. The supernatant was then discarded and the
green algal pellet was re-suspended in 1 ml methanol and left to sit for 15
minutes allowing for chlorophyll extraction. After the allocated extraction
time the solutions were then centrifuged at 14000 rpm for an additional two
minutes. If the pellet still appeared green after the second centrifuge, it was resuspended and left to sit for another 15 minutes. The supernatant, containing
the extracted chlorophyll was placed in new microcentrifuge tubes and all
samples were measured three times for absorbance using spectrophotometer
at 650 and 655 nm, zeroed with methanol. Chlorophyll concentrations were
then determined using the following absorbance formula (Smith, 2010):
μg chlorophyll/ml=25.5(A650)+4(A665)
Determining the concentration values of chlorophyll enabled for an
analysis of how changing media flow rates affected that of algal growth
within the bioreactors. Chlorophyll concentration and cell count was also
used to determine whether the system reached equilibrium before varying
light irradiance and growth rate parameters.

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Ponting: CO2 Sequestration Using Continuous Microalgae (Chlamydomonas sp.) Culture Linked in Series

vi) Statistical Analysis
To determine if parameter variation had significant effects on the differences
illustrated in CO2 sequestration a two-sample t-test with a 95% CI was
conducted using Minitab 16®. Differences were considered significant when
P-value was less than 0.05.

Results and Discussion
In the process of this experiment an in-line continuous culture algal triple
bioreactor system using Chlamydomonas sp. was successfully constructed. By
manipulating a previous double bioreactor system constructed by Darren
Nelson at Thompson Rivers University in 2011, the triple bioreactor system in
this experiment looked to sequester carbon even further (Figure 2).
i) Optimizing CO2 sequestration by adjusting media inflow rates
From a previous study conducted by Nelson (2011), it was demonstrated
that by starting with equal flow rates in each bioreactor, fresh media acts as
a limiting factor in one reactor while the preceding reactor is limited by CO2.
Therefore the initial starting points of media flow rates were adjusted for each
bioreactor accordingly (Table 3).

Table 3. Media inflow rates at each 250 ml reactor for the initial and
optimized (adjusted) flow rate.

Carbon sequestration can be directly liked to the growth of the culture, so
by adjusting the growth rates accordingly in each reactor (Table 3), in theory
we will be maximize the amount of carbon sequestered. This is supported
by not only the results provided by the CO2 % readings but by that of the
chlorophyll concentrations as well (Table 4).

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Table 4. CO2 concentration and chlorophyll concentration (averages)
recorded after each bioreactor, for both the initial and the adjusted
(optimized) media flow rate with a starting CO2 concentration of 5%.
See Table 3 for media flow rates.

The
efficiency
of
carbon
sequestration by the algal bioreactors
was improved with manipulation of the
media inflow rates. Correspondingly
when these media inflow rates were
adjusted, algal culture growth rates
changed as well to accommodate for
the limiting factors provided within the
system parameters. When increased
from 75 ml/day to 100 ml/day, carbon
sequestration improved by a difference
of 0.27% and this was also supported
by an increase in chlorophyll (2.0463
increase to 4.0558 µg chlorophyll / ml).
Although these carbon sequestration
Figure 2. Bioreactor setup with adjusted
values appear minor, a two-sample (optimal) media flow rates, in order to
t-test with 95% confidence interval sequester maximal carbon.
supported the differences to be
significant (P = 0.01, n= 12). Similar results were also seen at bioreactor 2 and
3 when media flow rates were adjusted to the limiting CO2 factor (Table 4).
When bioreactor 2 reduced media flow rate from 252 ml/day to 216 ml/day,
carbon sequestration was reduced by a difference of 0.63% and chlorophyll
concentration respectively increased from 1.6161 to 5.3185 µg chlorophyll / ml.
When bioreactor 3 reduced media flow rates from 290 ml/day to 230 ml/day,
CO2 sequestration followed with a difference of 0.41%. The two-sample t-test
also demonstrated significant differences (P = <0.05) in carbon sequestration
from initial to adjusted media flow rates at both reactor 2 and 3.

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Ponting: CO2 Sequestration Using Continuous Microalgae (Chlamydomonas sp.) Culture Linked in Series

ii) Further optimization of CO2 sequestration by adjusting light irradiance
Although the adjusting of media flow rates demonstrated apparent levels
CO2 sequestration, the triple bioreactor system has yet to yield the desired
results. Therefore by adjusting light irradiance, an increase in photosynthetic
activity would be ensured and ultimately CO2 sequestration, when matched
with optimal media flow rates, would yield even more profound results. By
increasing the amount of photosynthetic active radiation we were able to adjust
the light irradiance experienced at each reactor, the results are summarized in
Table 5.

Table 5. Initial and adjusted light irradiance values and CO2 values at optimal
media flow rates for bioreactors 1, 2 & 3.

As seen in table 5, a slight increase in light irradiance at each bioreactor
also prompts an increase in CO2 sequestration. However when the differences
in CO2 % values for varying light irradiance are compared via two-sample
t-test, the results were shown to be insignificant (P= >5, in all cases). Although
the difference is insignificant, the results were not unexpected. Microalgae,
including Chlamydomonas saturate at a considerably higher irradiance than
used in this experiment (Jacobi et al. 2012, Pillsbury, 1999).
Ultimately the results demonstrated in this experiment coincide with the
objective that is; to construct an in line triple photo-bioreactor system that
houses Chlamydomonas sp. and sequesters carbon to a respectable percent. The
flexibility in small scale system should allow for many other parameters to
be tested, and in theory, the addition of more bioreactors and manipulation
of subsequent media flow rates may make it possible to sequester all of the
CO2 from gas. However before total CO2 sequestration can be experienced
many other factors must be addressed in the future to completely optimize
the system. Most notably the triple photo-bioreactor system did not always
maintain a homogenous mixture and most often we would experience algal
settling on the bottom of the bioreactor. The settling that occurred may have
been responsible for the increased levels of CO2 released by the decomposition
process. Sedimentation on the glassware may also inhibit the transparent

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53

effects of the bioreactor, possibly counteracting the photosynthesis process and
negatively affecting carbon sequestration (Pillsbury, 1999). Possible reasons
pertaining to sedimentation of the algae, is the poor bubbling of gas released
from the porous rock filter. The bubbles released in this process were small
and lacked the ability to keep the bioreactor content at a homogenous mixture.
A study done by Rocha and colleagues(2003) hypothesized that small bubbles
lead to increased cell wall damage in algal species and therefore decrease
growth rate and lead to algal decomposition sites in the bioreactor system.
Although it was previously mentioned that light had little effect on the CO2
sequestered in the system, we must note that the light plants were left on for
the entirety of the experiment and this may have had negative consequences.
Many algal species work best on a diurnal clock, and often experience
chloroplast fatigue or bleaching when over exposed to the photosynthetic
light (Pillsbury, 1999, Janssen, 1999).
Future research must first address the gas bubbling process experienced in
the bioreactor system. The bioreactor must be able to maintain constant gas
flow as well as a consistent bubble size throughout the whole system to avoid
algal sedimentation. Furthermore it would be beneficial to develop a system
that continually monitors the CO2 levels over the duration of the study to gain
more accurate data. To address the issue of possible chloroplast bleaching, it
would be useful to introduce an intermittent light interval system, to increase
the overall efficiency of the bioreactors (Janssen, 1999). Considering this is
a small-scale model, the energy costs to run it are probably counterintuitive
to the overall objective, however transition to an industrial scale model and
the use of natural light on a diurnal system may be advantageous towards
energy costs. Although there are already current methods in place to sequester
carbon released from single pore gas effluent point, this in line series algal
bioreactor system offers a more environmentally friendly solution in doing so,
while providing little byproduct in the process. Any converted byproduct, is
simply biomass of algae and water with trace minerals, and there are countless
applications of algal biomass with regards to fertilizer, biofuels etc. Ultimately
this study has shown that a small scale bioreactor system has the ability to
turn an abundant waste product and convert it into something can be applied
on many aspects. l

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Ponting: CO2 Sequestration Using Continuous Microalgae (Chlamydomonas sp.) Culture Linked in Series

Literature Cited
Jacobi A, Bucharsky E. C., Schell K,G., 2012. The Application of Transparent Glass
Sponges for Improvement of Light Distribution in Photobioreactors. J Bioprocess
Biotechniq. 2:113
Janssen M, Kuijpers TC, Veldhoen B, Ternbach MB, Tramper J, Mur LR, Wijffels RH.
1999. Specific growth rate of Chlamydomonas reinhardtii and Chlorella sorokiniana under
medium duration light dark cycles: 13-87 s. J Biotechnol 70(1-3):323-33.
Kossoy A, Amborsi Philippe. 2010 State and trends of the Carbon Market.
Carbon Finance. pp 1-60
Le Quere C, Raupach M.R., Canadell J.G., Marland G. 2009. Trends in the sources and sinks
or carbon dioxide. Nature Geoscience (2) 831-836.
Smith, R. (2010) Biology 3510 Laboratory Manual. Thompson Rivers University.
Kamloops, BC. p. 21.
Pillsbury RW and Lowe RL. 1999. The response of benthic algae to manipulations of light
in four acidic lakes in northern Michigan. Hydrobiologia 394:69-81.
Rocha JM, Garcia JE, Henriques MF, 2003. Growth aspects of the marine microalga
Nannochloropis gaditana. Biomolecular Engineer. 20: 327-242.

Acknowledgements
Thanks to Dr. Ron Smith for the opportunity to conduct this project. Darren
Nelson for the support during the continuation of his previous study. Finally
Dr. Jon Van Hamme for the research space and useful insight during system
development.

Proceedings of the 7th Annual Thompson Rivers University Undergraduate Research and Innovation Conference

55

Does Inbreeding Depression Occur
in the Sagebrush Buttercup
(Ranunculus glaberrimus)?
Sabina Donnelly
Biology

Supervisor: Dr. Lyn Baldwin
Co-supervisor: Dr. Nancy Flood

Abstract
As habitat and population fragmentation increase in occurrence due to anthropogenic activities,
decreasing health and fitness through inbreeding depression of affected populations becomes an
increasing concern. Many plant populations utilize mixed mating strategies that allow them to
temporarily overcome the hurdles of unfavourable conditions and maintain reproductive output.
The aim of this research was to determine if a difference existed in the germination of selectively
outcross-pollinated, selectively self -pollinated and naturally fertilized seeds of Ranunculus
glaberrimus and whether origin from primary (first emerging) or secondary (later emerging)
flowers played a role. Seeds collected in 2009 and 2010 from out-crossed, self-fertilized and
naturally fertilized R. glaberrimus flowers were grown in germination chambers at controlled
conditions. Germination of seeds was documented in order to determine whether flower type
and/or reproductive mode played a significant role in the fitness of progeny. Results of this study
showed that there was no overall significant difference in the germination rate of seeds despite a
difference in reproductive mode and floral origin.

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Donnelly: Does Inbreeding Depression Occur in the Sagebrush Buttercup (Ranunculus glaberrimus)?

Introduction
Inbreeding depression is the decreased fitness of individuals in a population
due to the mating of closely related individuals (Angeloni et al. 2011; Husband
and Schemske 1996; Anderson et al. 1992; Charlesworth and Charlesworth
1987). A decrease in fitness can be exhibited through negative changes in plant
traits such as germination, biomass and reproduction (Angeloni et al. 2011;
Husband and Schemske 1996). However, the magnitude of adverse impacts on
these traits varies according to population history and species characteristics
such as life history, mating system, and longevity. Inbreeding depression is
caused by the expression of deleterious, recessive alleles that become more
prevalent in inbred populations (Angeloni et al. 2011, Husband and Schemske
1996, Anderson et al. 1992).
In conservation biology, inbreeding depression is a great concern as
endangered species tend to be dispersed among small populations, which
with time, become increasingly related. A meta-analysis done by Angeloni
et al. (2011) confirmed that inbreeding in fragmented plant populations is a
frequent and widespread occurrence. In light of this, inbreeding depression
should be considered a growing threat to population stability as habitat
fragmentation due to anthropogenic activities makes reproduction via outcrossed pollination rarer and more difficult to achieve.
As plants are unable to control the environmental conditions that
surround them, many flowering species have evolved strategies to maximize
their reproductive output despite unfavourable conditions (Eckert et al.
2010, Burd 1994). Such strategies employed by plants may include attuned
flowering phenology and mixed mating systems. Flowering phenology relies
on environmental cues such as temperature and daylight length to trigger the
emergence of flowers at a time that coincides with the arrival of appropriate
pollinators (Tooke and Battey 2010). Furthermore, sequential flowering of
first emerging (primary) and later emerging (secondary) flowers extends this
window of opportunity and provides a buffer against varying and adverse
environmental conditions (Cameron-Inglis et al. 2011; Simcox 2011).
Mixed mating systems employ multiple mating strategies: out-crossing, selffertilization and apomixis. Out-crossing involves the transfer of pollen from
one parent plant onto another parent plant and results in the most genetically
diverse progeny. Self-fertilization occurs when the pollen of bisexual and selfcompatible individuals is able to fertilize their own ovaries. Apomixis results
in asexual production of seeds in a process in which fertilization is not needed
to occur. Since fertilization through outcrossing produces the most genetically
diverse and stable progeny, it has the least chance of producing inbreeding
depression. However, the occurrence of fertilization via outcrossing relies

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on factors such as the distribution and density of individuals as well as the
distribution and behaviour of appropriate pollinators (Eckert et al. 2010). As
human disturbances and climate change have the potential to decouple plantpollinator relationships (Angeloni et al. 2011), out-crossing may become even
more limited for some species. For those plant species that are bisexual and
self-compatible with their own pollen, self-fertilization provides a means to
overcoming such reproductive hurdles (Goodwillie et al. 2005). Nonetheless,
self-fertilization does not provide an unproblematic solution. The progeny
of self-fertilized flowers have been found to be notably weaker than their
out-crossed counterparts due to the increased frequency of recessive and
deleterious alleles (Charlesworth and Charlesworth 1987). Thus, although
self-fertilization may provide a mode of reproduction when out-crossed
pollen is limited, it may also lead to a heritable reduction in fitness of progeny
caused by inbreeding depression.
Previous studies on Ranunculus glaberrimus, the Sagebrush Buttercup,
examined the reproductive fitness of different mating strategies of this species
and found that it could both outcross and self-fertilize (Cameron-Inglis et
al.2011; Simcox 2011). The reproductive fitness (as estimated by the number
of seeds per flower, mean seed mass, total seed mass and flower head mass)
was compared between flowers limited to outcrossing, selfing or natural
(unmanipulated) treatments. This comparison was made for both the primary
and secondary flowers of R. glaberrimus. In these previous studies, the seeds
of each flower were collected and weighed; however, no attempt was made
to determination the germinability of seeds. The goals of this project were to
examine whether: (1) differences in fitness could be observed in germination
rates among out-crossed, self-fertilized seeds, and naturally-fertilized seeds
and (2) if differences among these treatments were significant between seeds
of primary and secondary flowers collected in the 2010 sampling year.

Materials and Methods
Flower Description
Rannunculus glaberrimus is a perennial herb commonly found inhabiting
the dry grasslands, shrublands and open forests of Southern Interior
British Columbia, Canada (Figure 1, E-flora 2012). The bright yellow, oneto four- flowered inflorescences of this species can appear first in March
and can continue blooming into July (E-flora 2012). R. glaberrimus produces
hermaphroditic flowers that are fully self-compatible, allowing for both selffertilization and out-crossing to occur.

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Donnelly: Does Inbreeding Depression Occur in the Sagebrush Buttercup (Ranunculus glaberrimus)?

Figure 1. Map depicting the distribution of R. glaberrimus throughout British

Columbia, Canada (E-flora 2012). Shaded areas show current distribution of
R. glaberrimus North America.

Figure 2. Photograph of R. glaberrimus.

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Seed Selection and Preparation of Germination Trials
Seeds used in this 2011 study were obtained in 2009 and 2010 from sampling
during those growing seasons (Cameron-Inglis et al. 2010; Simcox 2011).
During 2009 and 2010, upon daily visits to the R. glaberrimus population site
(N 50o38’46”, W 120o20’25”), the emergence date of flowers was documented as they
were individually tagged and given identification codes. Fully reflexed flowers were
given treatments that consisted of bagging, emasculation or no manipulation to
produce self-fertilized, out-crossed or natural seeds respectively. During 2011,
seeds collected from flowers during summers 2009 and 2010 were prepared
for three different germination trials using methods adapted from Perry et al.
(2005),Young et al. (1992) and May et al. (2011). Due to size limitations of the
germination chamber, germination experiments had to occur in three different
trials rather than one. Prior to this experiment, seeds were stored in sealed
plastic bags in the dark and at room temperature. Ten seeds per treatment,
from nine treatments varying in year of collection, type of flower (primary
vs. secondary) and reproductive mode (Table 1) were randomly selected and
individually sealed in an envelope. These seeds were cold stratified for 3
weeks in a freezer (below 0oC) to stimulate germination immediately prior
to each of the three germination trials (May et al. 2011). After stratification,
a 10% bleach solution was used to surface sterilize seeds in a 96-well plate
for 10 minutes to minimize fungal contamination as a confounding variable
Perry et al. (2005). Following sterilization, seeds were rinsed with deionised
water and then transferred into 60 mm Petri dishes containing Whatman #41
ashless filter paper and 2 ml deionised water. The edge of each Petri dish
was sealed with parafilm to minimize water loss. Seeds were then placed in
a germination chamber for 3 weeks under a temperature set at 25oC and a
photoperiod of 16 hours with light intensity ranging between 37- 102 µEm2 -1
s . As light intensity was strongest at the center of the germination chamber,
every second day Petri dishes were rotated to ensure that overall, they were
receiving the same amount of light.

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Donnelly: Does Inbreeding Depression Occur in the Sagebrush Buttercup (Ranunculus glaberrimus)?

Table 1. List of nine year/flower type/reproductive mode treatments used in
this study for each of the three germination trials.

Analysis of Seed Germination
After removal from the germination chamber, seeds were examined
underneath a back lit dissecting microscope to determine whether germination
had occurred. If fungal contamination was present, the seed was removed
from further analysis.

Figure 3. Photograph of a radicle emerging from a germinating Sagebrush
Buttercup seed

Results
Analysis of all Treatment Types
Using Minitab (version 16), Chi-squared tests for association were done to
compare the number of germinated seeds from the self-fertilized, out-crossed
and natural treatments within 2009 primary flowers, 2010 primary flowers
and 2010 secondary flowers (Tables 2, 3 and 4). Analysis of germinated
versus ungerminated seeds by treatment type in each trial (Tables 2, 3, and 4)
produced insignificant results (p-value > 0.05) for seeds collected from 2009

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61

primary, 2010 primary and 2010 secondary flowers. These results suggest that
the origin of seeds (flower type, year collected and reproductive mode) did not
play a significant role in the germination rate of seeds during any of the three
germination trials.

Table 2. Comparison of germinated and non-germinated seeds among
self-fertilized (SF), out-crossed (OC) and natural (NAT) treatments of the
first germination trial. The 1˚ symbol designates primary flowers and the 2o
symbol designates secondary flowers.

Table 3. Comparison of germinated and non-germinated seeds among selffertilized (SF), out-crossed (OC) and natural (NAT) treatments of the second
germination trial.

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Donnelly: Does Inbreeding Depression Occur in the Sagebrush Buttercup (Ranunculus glaberrimus)?

Table 4. Comparison of germinated and non-germinated seeds among selffertilized (SF), out-crossed (OC) and natural (NAT) treatments of the third
germination trial.

In order to determine whether separate trials could be grouped together for
subsequent analyses, Chi-squared tests of association were performed to see
if there were significant differences in germination rates among trials (Tables
5, 6, and 7). The results of Tables 5, 6 and 7 reveal that trials could not be
grouped together based on treatment type because trials either significantly
differed from one another (p-value < 0.05), or a reliable test statistic could not
be calculated (n/a).

Table 5. Comparison of germinated and non-germinated self-fertilized (SF),
out-crossed (OC) and natural (NAT) seeds from 2009 primary flowers among
first, second and third trial sets.

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Table 6. Comparison of germinated and non-germinated self-fertilized (SF),
out-crossed (OC) and natural (NAT) seeds from 2010 primary flowers among
first, second and third trial sets.

Table 7. Comparison of germinated and non-germinated self-fertilized (SF),
out-crossed (OC) and natural (NAT) seeds from 2010 secondary flowers
among first, second and third trial sets.

Analysis of Germination in Primary versus Secondary Flowers
To establish whether germination rates varied among the seeds of secondary
and primary flowers collected in 2010, comparisons of treatments were again
done per trial through chi-square tests of association in Minitab (Tables 8, 9
and 10).

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Donnelly: Does Inbreeding Depression Occur in the Sagebrush Buttercup (Ranunculus glaberrimus)?

Table 8. Comparison of germinated and non-germinated self-fertilized
(SF), out-crossed (OC) and natural (NAT) among seeds of 2010 primary and
secondary flowers from trial set one.

Table 9. Comparison of germinated and non-germinated self-fertilized
(SF), out-crossed (OC) and natural (NAT) among seeds of 2010 primary and
secondary flowers from trial set two.

Table 10. Comparison of germinated and non-germinated self-fertilized
(SF), out-crossed (OC) and natural (NAT) among seeds of 2010 primary and
secondary flowers from trial set three.

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Comparisons of secondary versus primary flower germination by treatment
yielded inconclusive results. Although marginally significant and significant
results were obtained (Table 8 and 10), they provided little information as
they were not replicated among other trials. In trials 1 and 3 (Tables 8 and
10, respectively), it is apparent that natural treatments yielded significantly
higher germination rates for secondary versus primary flowers.

Discussion and Conclusions
In this research, seed origin was found not to play a significant role in the
germination rate of seeds. Neither mode of reproduction, type of flower, nor
year of production influenced the rate of germination. Despite germination
being plant attribute that has been shown to be influenced by inbreeding
depression (Angeloni et al. 2011, Husband and Schemske 1996, Anderson et al.
1992, Charlesworth and Charlesworth 1987), there are several considerations
regarding this research which needs to be taken into account.
Individual trials could not be grouped together either due to significant
differences in germination rates within treatment types, or computational
problems stemming from small sample size (Tables 5, 6 and 7). Therefore,
analysis of data was greatly constricted and had to rely upon Chi-squared
tests of association to determine if differences exist between out-crossed and
self-fertilized seeds of individual trials.
The absence of significantly lower germination rates for self-fertilized
seeds suggests that this mode of reproduction does not affect the germination
rate of subsequent offspring. Nonetheless, insignificant results do not imply
that self-fertilization has not led to inbreeding depression in these offspring.
As natural treatments were left unmanipulated, the mode of reproduction
or proportion are unknown; therefore, inferences on inbreeding depression
cannot be made. However, for these trials, it appears that the secondary
flowers given natural treatments produced more vigorous offspring due to
higher germination rates. Similarly, secondary flowers were found to have
significantly higher germination rates when limited to out-crossing in the third
trial (Table 10). However, as this result is present in only one trial, this finding
should be viewed with caution until further work can replicate this result.
The lack of evidence for inbreeding due to self-fertilization in this
experiment does not exclude inbreeding depression in this species. Several
factors not controlled for in the experimental design of this research may have
masked the effects of inbreeding depression in our results. First, inbreeding
depression relies on the characteristics and expression of homozygous,
deleterious alleles. Varying dominance of these alleles and their role in life

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Donnelly: Does Inbreeding Depression Occur in the Sagebrush Buttercup (Ranunculus glaberrimus)?

stages of an organism may make them difficult to detect (Angeloni et al. 2011,
Husband and Schemske 1996, Anderson et al. 1992). For instance, they may
have been too weak to be distinctively expressed, or they may simply not
have acted in the germination stage, which was the stage examined in this
research. Second, substantial accumulation of deleterious alleles may not
occur without continued inbreeding among several or more generations. As
demonstrated by Anderson et al. (1992), the effects of inbreeding depression
become more drastic with subsequent self-fertilization, generation after
generation. As the ability of R. glaberrimus to outcross as well as self-fertilize is
known, there is no reason to believe that this population has been inbreeding
repeatedly (Cameron-Inglis et al.2011; Simcox 2011). Third, varying germination
rates due to the absence and presence of inbreeding among out-crossed and
self-fertilized offspring, respectively, may not be evident in optimal growing
conditions such as those obtained in a germination chamber. As inbreeding
bestows a lower fitness upon offspring, this phenotypic difference may not
be detrimental to survival until a selective pressure is applied (Armbruster
and Reed 2005). Last, Byers and Waller (1999) suggest that populations
which have a history of inbreeding may have purged deleterious alleles. As
homozygotes become increasingly common in such populations, selection
against individuals with lethal and sub-lethal alleles effectively purges these
traits out of the population. However, prior studies (Cameron-Inglis et al.
2011; Simcox 2011) have found that this R. glaberrimus population readily outcrosses, making “allele purging” an unlikely effect.

Suggestions for future work
While the results of this research have provided only limited evidence
that reproductive mode, year of production and type of flower substantially
affects germination, they have revealed potential avenues for future work.
First, inbreeding depression should be examined across various life stages that
extend past germination such as seedling establishment and growth. Second,
employment of stressful versus non-stressful growing regimes may make the
effects of inbreeding depression more apparent. Third, the statistical analyses
of this project were greatly constrained by limitations of small sample size.
By increasing the number of samples per trial, this problem may be avoided.
Last, investigating the proportions at which outcrossed and self-pollination
occur in unmanipulated conditions could shed light on the reproductive
strategies of R. glaberrimus. l

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67

References
Anderson N. O., P. D. Ascher and R. R Widmer. 1992. Inbreeding depression in garden and
glasshouse chrysanthemums: germination and survivorship. Euphytica. 62: 155-169.
Angeloni, F., N. J. Ouborg, and R. Leima. 2011. Meta-analysis on the association of
population size and life history with inbreeding depression in plants. Biological
Conservation. 144: 35-43.
Armbruster, P., and D.H. Reed. 2005. Inbreeding depression in benign and stressful
environments. Heredity 95:235-242
Burd, M. 1994. Bateman’s principle and plant reproduction: the role of pollen limitation in
fruit and seed set. The Botanical Review 60: 83-139.
Byers, D. and Waller, D.M. 1999. Do plant populations purge their genetic load? Effects
of population size and mating history on inbreeding depression. Annual Review of
Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics. 30:479-513.
Charlesworth, D., and B. Charlesworth. 1987. Inbreeding depression and its evolutionary
consequences. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 18: 237.
Cameron-Inglis, H., M. Jones, A. Simcox, A. Percell and L. Baldwin. 2011. Timing it
right: reproductive flexibility in an early-flowering plant (Ranunculus glaberrimus).
Unpublished manuscript.
Eckert, C., Kalisz, S., Geber, M., Sargent, R., Elle, E., Cheptou, P.-O., Goodwillie, C.,
Johnston, M., Kelly, J., Moeller, D., Porcher, E., Ree, R., Vallejo-Marin, M., and Winn, A.
2010. Plant mating systems in a changing world. Trends in Ecology and Evolution
25(1): 35-43.
E-Flora. 2012. http://www.geog.ubc.ca/biodiversity/eflora/. [accessed April 2, 2012].
Goodwillie C., S. Kalisz and C. G. Eckert. 2005. The evolutionary enigma of mixed mating
systems in plants: occurrence, theoretical explanations, and empirical evidence. Annual
Review of Ecology, Evolution and Systematics. 36: 47-79.
Husband B. C., and D. W. Schemske. 1996. Evolution of the magnitude and timing of
inbreeding depression in plants. Evolution. 50: 54-70.
May, L., and Baldwin, L. 2011. Linking field based studies with greenhouse experiments:
the impact of Centaurea stoebe (=C. maculosa) in British Columbia grasslands.
Biological Invasions. 13: 919-931.
Perry, L.G., C. Johnson, E.R. Alford, J.M. Vivanco and M. Paschke. 2005. Screening of
grassland plants for restoration after spotted knapweed invasion. Restoration Ecology.
13: 725-735.
Simcox A. 2011. Secondary flower contribution to the evolutionary fitness of the sagebrush
buttercup (Ranunculus glaberrimus). Unpublished manuscript.
Young, J. A., E. Martens and N. E. West. 1992. Germination of Bur Buttercup Seeds. Journal
of Range Management. 45: 358-362.
Tooke, F. And N. F. Battey. 2010. Temperate flowering phenology. Journal of Experimental
Botany. 11: 2853-2862.

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Donnelly: Does Inbreeding Depression Occur in the Sagebrush Buttercup (Ranunculus glaberrimus)?

Analysis of Optical Response and
Morphological Dimorphisms of
Gender Morphs in an Androdioecious
Population of Ranunculus
glabberimus ssp. ellipticus
Kristin Tilbury
Chemical Biology and Physical Sciences

Supervisor: Dr. Lyn Baldwin

Abstract
A population of androdioecious Ranunculus glaberrimus ssp. ellipticus was analyzed for
gender morph abundance, sexual structure abundance, and dimorphism in reflective spectra.
The abundance of sexual morphs was calculated to be 0.94 males to 32.7 hermaphrodites
(Nplot= 54 and Nflower= 1819). Hermaphroditic morphs had both carpels (µ=115.8±38.6) and
stamens (µ=23.3±7.92), where male morphs had only stamens (µ=41.8±13.06). Male morphs
also contained a structure embedded within the stamens at their base that was not seen in the
hermaphroditic morph and possessed no apparent reproductive function. Analysis of reflectance
spectra gave no significant difference between mean brightness, hue, and saturation values for
the hermaphroditic and male morphs. The values for brightness were, 0.205 (Hermaphrodite)
and 0.198(Male); values for hue were 0.714(Hermaphrodite) and 0.696(Male); and values for
saturation were 0.454 (Hermaphrodite) and 0.455(Male).

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Introduction
Ranunculus glaberrimus ssp. ellipticus, commonly known as sagebrush
buttercup, is a gender dimorphic perennial plant that is native to BC’s
interior western grasslands. Surveys conducted by the author in the spring
of 2010, 2011, and 2012 revealed that populations of this subspecies within
Lac Du Bois Provincial Park were androdioecious – containing male-only
and hermaphroditic flower morphs (unpublished data). Plant-pollinator
interactions are an integral part in the long-term perpetuation of many species
of flowering plants (Barrett 2010, Horandl 2008, Ashman 2005, Dafni 1992).
For plants maintaining androdioecy, visual and olfactory cues contributing to
plant-pollinator interactions become increasingly important (Ashman 2005).
Androdioecy is an uncommon breeding system in angiosperms (Barret 2010,
Majetic 2009, Ashman 2005) and the sagebrush buttercup breeding system
has only been previously reported as gynodioecious with female-only and
hermaphroditic flowers (Lloyd 1975, Cameron-Inglis 2011, Simcox 2010).
Androdioecy is typically driven by negative frequency-dependent selection
(Barret 2001), where the relative fitness of the rarer gender must be higher than
that of the more common gender. In a buttercup whose pollination system
depends on generalist pollinators (Simcox 2010), the fitness of the male morph
must be maintained by an increase in attractive traits greater than or equal to
200% higher than the hermaphroditic morph; such as the abundance or quality
of visual or olfactory cues (Ashman 2005). If the pollination system, including
attractive traits, is not the sole maintaining factor for the male-morph within
an androdioecious population other traits such as greater pollen fecundity of
males or other genetic or inherited traits must be present (Lloyd, 1975).
Here, we analyze visual cues including abundance of reproductive parts,
and petal reflectance, and compare these analyses to the frequency of male
occurrence within the Lac du Bois population. This was done in order to
determine if male flowers rely on unique visual cues to promote pollinator
visits, and in an attempt to elucidate a correlation between abundance of sexual
morphs and dimorphism of petal reflectance in this rarely observed system.

Materials and Methods
Species information
Ranunculus glaberrimus ssp. ellipticus have one to four flowered cymes,
prostrate stems of moderate height (5-15cm), and lance shaped leaves
(figure 1)(Parish 1996, Brayshaw 1989). Flowers are radially symmetric with
an average of five petals (unpublished data) that are glossy, hairless, and

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Tilbury: Analysis of Optical Response and Morphological Dimorphisms of Gender Morphs

distinctly yellow. Flowers also have five sepals and a nectary at the base of the
petals. Petals are typically composed of three layers of mesophyll parenchyma
cells enclosed by a planar non-papillate epidermal surface, an oil-containing
adaxial epidermis, and a starch grain rich adaxial mesophyll layer (Vegnioloni
2011). The epidermal surface is the layer containing the pigment (Vegnioloni
2011). Hermaphroditic morphs have a floral center with stamens (mean
stamen number ~ 23) surrounding a concentric whorl of carpels (mean carpel
number ~ 115) (figure 1). Male morphs have a concentric whorl of stamens
(mean number of stamens ~ 41) surrounding a small elongate green mass
not previously reported in literature (figure 1). Ranunculus glaberrimus ssp.
ellipticus is typically found on dry hillsides (Klinkenberg 2008) and is one of
the earliest flowering plants of the Southern Interior (Parish 1996). It is local to
dry Ponderosa/Douglas-fir forests, as well as meadows and rock, grass, and
sage slopes (Parish 1996) (figure 1-II).

Figure 1. Picture of the two gender morphs of Ranunculus glaberrimus ssp. ellipticus
with male morph (IA.) and Hermaphrotic morph (IB.) Figure 1-II shows population with
surrounding species

Lac Du Bois site description
The research site is located within Lac Du Bois Provincial Park at the 13km
mark on the Lac Du Bois forest service road on a southwest-facing slope 300
m from the road (figure 2). Surrounding vegetation includes grasses (ex.
Agropyron spicatum), sage (ex. Artemisia tridentate, an established Aspen stand
downslope, and Douglas fir within 200m upslope (figure 1-II).
Kamloops (which includes Lac du Bois Provincial Park) has a dry arid
climate with low precipitation (Lloyd 1990), the study area is located within
the Fraser Plateaux and is described as having irregular topography of small
benches and gullies (Van Ryswyk 1963).

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Figure 2. Location of research site, 13km mark on Lac du Bois Forest Service Road indicated
by star (50˚ 47.742 x 120˚ 26.566). Gender morph information was collected from 54 random
2mx1m plots, flowers were collected, bagged individually and frozen for later analysis (Adapted
from a Google Earth overlay on a map from Ministry of Forests, 2012)

Although this area is open to the public it did not seem to have been visited
as the trails are lower in the park and typically feed into the many lakes.
However, there is free-range grazing within the park and there was some fecal
evidence that cattle had grazed the area.
Fifty-four 2mx1m rectangular plots were sampled in the spring of 2011.
Plot placement was randomized by throwing the PVC pipe plot over my
shoulders after turning 90˚ to the right starting at coordinates 50˚ 47.742 x 120˚
26.566. The total number of each flower morph was recorded for each plot,
as well as the coordinates of each plot. Samples were collected from plots,
sealed separately in Ziploc bags with quadrat and morph identifications on
each bag (ex. Q21H would be a hermaphroditic flower from the 21st quadrat),
and frozen.
Flower morphological analysis
Frozen samples were thawed after which stamens, carpels, and petals
were counted for each collected flower. Analysis was done with a dissecting
scope, carpels and stamens were counted twice to ensure accurate analysis.
Petals were mounted onto a flashcard by using a small drop of deionized
H2O; this flattened the petals and allowed the petal to form a good optically

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Tilbury: Analysis of Optical Response and Morphological Dimorphisms of Gender Morphs

flat surface for spectral analysis. To avoid dehydration the mounted petals
were carefully placed into a Ziploc bag, laid on a flat tray and refrozen for
later spectroscopic characterization. Pollen counts were attempted using
methodology from Cameron-Inglis (2011); however, above 95% of anthers had
dehisced rendering the analysis inadequate. The counts were done by cutting
the anthers along the line of dehiscence with a scalpel while the anther was
submersed in a drop of deionized water. The pollen was extracted using a
small prong and the pollen/water solution was washed into a centrifuge tube.
3 drops Ethylene blue and one drop detergent were added to the tube and the
mixture was vortexed. A drop of the final vortexed mixture was then added
to a haemocytometer and pollen was manually counted under a microscope.
Spectral characterization
The brightness, saturation, and hue of the collected Ranunculus glaberrimus
ssp. ellipticus petals were quantified using methods similar to Vignolini and
coworkers (2011), macroscopic scale reflectance spectra of normal incidence
were obtained with an Ocean Optics Standard Reflection/Backscattering
Probe connected to a light source and the Ocean Optics JAZ spectrometer.
Reflectance spectra were normalized using the provided Ocean Optics White
Standard, and a Dark Standard made from a black construction paper tube.
The dark standard was set with the lamp turned off. The reflectance spectra
wavelength range was set from 300-700nm by setting the range on the halogen
lamp. Standards were re-set after the completion of one petal and before the
analysis of the next petal. Three reflectance spectra were obtained for each
petal, and three petals were analyzed at random from each collected flower.
Petals were randomized by numbering the petals and drawing numbers out
of a hat.
Statistical analysis

Statistical analysis was performed using R version 2.14 and further
analysis was done with Minitab, using a standard t-test.
Results
Population dynamics
The fifty four quadrats that were sampled had a mean number of 0.94 males
and 32.74 hermaphrodites per plot. There were 1768 total hermaphroditic
flowers counted within these quadrats and 51 male-only specimens.

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Flower morphology
Ranunculus glaberrimus ssp. ellipticus flowers were identified successfully as
having two discrete sexual morphs. The hermaphroditic morph had stamens
(µ=23.3±7.92) surrounding a concentric whorl of carpels (µ=115.8±38.6) (Table
1: figure 1 Right). Stamens were surrounded by petals (µ=5.80±1.06) and
sepals. It should be noted that freezing caused too much damage to obtain
mean sepal number data (Table 1).
Table 1. Morphological traits for hermaphroditic and male buttercup morphs collected from Lac
du Bois grassland population of Ranunculus glaberrimus ssp. ellipticus, collected and frozen
April 2011, thawed and analyzed February 2012 (N=23)

= P < 0.001 – showing a statistically significant difference between of Hermaphrodites and Male-Only
morphs, and a statistically significant difference between in Hermaphrodites and Male-only morphs
**

Figure 3. Pictures of the Ranunculus glaberrimus ssp. ellipticus male-only morph (A.) Live flower
from Lac du Bois population (B.) Male-only morph saturated with dH2O after being thawed,
sepals are pulled back and unknown non-reproductive structure is brought forward with forceps
notice conical extension from center of structure

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Tilbury: Analysis of Optical Response and Morphological Dimorphisms of Gender Morphs

The middle of the structure had an elongate conical portion that extended
past the fused portion of structure described above (figure 3B), this elongate
structure did not pull apart as the outer portions did and appeared to be a solid
shoot of which function is unknown. Male-only morphs also had a mean petal
number similar to the hermaphroditic morph (µ=5.30±1.54) and had sepals.
Again, freezing caused too much damage to obtain mean sepal number data.
Reflectance signatures
As seen in figure 3(A, B) the petals have a distinctive yellow color, and
reflectance is clearly visible in figure 3B. As such, the reflectance spectra
for both morphs were quantified in an attempt to elucidate a dimorphism
in reflectance between the two sexual morphs. Three reflective spectra were
obtained and averaged to generate a mean value of brightness, saturation,
and hue for each petal, these means were then used to calculate mean values
for each flower, and averaged again to obtain an overall mean for brightness,
saturation, and hue values for the hermaphroditic and male-only morphs
(table 2).
Table 2. Reflective spectrometry data for hermaphroditic and male buttercup morphs collected
from Lac du Bois grassland population of Ranunculus glaberrimus ssp. ellipticus, collected and
frozen April 2011, thawed and analyzed February 2012 (N=23) reflective data for each spectra,
each petal, and each flower can be found in appendix

A reflective low was seen between 400-500nm and a reflective dip was seen
in the 650-700nm wavelength band in all spectral plots (figure 4: A, B). The
wavelength range used was 300-700nm.

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Figure 4. Spectral plots of percent reflectance versus wavelength for hermaphroditic (B.) and
male (a.) morphs. Each graph contains nine lines which represent the three analyses per petal,
and three petals analyzed per flower (RAGL Numbers) at normal incidence.

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Tilbury: Analysis of Optical Response and Morphological Dimorphisms of Gender Morphs

Discussion
The population dynamics described by the results support the hypothesis that
there is a dimorphism in gender morph occurrence within the Lac du Bois
Ranunculus glaberrimus ssp. Ellipticus population with the hermaphroditic
morph being 3482% more abundant than the male-only morph. The
flower morphological data showed that the mean number of stamens was
significantly higher in the male-only morph than the female morph and that
the male-only morph did not contain carpels, instead it had a small fused
structure embedded at the base of the stamen mass.
Analysis of the spectral plots allowed for the determination of absorption
and therefore the presence of characteristic reflective signatures of particular
compounds. The reflective low seen within the 400-500nm wavelength band
in the spectral plots is due to the presence and absorption of carotenoid
pigments (Vignolini 2011), the reflective dip seen in the 650-700nm wavelength
band is due to the presence and absorption of chlorophylls (Karp 2009). The
wavelength range was set to 300-700nm; In future analysis the region between
250-300nm would be included in the set range since the UV region spans 250400nm. However, judging from the reflective spectra between 300-400nm for
both morphs, there is no UV signature seen, unless of course a peak between
250-300nm was present and not visualized by the chosen range. Again, this
may change with the analysis of fresh and not frozen samples.
This research showed that there was no significant difference in optical
response between the frozen petals of the two sexual morphs. However, if this
reflective spectrometry research was to be done with live samples, using the
methods used by this study, a different result may be obtained. An analysis
of current research did not identify if freezing specifically effected analysis
by reflective spectrometry of the Ranunculus petal, Vignolini and co-workers
were the only published researchers who analyzed the Ranunculus petals by
reflective spectrometry and there samples had been cut and the stalks put into
water until an analysis was done within a few hours of collection. However,
there were several studies of the damaging effects of freezing to live plant
tissues but not specifically to petal tissues of angiosperms (Gregory 2001,
Paynado 1979). This damage could be quantified if the results of this research
were compared to the results of research done with fresh/live samples.
Additional research with this population could results in the identification
of the visual, olfactory, or combination of visual-olfactory cues that maintain

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77

this population. An analysis of the epidermal layers of this species of
Ranunculus by scanning electron microscope could be done using methods
used by Vignolini and co-workers (2011). From that analysis, reflective
spectra can be obtained from each of the epidermal layers and also compared
between morph for dimorphism in both optical response and dermal layer
abundance and thickness. A correlation could be made between the thickness
of the epidermal layer and the amount of pigment within the petal, since it
is this layer that is said to house the petal pigmentation. From this proposed
research, a dimorphism between gender morphs could be quantified in
conjunction to an analysis of pollination syndromes for petal dermal layers,
thickness of epidermal layer, pigment abundance, and the optical response of
similar dermal layers.
In order to try and determine if olfactory cues are the source of the
dimorphism further analysis could be done on volatile emission. This could
be done using GC-MS dynamic and static headspace analysis methods
developed and presented by the author of this study to the Thompson Rivers
University CUEF research council from methods used in Ashman et al (2005).
From this volatile analysis, a potential dimorphism in overall volatile profiles
emitted from both of the gender morphs could be quantified. By comparing
this data (from live samples) to data obtained from spectral analysis proposed
above, and further comparing this to the abundance data obtained in this
study, a good grasp on visual and olfactory cue dimorphism could be made.
Further research could also elucidate a correlation between the gender
dimorphism and specific inherited or genetic trait or traits. This could be
done using TRU’s IonTorrent sequencer on seeds. This type of analysis can
be used to determine parental origins and ultimately lead to an analysis of
whether the production of males is a result of the genetics or a genetic defect
of the hermaphrodites by sequencing the genomic DNA housed within the
seed. Additional work could be done to determine how many flowers were
produced per plant, including both primary and secondary flowers, and
whether one morph was being produced as a primary and one as a secondary
or if there were no correlations here.
In conclusion, this study was able to derive a dimorphism in gender morph
occurrence within the population of Lac du Bois Ranunculus glaberrimus ssp.
ellipticus, this dimorphism was a staggering 32:1 in favor of the hermaphroditic
morph. Although the reflective analysis was unable to derive a dimorphism,
I am confident work done on live samples may have different results, as well
as future work on olfactory cues and pollination syndromes held by this

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Tilbury: Analysis of Optical Response and Morphological Dimorphisms of Gender Morphs

population. This work has been incredibly interesting since the sexual system
is so rare, and further work would be incredibly rewarding, thank you very
much for the opportunity.

Acknowledgments
Many thanks to my supervisor Dr. Lyn Baldwin, and co-supervisors,
Dr. Matthew Reudink and Dr. Bruno Cinel, for guidance, suggestions and
motivation. Also thank you to the anonymous reviewers whose comments on
the original manuscript were greatly appreciated. l

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79

Literature Cited
Barret, C. 2010. The evolution of plant sexual diversity. Nature Review Genetics 3:275-284.
Brayshaw, T. 1989. Ranunculus glaberrimus Hooker. Pages 120-122 in Buttercups,
waterlilies, and their relatives in British Columbia, 1st edition. Royal British Columbia
Museum, Victoria, BC.
Cameron-Inglis. 2011. Honours Report, Thompson Rivers University.
Dafni, A. 1992. Pollination ecology: a practical approach. IRL Press at Oxford University
Press, Oxford [England] ;New York.
Gregory, C., A. Knapp. 2011. Leaf optical properties in higher plants: linking spectral
characteristics to stress and chlorophyll concentration. American Journal of Botany.
88(4): 677-684.
Horandl, E. 2008. Evolutionary implications of self-compatibility and reproductive
fitness in the apomictic Ranunculus auricomus polyploid complex (Ranunculaceae).
International Journal of Plant Sciences 169:1219-1228.
Karp, G. 2005. Cell and Molecular Biology: Concepts and Experiments. Book.
(Figure 6.8, pg 213)
Kearns, C., D. Inouye. 1993. Techniques for pollination biologists. University Press of
Colorado, Niwot Colo.
Klinkenberg, B. 2008. E-Flora BC Vascular Plant Atlas Page. Retrieved January 16,
2011, from http://linnet.geog.ubc.ca/Atlas/Atlas.aspx?sciname=Ranunculus%20
glaberrimus%20var.%20ellipticus&redblue=Both&lifeform=7
Majetic, C.J., R. Raguso, T-L. Ashman. 2009. The sweet smell of success: Floral scent affects
pollinator attraction and seed fitness in Hesperis matronalis (Brassicaceae). Functional
Ecology. 3: 480-487.
Ashman, T-L., D.H. Cole, M. Bradburn, R.A. Raguso. 2005. Scent of a male: the role of floral
volatiles in pollination of gender dimorphic plant. Ecology 86: 2099-2105.
Lloyd, D.G., and British Columbia. 1990. A Guide to site identification and interpretation
for the Kamloops Forest Region. Ministry of Forests, Victoria B.C.
Lloyd, D.G. 1975. The maintenance of gynodioecy and androdioecy in angiosperms.
Genetica 45:325-339.
Parish, R., R. Coupe, D. Lloyd. 1996. Plants of Southern interior British Columbia. Lone
Pine Publishing. 463 p.
Paynado, A., H.W. Gausman, D.E. Escobar, R.R. Rodriguez, M.V. Garza. 1979. Evidence of
cell membrane injury detected by reflectance measurements. Cryobiology 16(1): 63-68.
Van Ryswyk, A.L. 1965. Growth, productivity and chemical composition of a sub-alpine
meadow in interior British Columbia. Journal of Range Management. 16: 235-240.
Simcox, A. 2010. Unpublished Data.
Vignolini, S., M. Thomas, et al. 2011. Directional scattering from the glossy flower of
Ranunculus: how the buttercup lights up your chin. Journal of the Royal Society
Interface. 1-7.

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Canadian Afghanistan War Artist:
Canadian Forces Artists Program
(CFAP)
Natasha Costello
Sociology
Literary and Art History

Supervisor: Lloyd Bennett

Abstract
Canada has had a long history of having its artist record the wars it Dominion was involved in.
Lord Beaverbrook enormous collection from the First World War of the Canadian government
has shown a particular interest to record the efforts of its soldiers. This continues today with
the efforts of the Canadian Forces Artist Program (CFAP), which has artist documenting the
war. One of the most inspirational artist is Karen Bailey who recorded in acrylic work that of
Canadians behind the line. As Bailey travelled to Kandahar to interact with the subjects of her
work and liked to focus on the people behind the lines, so too did I seek the core of my research, the
mind behind the work that inspires and awakens so many. In her book Triage, Bailey discusses
her first exposure to wounded soldiers, civilians, and to her shock children. Bailey created a story
that needed to be told.

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Introduction
Canada was the first country in establishing a war art program with the
creation of the Canadian War Memorial Fund in 1916, which was established
by Lord Beaverbrook (Max Aitken) and Rothermere under the direction of the
Canadian War Records office of the Canadian Army during WWI.1 This fund
commissioned, created and exhibited over 800 works, which were shown in
exhibits after the war had ended.2 With the end of the WWI the fund had
ended and it wasn’t till WWII that once again there was a need to document
the war, which is when the Canadian War Records Program started. This
program was similar to that of the Canadian War Memorial Fund, but the
only differences were that Canadian artist serving were employed and that
the works of art were exhibited during the war, which allowed civilians to
see what was happening during the war, but once again as the war ended,
Canada was once again had to official war art program.
From 1968-1995, the Canadian Armed Forces Artist Program (CAFAP) was
built on the same principles of the two other programs. With keeping with the
same aims as the previous two programs, this program allowed for civilian
artist to apply for this program, and work alongside Canadian soldiers on both
domestic and oversea operations. This program was cancelled in 1995 due to
the lack of funds. On June, 6, 2011, announced the creation of the Canadian
Force’s Artist Program (CFAP).3 This new program allowed Canadian artist
the opportunity to record Canada’s soldiers around the word, which would
“usher in a new era of Canadian military art.”4
Karen Bailey was one of a few artists that applied to enter the Canadian
Force’s Artist Program. She focused on painting under-recognized members
of society in Afghanistan at the Triage Hospital, based at the Kandahar Air
Field (KAF). The extent of study that resulted from my method of interaction
with the artist through email allowed for me to get firsthand accounts of
Bailey’s extraordinary experience with war and her techniques of expression,
information which is difficult to find in articles and books. As I began e-mailing
Bailey I started to build a relationship with her, which allowed for depth in my
representation of her work.
Bailey is a graduate of the Reigate School of Art and Design in England.
Her work prior to becoming an artist of the CFAP to 2007 included courtroom
drawings for Global Television, book illustrations for Appletree Press, of
the UK, and some other small projects. Bailey has received the prestigious
Elizabeth Greenshield Fountain Grant twice for her drawings and paintings.
Her work has been exhibited in Britain, Ireland, the United States of America,
and Canada. She often portrays people and through her work she seeks to
represent beauty, honesty, and humanity. As “a painter, [she] has focused on

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Costello: Canadian Afghanistan War Artist: Canadian Forces Artists Program

people who work behind the scenes and generally go unnoticed.”5
After being accepted into the CFAP, Bailey had to fill out a ten page
obligatory insurance form, prior to being allowed to go to Kandahar. She
was motivated by Karole Marois who is also a military artist that applied
for entrance into the CFAP.6 She had to document every ailment that she has
incurred, and every doctor that she has visited in the last ten years. With
having multiple sclerosis (MS), she’s had more paperwork to fill out than any
other applicant. Along with having MS, she also has motion sickness and had
to contact The Department of National Defence (DND) and talk to her contact
about her condition in order to be approved to go.
After the tedious process she had to endure to prepare for Afghanistan,
she found out that she was to do her study at the Canadian Forces Medical
Services (CFMS) with the medical personnel at Role 3 Medical Unit, which is
a Triage hospital at Kandahar Air Field (KAF), twenty-four kilometres outside
Kandahar. The location that Bailey was situated at no longer exists. Bailey left
for her trip to Kandahar on Friday June 22, 2007, which was the beginning
of the short period of time she had to capture what happened at the Role 3
Hospital.7 She flew from Trenton, Ontario to Kandahar, Afghanistan with the
Canadian Forces, flying through Brize Norton in England then to Budapest
and Dubai. During the flight out Bailey recalls:
When the troops were ordered to prepare their weapons, one soldier
turned to ask me: ‘Where’s your weapon?’ I pulled a pencil from
my pocket and, holding it high, declared: ‘The pen is mightier than
the sword.’ He responded with a blank stare, then turned to ready
his weapon.8
I found this particular quote very intriguing. The pen, to Bailey, is more
powerful than anything else. With a pen, she can create anything and with
a sword, one can only kill. To keep herself distracted on the flight, Bailey
sketched the soldiers dozing off. She ended up arriving on Monday June, 25,
2007, a day early, due to miscommunication and was given a lift by a passenger
to the administration office.
Bailey documented what was happening at the Canadian Forces Medical
Service (CFMS) at the Role 3 Military Medical Unit in Kandahar by sketching
and photographing what she saw there, as well as keeping a diary of her
experience. Bailey “captures the small gestures, the brief glance and the
unexpected detail in the ordinary scene to create remarkably intimate views of
her exposure to Canadian military experience in Afghanistan.”9 When Bailey
arrived she went straight to sketching patients at the medical unit. Some of
Bailey’s work reflects more than people. For example, everyday, one of the
hospital staff was assigned to pick up coffee and doughnuts at Tim Hortons.

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The Tim Hortons provided a great
source of comfort and a small
reminder of home to the nurses
and doctors that were assigned
to the Unit. Bailey documented
this experience by painting “Tim
Hortons I”, “Tim Hortons II” and
“Lineup at Tim Hortons”.
Everyone thinks that her
“Self-Portrait on Hercules 1”
painting is a portrait of a soldier
from Kandahar. Very few at first
realize that it is actually a self
portrait of Bailey. She felt it was
important that she be represented
in a military situation, “[she]
painted the workers and the artist
is a worker too.”10 She explained
that self portraitures have been a
visual diary for her throughout
the years, which can be seen in
other projects that she has done.
“Self-Portrait on Hercules 1” was
chosen as one of the pieces to be
exhibited at “A Brush with War
- Military Art from 1946. “SelfPortrait on Hercules 1” appeared
on invitations, posters, catalogue
covers and the entrance display.11
Bailey stated that she was very
happy that her piece was selected
for this use.
What Bailey didn’t talk about
for a period following her brush
with war is how nervous and
jetlagged she was at the time, nor
did she mention how intimidated
she felt at first, around the many
men suffering head injuries, and
how she was drawn towards a

84

Karen Bailey, Sketch of Maztlifa, 2007, Kandahar

Karen Bailey, 2008-2009, Kandahar

Costello: Canadian Afghanistan War Artist: Canadian Forces Artists Program

girl in a tiny wheelchair with a leg injury, who was her first subject. Maztlifa
the injured eight-year-old girl ,who was the first patient that Bailey sketched.
She was injured as a result of a Taliban attack on her family that ended up
with her father being killed and her body being covered in wounds. “While
I sketched she gazed at me intently from her tiny wheelchair, legs encased in
dressing.”12 Bailey says that “a girl in a tiny wheelchair with a leg injury was
less intimidating to sketch than an adult male with severe head injuries.”13
Maztlifa was the only female patient during the time Bailey was there. Bailey
thinks that she “provided [Maztlifa] with a temporary distraction from the
tedium of hospital life.”14
Most typically Bailey has been painting with acrylic and using a limited,
“high-key”, palette, consisting of alizarin crimson, ultramarine blue, and
cadmium over a burnt sienna base. For her military work, she employed a
limited, “low-key”, palette with napthol red light, paynes grey and yellow
ochre over the burnt sienna base. There is something more sombre about this
grouping of colours that is in it keeping with the colours of camouflage. Bailey
favoured using a very limited palette, which consisted of very limited colours
of paint, occasionally alone accompanied by the occasional spot of cadmium
red or naples yellow would be used. “A limited palette keeps unity in my
work and with three colours one can create a complete spectrum.”15
The photographs and sketches that Bailey did while she was at the Role 3
Military Medical Unit later became studies for paintings after she returned to
Canada. As she began to work on these paintings, she ended up changing the
layout of the original sketches. Bailey’s painting “Blast Victim” is one of the
paintings that went through changes. Originally Bailey painted a male nurse
in the background, but in the final piece he is removed it and focuses on the Lt.
(N) Tobi Dwyer who was the nurse that was cleaning the tracheotomy of the
“Blast Victim” patient.16 In 2011 “Blast Victim” was included in the War and
Medicine Exhibition at the Canadian War Museum.17
Bailey is one of a select few that have been given the opportunity to
become part of the Canadian Forces Artist Program (CFAP) to document in
writing, photography or sketching. Bailey captured individuals on the back
line, which is seen in her book Triage work, which took Bailey two years to
create. Given Bailey’s experiences in Kandahar she has a lot to offer about
living on the edge of conflict. What draws people to her is the medium she
chose to show it in, and the eyes she saw it through. She wasn’t seeking
the battle, she sought the efforts of people to live, heal and rebuild. “Triage
presents one week in the Role 3 Hospital at Kandahar Air Field, a week filled
with commitment and compassion.”18 l

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Endnotes
1

The Canadian Encyclopedia, War Artist, 2013

2

National Defence and the Canadian Forces, CFAP Historical Background, 2013

3

National Defence and the Canadian Forces, CFAP Historical Background, 2013

4

National Defence and the Canadian Forces, CFAP Historical Background, 2013

5

Karen Bailey, Triage, Ontario: Red Setter Publishing, 13, 2010

6

Karen Bailey, 13

7

Karen Bailey, 13

8

Karen Bailey, 11

5

Email

6

Email

7

Karen Bailey, 19

8

Email

9

Email

10

Email

11

Dictionary

12

Email

13

Email

18

Karen Bailey, Triage, Ontario: Red Setter Publishing, 24, 2010

References
Canadian Encyclopedia, War Artist, http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.com/articles/
war-artists, 2013
Karen Bailey, Triage, Ontario: Red Setter Publishing, 2010
Karen Bailey, Karen Bailey, http://www.karenbailey.ca/, 2013
National Defence and the Canadian Forces, CFAP Historical Background, http://www.
cmp-cpm.forces.gc.ca/dhh-dhp/gal/ap-pa/cfap-pafc-eng.asp, 2013
National Defence and the Canadian Forces, CFAP Selected Artists 2005-2007, http://www.
cmp-cpm.forces.gc.ca/dhh-dhp/gal/ap-pa/sa-as-0507/index-eng.asp , 2013
Interview with Karen Bailey¸ Canadian Forces Artist Program, E-mails, Oct 2, 2010 April 3, 2012
Oxford Paperback Dictionary and Thesaurus, New York: Oxford University Press, 2009, p.982.

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Costello: Canadian Afghanistan War Artist: Canadian Forces Artists Program

An Overview of the Great Expulsion,
Subsequent Migrations and Acadian
Cultural Persistence
Saskia Perriard-Abdoh
English and Modern Languages

Supervisor: Dr. Brian Goehring

Abstract
This research essay provides an overview of the historical context preceding the Great Expulsion
which took place in 1755, as well as the resulting Acadian population movements and their
impact on the surrounding landscape. The military justification for the Great Expulsion, the
reaction of the American colonies towards the newly arrived Acadians, and the aftermath of
the Seven Years War are all touched upon in order to provide a clear chronological narrative.
This has been done by compiling and synthesizing information from a variety of sources. The
development of the Acadian culture from its inception to the present-day is an integral part of
Canadian history. The purpose of this paper is to present the survival of the Acadian culture
through a very tumultuous and crucial time in Canadian history.

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Introduction
Since the start of the European expansion into the New World, Canada was a
point of contention between two world powers at the time, England and France.
The Acadians were one of the many cultural groups affected by the series of
conflicts between the two empires. However, the Acadians are notable since
despite their French origins, they did not regard themselves as being part of
New France. This can be attributed to the geographical isolation of their land,
Acadia. It encompassed most of the modern day Maritimes, and was put aside
after the more profitable discovery of the St Lawrence passageway. For this
reason, it became less of a priority for the French. Thus, the Acadian culture
was permitted to develop, free from the external administrative influences
of the old continent. This research essay aims to provide an overview of the
historical context preceding the Great Expulsion which took place in 1755, as
well as the resulting Acadian population movements and their impact on the
surrounding landscape. The military justification for the Great Expulsion, the
reaction of the American colonies towards the newly arrived Acadians, and
the aftermath of the Seven Years War are all examined in order to provide
a clear chronological narrative which presents the survival of the Acadian
culture through a very tumultuous and crucial time in Canadian history.

The Great Expulsion
Acadia had changed hands on multiple occasions prior to the establishment
of the Treaty of Utrecht in 1713. Yet this treaty is significant, since France was
forced to permanently cede all claims to Acadia, which the British quickly
renamed Nova Scotia. However, despite giving up the mainland, France
retained control of the islands surrounding it.1 They immediately began to
shore up their defences, as can be seen with the founding of Fort Louisbourg
on Ile Royale in 1719. This permitted them to solidify their grasp on the entry
of the St Lawrence River and retain a position of influence in the area.2 As
the British began to settle in their newly conquered territories, they faced
opposition from the three cultural groups already present; the Mi’kmaq, the
French and the Acadians.
One would be remiss to ignore the importance of Fort Louisbourg in
regards to the development of the events leading up to the Great Expulsion.
The reasons for building the French fort can be seen as being initially
defensive. Its purpose was to protect Quebec city and the rest of New
France from British attack, by controlling access to the St Lawrence river.3
However, during King George’s war, it began to take on an increasingly

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Perriard-Abdoh: An Overview of the Great Expulsion, Subsequent Migrations and Acadian Cultural Persistence

offensive role in military operations. The attacks carried out by the French
from Fort Louisbourg include the battle for Fort St Anne and the multiple
sieges of Annapolis Royal, previously known as Port Royal.4 The threat of Fort
Louisbourg was successfully eliminated in 1745. However, the Treaty of Aixla-Chapelle in 1748 returned it to the French, to the dismay and anger of the
British military present on location.5 Since Fort Louisbourg had proved to be
a threat, and had just been returned to the enemy, the need to prevent Acadia
from falling back into French hands became one of the main concerns of the
British government. Thus began a series of conflicts which became known as
Father Le Loutre’s War.
Starting in 1749, the British began building a series of forts in an attempt
to reduce the French threat. Unfortunately, this created new, unforeseen
conflicts: when General Edward Cornwallis landed on the shores of Chebucto
and began building Fort George, situated in present day Halifax, he violated
earlier treaties that had been established in the aftermath of previous conflicts
between the British and the indigenous Mi’kmaq.6 The Mi’kmaq quickly
made their disapproval known by mounting a series of attacks on British
held territory. These attacks became increasingly violent, leading to British
retaliation, which resulted in an escalating amount of casualties on both sides.
The French saw this as an opportunity and began infiltrating both the Acadian
and Mi’kmaq population, encouraging and inciting them to join their cause.7
Acadian rebel leaders such as Joseph Broussard, better known as Beausoleil,
started to openly criticize and attack their conquerors.8 These violent raids
provided the British with an even greater impetus for a strong military stance.
The fact that many Acadians took part in these attacks complicated their
relationship with the British authority.9 While the rebels may or may not have
spoken for the Acadian population as a whole, these attacks, along with the
fact that the Acadians’ claim of neutrality had always been doubted by the
British authority, led Lieutenant-Governor Charles Lawrence to conclude, at
the onset of the Seven Years’ War, that exiling the Acadians was the only way
to ensure that Nova Scotia would not fall once more into French hands.10
From a purely military standpoint, it seems that Lawrence was justified:
in the aftermath of the Great Expulsion, Nova Scotia continued to grow in
military importance throughout the Seven Years War, culminating when
one of its forts, Fort George, was used as the launching point for the second
siege of Fort Louisbourg in 1758.11 An important battle in its own right, this
particular victory can be regarded as the turning point in the Seven Years
War. At the time, the strength of a country’s navy directly affected its chances
of victory. Not only were ships powerful weapons with their cannons, they

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were also efficient means of transport; channeling troops and supplies quickly
from port to port, as John Grenier states: “The key to the French campaign in
Acadia depended on the navy’s ability to supply the army.”12
The fall of Fort Louisbourg underlines this important notion; England now
had full control over the coastline. With the loss of their fort, New France was
cut off from their source of finances and man power.13 It is also important
to note that the British used Louisbourg as a launching point for their naval
attacks on Quebec.14 This culminated in the Battle of the Plains of Abraham
in 1759, in other words, the fall of New France. This in turn led to France
relinquishing all claims to Canada at the end of the Seven Years War, with the
exception of the two islands, Saint Pierre et Miquelon.15 To attack New France,
Fort Louisbourg needed to be conquered. For this to occur, the British needed
to cement their claim on Nova Scotia, a feat they accomplished by deporting
the majority of the Acadian population.

The Aftermath
The Great Expulsion can be regarded as being comprised of two separate
deportations which occurred in 1755 and 1758. For the purpose of this paper,
we will be focusing on the first, which resulted in over 7000 Acadians being
scattered among the Thirteen colonies.16 Many historians have recorded
the deficiencies of the British government in regards to the treatment of
the Acadian people. The general consensus is that the Expulsion was badly
planned, and that the living conditions were atrocious. As a result, entire
families were separated, and many died due to starvation and sickness.17
While these facts may be excused due to the time constraints surrounding
the Expulsion and the fact that this event occurred during a period of wartime, the treatment the Acadians received once they arrived to their assigned
destinations could not be dismissed using the same rationale.
Despite not having enough resources to accommodate the newly arrived
Acadians, a few colonies, Maryland and Connecticut in particular, made efforts
to welcome them by giving them shelter and in the case of the latter, making
provisions for them in their legislature: “[they were to] be made welcome,
helped and settled under the most advantageous conditions, or if they have
to be sent away, measures be taken for their transfer.”18 Unfortunately, this
was not characteristic of the way the Acadians were welcomed in the other
colonies. Acadians sent to Massachusetts were forced to stay in the harbour
for three months during the winter time. As a result of William Shirley’s
orders, approximately half of them died due to freezing temperatures and
malnutrition.19 Once they were actually allowed to debark, many children

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were taken away from the remnants of the family they had and distributed to
American families.20
The authorities in Virginia, refused outright to accept Acadians. They were
eventually sent to England where they were held as prisoners of war until the
Treaty of Paris in 1763.21 There are also reports that many Acadians sent to South
Carolina, North Carolina and Georgia were forced to work on plantations.22
These facts point to the conclusion that the Acadians were regarded as being
burdens on the American colonies. Thus, it is not surprising that the resources
available to them were very limited. As outlined above, in many cases they
were greeted with hostility and contempt. However, it was thought by the
British government that the Acadian threat had been successfully neutralized
since they would eventually assimilate and thus become Americans -- this
however, proved to not be the case.23 Also very telling is the fact that during
the second expulsion, the Acadians were sent directly to England.24 While it
is only pure speculation, it is possible that the British government, realizing
that the American colonies were not willing to welcome new French-speaking
individuals of a different faith into their communities, decided to search for
other alternatives. One such alternative would have been sending them back
to their home country, a place they knew little of and had only heard about
from old family stories passed down from generation to generation.
With the end of the Seven Years Wars in 1763, the Acadians were once
again free to travel. This is significant because the following migrations were
the ones instigated by the Acadians themselves. Many returned to France
in the late 1770s.25 However, once they arrived, they now faced a difficult
situation; in the same manner the Acadians had always regarded themselves
as being separate from the citizens in New France, they did not identify as
being French. This can be attributed to the fact that the Acadian identity
had evolved in a different direction than that of their French counterparts.
Language was now the only thing they shared. Their customs and cultures
were no longer interchangeable with each other. For this reason, a significant
percentage chose to return and settle in the new world; out of the approximate
5000 Acadians who made their way to France, more than half left it within
one generation.26 Instead of culturally assimilating and thus vanishing, they
built themselves new homelands, the two largest of these new settlement, are
present-day Louisiana and New Brunswick which still pride themselves on
their Acadian heritage.
Due to its origin as a French colony, Louisiana seemed like one the best
alternative for many Acadians. It already had a strong French speaking
population and by 1764 it was firmly controlled by the Spanish after the

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terms of the Treaty of Fontainebleau were revealed; thus it was out of British
control.27 The years passed, and the Acadians became part of the existing
Creoles population, yet they still retained remnants of their Acadian identity;
note the evolution from Acadian to Cadian to the present day term Cajun. As
the name used to describe them changed, so did their culture; the presentday Cajun culture may initially seem to be entirely separate from its Acadian
origin. However, this can be attributed to the fact that all cultures evolve,
merge and sometimes even disappear. What is notable about the Acadians in
Louisiana is that while their modern day cultural presence may be disputed,
their geographical impact cannot be: some of the territories they initially
settled in are now defined as Acadiana, thus referring directly to its origin.
The Acadians who returned to their homelands faced a much harder path.
The newly appointed governor, Michael Francklin, gave them guarantees to
encourage their return: Not only would they have the right to practice their
Catholic faith, he also issued a promise that there would be no more attempts
to exile them.28 However, upon their arrival, the Acadians found that their
previously fertile farmlands were either destroyed and neglected, or given to
newly arrived British and New England settlers. Quickly recognizing that any
attempt to regain their land would be futile, they began to search for different
alternatives. At the time, present day New Brunswick was mostly uninhabited
since the British preferred to establish themselves along known territory in the
maritimes.29 Among other reasons this is the essential reason that led to the
British government’s decision to allow the Acadians’ settlements to continue.
Due to the terrain, which was not well suited to agriculture, and the harsh
living conditions the Acadians chose to settle along the coast.30 To survive, they
were forced reduce their reliance on farming and develop other means to fulfill
their financial needs. Initially the fishing industry fulfilled that need. Later, the
rise of European demand for lumber, due to the start of the Napoleonic wars
which cut England off from their traditional supply sources, sustained it.31
Instead of culturally assimilating and thus vanishing, the Acadians found new
homelands, finding ways to flourish despite adversity.
To further illustrate this point, the growth of the Acadian population
during this time frame should also be examined. In 1763 at the end of the
Seven Years’ War, less than eight years after the first expulsion, the Acadians
were scattered throughout the Thirteen colonies. However, forty years later,
they had congregated in regions and begun re-establishing themselves in
their former territories. The Acadian population in Louisiana grew by more
than ten-fold. Their presence in Quebec more than quadrupled, while the
Maritimes also showed a similar increase in population. Most telling is the fact

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that the total population had doubled, indicating that despite their hardships,
the Acadians had successfully ensured that their customs would be passed on
to the next generation.32

Conclusion
Throughout Canadian history, many cultural groups suffered as a result of
the various conflicts. Yet the Acadians are notable since despite their French
origins, they had developed into their own culture. Since the Acadians was
permitted to develop, free from the external administrative influences of the
old continent, the result was a culturally independent population that had little
concern for the larger-scale struggle of gaining control over territory. In many
ways, The Great Expulsion can be defined as an event that both destroyed
and created a culture. While ancestral lands and ways of life were irrevocably
lost, instead of assimilating into their surroundings many Acadians retained
their values and adapted to their surroundings as indicated by the renewal
of Acadian culture that can be observed in the present-day Maritimes and
Louisiana.
When it comes to representing a culture’s identity, perhaps no other
symbol can accomplish this purpose as well as a flag. Hence, the Acadian flag
which was designed and introduced in 1884 at the Second Annual Acadian
National Convention becomes paramount to the Acadian culture. More than a
hundred years after the Great Expulsion, the Acadian identity was for the first
time represented by its own flag.33 The words of Father Richard, the man who
created it, clearly underline its significance:
“I wish that Acadia has a flag reminding not only that its children are French, but
also that they are Acadians”34
This pride in the Acadian cultural heritage was once more shown with
the creation of the Acadiana flag in 1965, which was meant to represent the
Acadian heritage in Louisiana.35 It is a testament to the strength and resilience
of the Acadian people, and their culture that even now, the need to identify
oneself as Acadian is so prevalent. l

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Endnotes

94

1

John Stewart McLennan, Louisbourg, from its foundation to its fall, 1713-1758, (London,
1918) 58-59.

2

Walter R Borneman, The French and Indian War: deciding the fate of North America, (New
York, 2006) 8.

3

Cole R. Harris and Geoffrey J. Matthews, “The Seven Years’ War,” in: Historical Atlas of
Canada, From the Beginning to 1800, (Toronto 1987) Plate 42.

4

Grenier, The far reaches of empire, 109-115.

5

John Stewart McLennan, Louisbourg, from its foundation to its fall, 1713-1758, (London,
1918) 181.

6

Grenier, The far reaches of empire, 71.

7

Grenier, The far reaches of empire, 148.

8

Grenier, The far reaches of empire,150, 160.

9

Peter Ward, “The Acadian Response To The Growth Of British Power In Nova Scotia,
1749-1755,” Dalhousie Review 51 (1971): 175.

10

Steven G. Greiert, “The Earl of Halifax and the Settlement of Nova Scotia, 1749-1753,”
Nova Scotia Historical Review 1 (1981): 22.

11

Harris, “The Seven Years’ War,” in: Historical Atlas of Canada, Plate 42.

12

Grenier, The far reaches of empire, 119.

13

Frank W. Brecher, Losing a Continent: France’s North American policy, 1753-1763, (Westport,
1998) 135-136.

14

Harris, “The Seven Years’ War,” in: Historical Atlas of Canada, Plate 42.

15

Brecher, Losing a Continent, 153.

16

Cole R. Harris and Geoffrey J. Matthews, “Acadian Deportation And Return,” in:
Historical Atlas of Canada, From the Beginning to 1800, (Toronto 1987) Plate 30.

17

Naomi E.S Griffiths, From Migrant to Acadian, (Montreal, 2005) 438.

18

Bona Arsenault, Histoire des Acadiens, (Quebec, 2004) 153.

19

Fintan O’Toole, White Savage, William Johnson and the Invention of America, (New York,
2005) 154.

20

Arsenault, Histoire des Acadiens, 197.

21

Arsenault, Histoire des Acadiens, 203.

22

John Mack Farragher, A great and noble scheme: the tragic story of the expulsion of the French
Acadians from their American Homeland. (New York, 2005) 353.

23

Geoffrey Gilbert Plank, An Unsettled Conquest: the British Campaign Against the Peoples of
Acadia. (Philadelphia, 2001) 70.

24

Cole R. Harris and Geoffrey J. Matthews, “Acadian War and Return,” in: Historical Atlas
of Canada, From the Beginning to 1800, (Toronto 1987) Plate 30.

25

Harris, “Acadian War and Return,” Plate 30.

26

Harris, “Acadian War and Return,” Plate 30.

27

“Notre Dame Archives: Louisiana.” Notre Dame Archives. http://archives.nd.edu/mano/
louisian.htm (accessed November 20, 2011).

Perriard-Abdoh: An Overview of the Great Expulsion, Subsequent Migrations and Acadian Cultural Persistence

28

“FRANCKLIN, MICHAEL - Dictionary of Canadian Biography Online.” http://www.
biographi.ca/009004-119.01-e.php?&id_nbr=1892 (accessed November 25, 2011).

29

Cole R. Harris and Geoffrey J. Matthews, “Loyalist Settlements” in: Historical Atlas of
Canada, From the Beginning to 1800, (Toronto 1987) Plate 32.

30

Harris, “Acadian War and Return,” Plate 30.

31

William Stewart MacNutt, “The Politics of the Timber Trade in Colonial New Brunswick,
1825–40.” Canadian Historical Review, 30 (1949): 63.

32

Harris, “Acadian War and Return,” Plate 30.

33

Perry Biddiscombe, “Le tricolore et l’étoile; The Origin of the Acadian National Flag,
1867–1912.” Acadiensis 20 (1990): 120.

34

Biddiscombe The Origin of the Acadian National Flag, 124.

35

Shane K. Bernard, The Cajuns: Americanization of a people. (Jackson 2003) 167.

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Does Convergence Theory Help to
Explain Resiliency after Land Reform
in Mexican Ejidos?
Bonnie Klohn
Interdisciplinary Studies

Supervisor: Dr. Terry Kading

Abstract
Since 1917 as much as half of Mexico’s land base has been dominated by
state-led communal agricultural lands called ejidos. However, relatively
recently, major land reforms have taken place. Starting in 1992-93 laws were
passed prohibiting the expansion of common state-run land and allowing the
privatization of ejido land. In 1995 Mexico joined the North American Free
Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which requires the government to gradually take
away all price guarantees, protective tariffs, and barriers on staples like corn
and beans. In addition Mexico is required to open up its economy to foreign
investment and export markets. This is causing in some ejido lands a decline
in income and/ or an increased instability of employment for ejido residents.
The theory of convergence states that when a regional economy’s needs
converge with the goods and services it is producing, a more stable and
resilient economy results; an economy that is less prone to macro economic
changes in the global economy. The theory of convergence economics comes
from Clive Thomas (1974) who studied the effects of convergence in the
economy particularly related to food and the agricultural crops in Tanzania in
the 1970s. During these years, almost ten years after Tanzanian independence
the government was pursuing policies that share some resemblance to current
Mexican economic policies. Policies that aim to increase the production of
export crops, and market openness. Using case studies from three ejidos,
this paper addresses the question of whether the level of ejido community
resiliency through the land reforms have corresponded to some form of
convergence in their agricultural production and consumption.

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Introduction
In many parts of the world communal lands exist and predominate over land
resources. Countries such as China, Vietnam, most parts of Africa, and many
countries in Latin America have political and social structures for land set aside
for communal agriculture (Deininger and Bresciani, 2001). Ejidos originated
in Mexico with the 1917 constitution after the Mexican revolution. Ejidos are
state-led agricultural lands that have been farmed communally. Traditionally,
those who farmed the land, the ejiditarios, never held title to these lands but
rather had usufruct rights that allowed the use of water and terrain. The
federal government reports “29,000 ejidos, with 3.5 million ejidatarios” that
covers half of national territory (Haenn, 2006: 137). Three million households,
more than half the rural population of Mexico lives on the 100 million hectares
of ejido land (Deininger and Bresciani, 2001: 2). Ejidos, which were initially
implemented to model precolonial indigenous social structures, are found
in all parts of Mexico and make up 50% of the total available arable land
(ibid.). The governing power in ejidos is shared among stakeholders, along
with the land. In ejidos, agrarian or forest based livelihoods are customary
and resources in the community are usually distributed relatively equally
(Barnes, 2009).
Convergence in ejidos means the production of crops, aquaculture,
and other goods being produced within the community that consumes
them. Although a shift away from this model can bring benefits to many
communities, convergence theory is based on studying impoverished areas
of the world, and factors such as ease of access to food, shelter, health care
and other basics used as metrics for the relative well being of a community
instead of traditional economic metrics such as Gross Domestic Product. By
measuring resilience it could be interpreted that the goal of ejido communities
is to remain the same, or resist change. This study is not commenting on the
overall goals of ejidarios or the ejido community in Mexico at large. However,
measuring resilience is pertinent because ejidarios did not choose these land
reform changes nor vote NAFTA nor any other international trade policy that
forces them from their homes because they are no longer able to make money
from farming tradition staples nor other types of goods. Ultimately this study
aims to ascertain whether ejidarios who would like to choose to live in these
communal agrarian settings as they did before the land reforms are indeed
able to.
I chose case studies based on the available case studies of ejidos in the
literature. There were two factors that influenced the choice of ejido to be used
as a case study. First, in the literature review I looked for articles that followed

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an ejido or group of ejidos over a time period that spanned the land reforms.
Second, I looked for articles that contained qualitative information such as
employment availability within the ejido, worker commute times to outside
jobs, and whether ejidarios are earning incomes at numerous seasonal jobs or
simply at one place of employment. I was looking for case studies that gave
more quantitative information on whether the form and structure of the ejidos
(as resilience is defined below) remained the same after the PROCEDE land
reforms and the trade policies in NAFTA.

Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to use case studies from three ejidos to addresses
the question of whether ejido communities that have maintained resiliency
through the land reforms have practiced some form of convergence in their
agricultural production and consumption. Similar to the results Clive Thomas
found in Tanzania, in these impoverished areas, it appears that corporate
ownership of land and control over the production of crops (destined for
export) does seem to inhibit access to basic needs, and stable income in the
ejidos in the case study, resulting in population loss, long commuted for those
who stay and a loss of access to the once communal land.

Land reforms in Mexico
The official ending of ejidos as communal state-led agricultural land was in
1992. The ejido system had been criticized for three main reasons leading
to this change. First, because ejidos were thought to hinder land access to
young people in rural areas; fifty three percent of ejidarios are older than 50
(Deininger and Bresciani, 2001: 2). Second, ejidos can be seen as an obstacle
to urban expansion when located next to burgeoning city centers, and finally,
they are charactarized by low levels of “capital investment” (ibid.). With the
PROCEDE program (Programa Nacional de Certificacion de Derechos Ejidales
y Solares Urbanos or Program for the Certification of Ejido Land Rights and
the Titling of Urban House Lots), there were several other changes to the
Mexican political system that drastically altered the facility of farming and the
livelihoods of the ejidarios. These shocks started with a serious pull back of
support for Mexican farmers in the debt crisis during the 1980’s (Parramond,
2008). The government enacted the PROCEDE program following the debt
crisis in 1992. PROCEDE allowed the mapping of historic land use patterns
and the privatization of land to the ejiditarios that farmed it (Parramond,
2008; Barnes 2009). The PROCEDE program also greatly increased the limits
on maximum allowable owned land for corporations. Previously individuals

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or corporations did not have the right to farm over 100 hectares of land, and
while this is still the case with individuals, corporations have the right to
purchase twenty five times that historic maximum (Bonnis & Legg, 1997).
Shortly after the PROCEDE program implementation, Mexico signed
the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the first free trade
agreement between developed and developing nations to include agriculture
(Bonnis & Legg, 1997). NAFTA required the total elimination of agricultural
subsidies to farmers in ejidos, as well as the eradication of tariffs and barriers
for trade with the United States and Canada by 2008 (Barnes, 2009; Bonnis
& Legg, 1997). NAFTA caused an aggregate shift to the production of export
fruits and vegetable, reducing crops for local consumption (Getz, 2008). This
affected farmers who relied on set prices for staples such as corn and beans.
Another program called Procampo, was initiated to give direct payments to
land holding farmers, because of the reduction of the price supports (Bonnis &
Legg, 1997). However, after the removal of the trade tariffs in 2008, the market
was flooded (even regarded as “dumped on”) with much cheaper corn and
beans from the rest of North America, particularly from the Unites States, and
many Mexican farmers in ejidos could no longer make a living producing
these crops (Jacinto, 2008). This has been demonstrated numerous times by
protesting farmers who oppose the restrictions for government support of
farmers and barriers to trade (BBC, 2012 Jan 23).
In the literature, the primary driver of change in Mexican ejidos is usually
attributed more to the signing of NAFTA than the PROCEDE program. This
is because the process for a consensus decision on how to privatize the land,
and even whether to privatize the land is rare in ejidos. Research from the
late 1990s suggests that only 2% of ejidos has indeed taken advantage of
the opportunity to privatize (Haenn, 2006). However, this number is likely
increasing, especially in areas where demand for land is high. Mexican farmers
on ejidos in areas near cities experience the effects of urbanization, particularly
the rising prices of land around these areas. In some areas, including popular
tourist destinations, this places a lot of pressure on the ejidos because the land
prices were so high (Barnes, 2009).
In summary, by 1992 ejidos were largely deemed uneconomic by
government and policy makers. Starting with the supports pulled out from
farmers during the debt crisis in the 1980s, then the allowance of corporate
ownership of large tracts of ejido land due to PROCEDE in 1992, and finally
the removal of all trade tariffs and barriers due to NAFTA in 1995, traditional
ejidarios farming on communal land drastically changes and largely became
less viable financially.

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Convergence theory
As mentioned in the introduction, convergence theory is the notion that by
bringing together the production capacity of a community and the needs
of that community, a better quality of life can be achieved in impoverished
places (Thomas, 1974). Conversely, divergence is the process by which local
crops and ownership of land moves away from locally consumable products
and is characterized by heavy capital investment and large-scale goods for
exports. In Tanzania and Mexico, a social structure existed where many
local staples were once grown and consumed in the same regional economy.
In Mexico, traditional corn, beans and other vegetables like squash were
commonly grown for local consumption or at least for domestic consumption.
Trade barriers and tariffs helped protect the price of goods grown locally, so
farmers were incentivized to continue to produce goods that met the demands
of the local population. The simple but profound theory that resiliency is
greater when economic supply and demand converge has been largely
overshadowed globally by government policies that encourage foreign
investment and export market development to improve prosperity. Thomas
(1974) argues that although GDP may increase with the rise of deregulated
and large-scale global trade, the inequality of poor countries often increases
too, and education, health care and basic nutrition become harder to obtain
for a large percentage of the population (Thomas, 1974). The reason I chose
to look at this development theory in particular was the link between postcolonial Tanzanian policies and the types of policies the Mexican government
has implemented since signing NAFTA in 1995. In both cases the governments
are inviting foreign interests to purchase land, invest capital and produce
for the export market. Both countries experienced a variety of shocks over
a number of years that destabilized their traditional land use. Finally, the
populations of rural farmers in both Tanzania in the 1970s and Mexico more
recently struggled with export market policies. In Tanzania, Thomas (1974)
describes the difficulties as pertaining to the growing competition and high
elasticity of demand in the global market for the export crops that were grown
and produced in Tanzania. In Mexico, it is difficult for an ejiditario who loses
the ability to support his family through farming, to earn a similar standard of
living through seasonal employment with a large export oriented farm.

Resilience
In Clive Thomas’s book, he describes the success of programs to encourage
convergence in the Unjamaa village in Tanzania. This community was
experiencing difficultly with policies that encourage land and labour to be
directed to the export market. Thomas suggests methods for converging
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Klohn: Does Convergence Theory Help to Explain Resiliency after Land Reform in Mexican Ejidos?

supply and demand to help Unjamaa hold on to its structure and function.
This is part of the definition of resiliency: “Resilient systems are able to absorb
shocks and adapt themselves without changing their fundamental structure
and function” (Barnes, 2009: 393).
In this paper, I will look at whether elements of convergence found in case
studies of Mexican ejidos increase the resilience of the ejido. I will look at
instances where production and consumption converge, as well as the inverse
divergence, which Thomas describes as: “rooted in such basic structural
relationships as foreign ownership and control of domestic resources, export
specialization for metropolitan markets, the pervasiveness of foreign decision
making over domestic economic processes” (p.123). I will assess, based on the
three case studies on Ejidos where components of convergence and divergence
are present what sort of effect it had on the needs of the local community
being met.

Map 1. Case study locations: Sinaloa, Sonora and Yucatan.
Google maps, 2013.

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Case study: El Cerro, Sinaloa
In El Cerro, a fairly new ejido (established in the 1970s), there is a fairly high
concentration of commercial agriculture that provides seasonal employment
for ejidarios. The primary crops are chili, mangoes and broomcorn for export.
This represents the main divergent economic factor in the community. There
is also a shrimp export industry in the area, which employs six local residents.
An element of divergence can be found in the fishing industry. Most of the
men in El Cerro fish all year round, a steadier source of income; they sell the
fish to local restaurants and catch crab for their own consumption. This was
the main food production in the area. Poor soil quality prevents El Cerro from
being able to grow crops without investment of some kind of fertilizer input.
Cruz-Torres (2004) also noted there were several non-ejidarios members of
the community, and that these people were far poorer than their land owning
counter-parts.
El Cerro is a good example of resiliency in an ejido that displays signs of
convergence. The main industry, seafood harvesting provides steady yearlong
income to its workers, and the harvest is going to local restaurants for
consumption. The non-ejidarios members of the community who experienced
increased poverty exemplify one of the criticisms of the ejido system, that they
make access to land more difficult for those who live in rural areas outside
of ejidos. Ultimately, they are not privy to the benefits of the convergence
of El Cerro’s economy without land or water rights to produce food for
consumption. The next case study shows that when the regional economic
trends are more divergent, it can result in many ejidarios living in extreme
poverty, and giving up access to their land through leasing agreements.
Case Study: Coastal Sonora Ejidos
In this 2006 study Luers, Naylor, & Matson looked at a group of 41 coastal
ejidos in close proximity on the coast of Sonora. Many of these ejidos reacted
in a similar way to the various land reform shocks, so it is useful to look at
them as a group to assess convergent and divergent trends. Particularly
after NAFTA was signed and the related policies implemented, there was
widespread engagement in commercial shrimp farming. The biggest change
since the land reforms has been the ownership of shrimp farms. In 1990s 70%
of ejiditarios owned shrimp farms, in 2006 only 30% of this same group owned
the farms, and the other 70% were still involved through renting the space to
other commercial shrimp farm companies. The shrimp farming has been a
difficult process for the ejiditarios, and many of the farms actually operate at a
loss. According to Luers, Naylor and Matson’s (2006) over 70% of the ejidarios

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Klohn: Does Convergence Theory Help to Explain Resiliency after Land Reform in Mexican Ejidos?

lose money in shrimp farming. The factors for these losses are two fold.
First, there have been many unfavorable storms that have badly damaged
the infrastructure for the shrimp farms, and second, disease and other
environmental problems in the ecosystem have badly affected the shrimp and
made it difficult for farmers to earn wages. There seemed to be very little
in the way of local consumption of these shrimp in the case study, and little
other economic activity that would service the community itself. This case
study highlights what impact large-scale foreign owned farms can have on
the environment, as well as the economic well being of an area. Not confusing
correlation with causation, it is not possible without an in depth analysis of
the particular environmental problems to determine if this decline in shrimp
farms was indeed due to overcrowding, or too large a scale of production.
However, because little of the food was produced for local consumption,
when shrimp production ceased to be active, many were left unemployed
with no income nor other means of obtaining food. This is an example of
divergence. The theory of divergence and convergence pertains primarily to
impoverished areas and basic needs such as food and shelter. Although the
capital investment of foreign owned companies may eventually benefit the
GDP in Mexico as a whole, during low periods such as in the costal Sonora
ejidos, many workers now dependent on income to purchase food are left
unemployed and with no immediate security. Resilience here is low, as this
forced ejidarios off the land, to look for work in cities, factories, and tourist
areas. Although this in and of itself is not an intrinsically bad outcome, the
resiliency of the ejido to maintain its form and function is almost completely
diminished. Those who would choose to stay on the ejido no longer have the
choice.
Case Study: Yaxbe, Yucatan
Hull (2007) studied an ejido on the east coast of Mexico, in an area that is an
extremely popular tourism destination, as well the site of major Mayan ruins
and historical settlement. She found that the collapse of tradition markets due
to the land reforms in this community resulted in three major changes: (1) a
diversified family income where female wage earnings has doubled, (2) long
commuting long distances for workers from Yaxbe, and (3) the out migration
of many people, especially young people. Hull found that it was quite easy
for women to find low wage jobs in manufacturing, or to move out of Yaxbe
to work in the nearby tourist resorts. Some men succeeded in finding work
in heavy industry and heavy manufacturing, but overall, the land reforms
in this ejido affected middle-aged men the most. There is some vegetable

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farming but again the soil quality in the region is a barrier for producing
food for local consumption. In this case study we see that foreign interests
in the tourist sector draw people away from the ejidos and manufacturing
export product wages are very low. Unfortunately, there is little opportunity
to produce food and goods in the community that will be consumed by the
community, as the market failures have resulted in in the impracticality of
traditional farming crops.

Discussion
On a nation wide level the debt crisis, PROCEDE land reforms and policies
related to NAFTA have resulted in increased poverty in the rural sector, an
increase in income inequality in ejidos and a decrease an actual numbers
employment in agriculture (Getz, 2008; Jacinto, 2008). In the description of the
main characteristics of ejidos Barnes (2009) cites communal and participatory
government, livelihood strategies based on agriculture or forestry (or
aquaculture) and finally the equitable distribution of resources in an ejido
as the main aspects. In the case studies it seems that these fundamental
elements of ejidos have eroded in many ways, and in some cases convergence
did help prevent this erosion. Convergence of demands and local supply in
the example of fishing in El Cerro support convergence theory because the
economic activities that were aimed for local consumption provided yearround employment whereas the commercial farming only afforded locals
seasonal jobs. In El Cerro and Yaxbe, the soil quality was a barrier to local
food production of vegetables, making efforts for convergence difficult.
However, while employment seemed to be relatively stable in El Cerro where
the aquaculture industry supports local food consumption, in Yaxbe, many
ejidarios were left with no choice but to find work outside of the ejido in
manufacturing, tourism and industry jobs. These jobs offered very low wages,
and were sometimes only seasonal. In addition, divergence of the shrimp farm
industry in Sonora, where major foreign investment resulted in exporting the
majority of all the shrimp harvested, caused an increase in debt levels of the
ejiditarios, and more uneven distribution of resource amongst community
members due to ocean based environmental problems that caused the shrimp
population to collapse.
On the other hand, in Yaxbe, located in Yucatan, close to Cancun and
other popular tourist destinations, divergence is beneficial to ejiditarios in the
short term in that ejidarios can sell farms for retirement funds. This does help
people living in poverty access basic needs such as food, shelter and health
care. However, it does not contribute to the overall resiliency of the ejido

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structure, as land is sold off, many times bought up by foreign owned tourist
companies, or taken over by urban growth. The ultimate result is a loss in the
form and function of a communal agricultural land.
Overall, the aggregate trend towards divergence after the Mexican land
reforms seem to have damaged the form and function of most ejidos in the
case studies, even if, like Yaxbe, the benefits are clear in the short term. The
economy in El Cerro shows that convergence helps to maintain stable income
for the ejidarios. In Sonora, the increase in scale and foreign ownership that
accompanied the divergence (and increased export crops) resulted in an
overburdened environment and lack of access to a means of food production
for those who had lost jobs with big export crop firms.

Conclusion
In some cases where land demand is high, divergence can help farmers in the
short term by selling their land, or leasing it to a commercial corporation, this
type of activity is seen as a relatively short term solution that often results in
an aggregate shift to low wage income earners. Although NAFTA has been
well underway for a number of years now and it would be very difficult to
re-open (Jacinto, 2008). Just as Thomas saw in Tanzania in the 1970s, while
heavy foreign capital investments and the elimination of protective tariffs
and trade barriers helps boost national GDP, and exports from a country,
they can cause a struggle for people in impoverished rural areas to access
their basic needs. While increasing global trade and capital investment in
projects can work well in first world, adequately diverse economies, when
dealing with extreme poverty, where access to food, shelter and health care
can be in jeopardy, a destabilization such as the land and policy reforms in
Mexico can be very harmful. These three case studies are a small sample size
but, couched in convergence theory, they nonetheless shed light on how and
why a community may be more resilient when its economy is more focused
on meeting its immediate local needs. Income stability, decreased risk of
population loss, less pressure on ejidarios to travel long distances away from
their home to work, less incentive to move away from the ejido and a more
careful balance of scale of production to avoid environmental issues or the
collapse of a food source species were primary ways in which convergence
increased resilience in Mexican ejidos. l

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