Thompson Rivers University (TRU)

The Impact of Climate Change on the Lives of Poor Migrants to Dhaka City
By

Ashikur Rahman
A Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of
MASTER OF SCIENCE IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
In
The Department of Environmental Science

Supervising Committee
Dr. Hasnat Dewan (Supervisor),
Dr. Tom Dickinson, Dr. Peter Tsigaris
Winter 2016

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Abstract
For low-lying Bangladesh, climate change is not just a harbinger of devastation. Effects of
climate change are seen in the form of flood, drought and cyclone and this not only leaves
irreparable damages but also gives rise to a mass number of climate refugees or
environmentally displaced people. Due to direct and indirect impacts of climate change, the
propensity for city-centric migration is increasing. This rural-urban migration partly occurs
as migrants seek for a healthier place to settle down and the assessment is done by trying to
find relatively better social, economic and environmental conditions in the city areas. This
research is an intensive exploration of the lives in slums in Dhaka City, where a significant
percentage of the dwellers are climate-affected drifters. It scrutinizes the livelihood problems
that migrants face after coming to Dhaka City slums and how their problems are intensified
due to climate change. The study uses four slums at Bosila, Korail, Badda, and Agargaon in
Dhaka. It investigates the reasons for migration and the socio-economic and health problems
the migrants face afterwards. The research also answers questions to what challenges they
face in the process and what coping mechanisms they adopt to combat them. In addition to
primary data, secondary data from various books, journals, and other sources were also
analyzed to probe into the issue. The study hypothesizes that climate induced migrants to
Dhaka City slums are not immune to miseries from further climate related problems. The
analysis adjudicated that there is a major void in the implementation of rules, regulations, and
policies from different levels of governing bodies, and therefore, the slum dwellers are prone
to scores of socio-economic & health related problems due to environmental change.
Keywords: Climate change, migration, urban slums, Dhaka City, Bangladesh

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Acknowledgement
This thesis paper is a priceless achievement for me because of a number of reasons. I always
wanted to do something for the society where I grew up in a rather productive fashion. When
I first sat down to decide my thesis topic, I looked at the various opportunities available for
me to do so. As an Environmentalist with altruistic ardor at heart, I thought of delving deep
into interweaving an environmentally sound approach to later help the society. I hope with
the motivation and untainted intention with which I started this paper, my hard work does
justice to serve the true purpose of this paper.
First and foremost, I shall endow my ultimate gratitude to my respected supervisor Dr.
Hasnat Dewan. I couldn’t have gotten a better picture of how a full length research is carried
out so meticulously, hadn’t he been so helpful and supportive. In addition, I would express
my sincere gratitude to my co-supervisors Dr. Tom Dickinson and Dr. Peter Tsigaris for their
support during my thesis.
I would also like to thank Dhaka city slum dwellers for allowing me to collect samples from
4 different spots and Thompson Rivers University to facilitate services to carry out different
tests for this study.
Finally, I will endow a special note of gratitude to my mother. Her priceless motivation
helped me begin my journey of studying the Environmental Sciences. I hope I can live up to
her dreams of becoming a true environmentalist and offer the country the best of my intellect.
Thanking There,

Ashikur Rahman

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Table of Contents
Abstract……………………………………………………………………………..ii
Acknowledgement………………………………………………………………….iii
Table of Contents.....................................................................................................iv
List of Abbreviations………………………………………………………………vi
List of Figures ………….........................................................................................vii
List of Tables………………………………………………………………………vii
Chapter 1: Introduction
1.1 Introduction………………………………………………………………………8
1.2 Background……………………………………………………………………….9
1.3 Climate Change and Migration………………………………………………….10
1.4 Problem Statement………………………………………………………………11
1.5 Context and Rationale…………………………………………………………...13
1.6 Hypothesis……………………………………………………………………….13
1.7 Aim………………………………………………………………………………13
1.8 Objective………………………………………………………………………...14
1.9 Significance of the study………………………………………………………...14
Chapter 2: Literature Review
2.1 Climate Change
2.1.1 What is Climate Change?......................................................................15
2.1.2Why does climate change occur……………………………………….15
2.1.3 Climate Change worldwide…………………………………………..16
2.1.4Observed impacts in the complex and changing world……………….16
2.1.5 Climate Change impact on Bangladesh………………………………17
2.1.6Climate Change impact on Dhaka…………………………………..18
2.1.7Climate Change and Dhaka Slums……………………………………19
2.2 Migration
2.2.1 Ways Climate Change affects Migration…………………………………….19
2.2.2 Situation of Migrants after Migration………………………………………..20
2.2.3 Status of the Urban Poor in Dhaka Slums……………………………………21
2.2.4 Migration as Livelihood Adaptation Strategy……………………………….21
2.2.5 Conceptual Framework………………………………………………………22

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2.3 Climatic conditions in Bangladesh
2.3.1 Temperature and Rainfall…………………………………………………23
2.3.2 Cyclones…………………………………………………………………..24
2.3.3 Floods……………………………………………………………………..25
2.4 An overall effect on socio-economic and environmental sectors
2.4.1An evaluation of Food Security……………………………………27
2.4.2 Human Health and Livelihood…………………………………….27
2.4.3 Water and Sanitation………………………………………………28
2.4.4 Trade and Commerce……………………………………………...28
2.4.5 Adaptation Capacity and Coping Mechanisms……………………29
Chapter 3: Data &Methodology
3.1 Introduction…………………………………………………………………30
3.2 Area of research……………………………………………………………..31
3.3 Survey…………………………………………………………………….....33
3.4 Site overview………………………………………………………………..33
3.4.1 Korail……………………………………………………………...34
3.4.2 Bosila……………………………………………………………...34
3.4.3 Badda……………………………………………………………..34
3.4.4 Agargaon………………………………………………………….34
3.5 Data Analysis
3.5.1 Summary statistics………………………………………………..37
3.5.2 Charts, bar graphs, tables…………………………………………41
3.5.3 Explanation of each………………………………………………41
Chapter 4: Limitations.......................................................................................64
Chapter 5: Recommendations………………………………………………...65
Chapter 6: Conclusions......................................................................................66
References ..........................................................................................................67
Appendix
Images…………………………………………………………………..73
Questionnaire…………………………………………………………...75

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List of Abbreviations
ADB – Asian Development Bank
BCAS - Bangladesh Centre for Urban Studies
CUS - Centre for Urban Studies
CFC- Chlorofluorocarbon
DCC - Dhaka City Corporation
GDP- Gross Domestic Product
GHGs – Green House Gases
ICDDRB - International Centre for Diarrheal Disease and Research, Bangladesh
IOM – International Organization of Migration
IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
MDGs – Millennium Development Goals
MVCs – Most Vulnerable Countries
NGO - Non Governmental Organization
RAJUK – Rajdhani Unnayan Kartripakkha (Capital Development Authority)
SATU – Social Advancement through Unity
UN – United Nations
UNHRC – United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
UNFCCC - United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
WASA - Water Supply and Sewerage Authority
WB - World Bank
WHO- World Health Organization

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List of Figures
Figure 2.1: A conceptual Framework………………………………………………….22
Figure 3.1: Slums of Dhaka City Map………………………………………………....36

List of Tables
Table 3.1: Summery Statistics…………………………………………………………36
Table 3.2: Rain Problem……………………………………………………………….39
Table 3.3: Problems due to high temperature………………………………………….40
Table 3.4: Sources of water……………………………………………………………42
Table 3.5: Water Collection Problem during rain……………………………………...43
Table 3.6: Defection Problem…………………………………………………………..44
Table 3.7: Disease Problem…………………………………………………………….45
Table 3.8: Impact of last flood on Income……………………………………………..47
Table 3.9: Climate Change Perception…………………………………………………48
Table 3.10: Sources of information about Climate Change……………………………49
Table 3.11: Importance of Climate Change……………………………………………50
Table 3.12: Climate Change affects……………………………………………………51
Table 3.13: Reasons for climate change……………………………………………….52
Table 3.14: Korail Slum (Correlation Matrix)…………………………………………54
Table 3.15: Bosila Slum (Correlation Matrix)…………………………………………54
Table 3.16: Badda Slum (Correlation Matrix)…………………………………………55
Table 3.17: Agargaon Slum (Correlation Matrix)……………………………………..55
Table 3.18: All Slums (Correlation Matrix)…………………………………………...56
Table 3.19: Binary Logistic Regression of Disease, Sickness during 04/07 Floods, and
Weather-related Health Problems……………………………………………………..58
Table 3.20: Binary Logistic Regression of Job Loss/Less Working Hours during 04/07
Floods and Weather-related Job-Loss………………………………………………...59
Table 3.21: Binary Logistic Regression of Slum Dwellers’ Knowledge about Climate Change
and Some of their Perceptions………………………………………………………...61

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Chapter 1
Introduction
Climate change is one of the biggest concerns in Bangladesh. It involves complex
interactions and changing livelihoods, especially among the people who are directly affected
by the events that come uncalled. A new report by a risk analyst, Bangladesh is set to suffer
more from climate change by 2025 than any other country(RTCC, 2013).Bangladesh has its
own innate reasons for its vulnerability towards climate change. This is primarily due to
many factors like its demographic aspects, economic dependence on sectors that are
dependent on climate and other social factors (Azam & Falk, 2013).But considering the
scenario on a broader spectrum, developing countries are usually seen to suffer by the strike
of hazards in the livelihood of people due to their less adaptive capacity and technological
innovation.
Changes in the environment are inevitable and it influences various decisions taken by the
victims of environmental calamities, one of which is migration. Environmental change and
migration is an integral part of worldwide discussions and debates taking place at
international forums and discussions (Azam & Falk, 2013).According to previous studies,
major impacts of climate change fall on the residents of the coastal areas, which happen to be
the place that gets significantly affected after a climatic hazard. The city-centric migration
may take place due to several case-specific problems (Azam & Falk, 2013).

In Bangladesh, there is quite an apparent disparity in the living condition of the poor and the
rich. To exacerbate this issue, there is a major dearth of corrective policies and actions to
ameliorate the situation. The majority of people who are affected by climate induced hazard
are the low-income population groups, whose livelihood in adjusting to the new urban
environment becomes an essential challenge along with combating to the still-existing
climate hazards.

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1.1 Background
Climate change and migration are the two concerns that entangle themselves in a very
complex mode. For Bangladesh meeting both geographic and economic challenges are of
utmost importance and needs serious spotlight in terms of disentangling the perplexities of
the existing scenario.

Though the role of a developing country like Bangladesh in climate change is very limited,
but its impact for our country is disastrous. One of the main reasons of why the amount of
greenhouse gas is increasing in the atmosphere is due to industrialization and urbanization,
mainly because of excessive use of fossil fuels in these sectors. Greenhouse gas emissions
hinder the atmospheric heat to enter the space, thereby causing a continuous rise in the
earth’s temperature. Results of changing environment in a not-so-normal fashion include
irregular rainfall, increase in natural disasters, changes in annual crop cycles, transformations
in the types of diseases, rise in the sea level and even change in biodiversity. Among the
greenhouse gases, most important are carbon dioxide, methane, chlorofluorocarbon (CFC),
sulphur hexafluoride, nitrous oxide, hydro fluorocarbon and per fluorocarbon (EPA, 2015).
Over the past century, effects of climate change have been observed through diverse changes
in the physical system. Changes in the biological systems are also observed in the Earth’s
ecosystem. Climate change is now an axiomatic reality and is widely accepted by the whole
scientific community of the world. A lot of attention is being drawn to this issue today as it’s
an ominous threat to a much dangerous future to the fate of mankind. Also, it has been
bringing various extreme weather events at a much frequent rate with elevating magnitude of
impact than that earlier. These climate events include floods, storms and droughts that lay
harsh consequences on the livelihood of people living in vulnerable areas.

There is mounting disparity between the slum dwellers and the elite population who reside in
the high-class areas of the town. This difference may lead to enhances social and political
instability. The challenges of urbanization include unplanned housing, lack of advanced
planning and comprehensive approach and several others but improving city governance,
decentralization of functions and responsibilities and good urban planning and sound

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incentives are logical recommendations that may provide some solution to these problems
(Helal uz Zaman, Khan & Islam, 2010).

On the other hand, migrants are also influenced by indirect economic impacts. They include
circumstances like lesser yield of crops, falling down of economy and water scarcity. Quite a
few studies have been conducted on this issue and a lot is to be done to delve more intricately
into this crucial matter. People who are made to leave their own area of settlement to migrate
somewhere do not get the legal status as ‘refugees’.

Even after migrating to a new place in the urban sector, they develop various strategies to
cope with the climate variability, which is still present but possibly in a different form now.
Because in the city, the effect of climate change might be new but is still persistent. On their
constant struggle to adjust to the new environment, people also combat to fight against
extreme shock or stresses. The overall scenario makes attaining sustainable development
very difficult here in Bangladesh. Already it is considered that if the situation continues to be
so, it will be even more hindering to attain the Millennium Development Goals (IPCC,
2007). Their capacity to cope with the problems might be limited due to a number of factors.
They primarily encounter the problem of lack of assets for which accessibility to many
solutions face stymie.
1.2 Climate Change and Migration
Along with the several ways that the changing climate lays permanent changes in the lives of
people, migration is still one of the biggest problems. During every catastrophic events of
natural disasters that cause hundreds and thousands of lives to be taken away, people who do
survive from the fiasco plan to move on to a safer ground with their remaining family. The
population growth in the country is already high and along with that, adverse climatic
impacts fall on the more vulnerable portion of the country’s citizens, causing them to get
displaced. This causes much disruption in the social, political and also economic
advancement of the country.

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It is expected that due to the adverse effects of climate change, Bangladesh will have 78
million people displaced in 2020 (Akter, 2009). People have a plan to settle down with better
livelihood patterns when they reside in the urban areas. But the question is if they actually
find that peaceful settlement once moved. Usually the time to adjust to the new environment,
coupled with other concerns to find employment and set the children into a certain pathway
takes a big challenge. They also have to struggle to fit in to the new environment and new
occupation from agricultural to non-agricultural.
1.3 Problem Statement
Climate change puts an onus on the already-existing problems of the poor, which include
social, economic, and environmental challenges.
One of the many problems that it entails is the destruction of the natural resources, resources
on which the poor people mainly depend on. Hence, devastation of mass amount of natural
resources makes poor people to fall into the crevasses of poverty.

Environmental degradation leads to escalating poverty in Bangladesh. People living in the
villages have very little scope and source of income since their occupations range from being
farmers of little available land, agricultural workers and fishermen. As such these people
depend a lot on natural resources for their livelihood.

Not only does the massacre cause infrastructural devastation, it also leaves a lifetime trauma
within the hearts of the people. It includes the grief of losing their family members, takes
them all that’s there in their capacity to recuperate from the damage and also a big amount of
mental strength to reconstruct what has already been lost. The constant rehabilitation and
reconstruction of the damages occur in the Northwestern and Southwestern parts of
Bangladesh, which is particularly vulnerable to disasters (Akter, 2009). But these are
inherent problems that the Bangladeshi climate victims have been encountering and
combating since the birth of the very country. All these make them push themselves to the
population-poverty-environmental nexus (Akter, 2009).

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Lack of identification of the climate refugees is another big issue. Dhaka is not ready for
climate challenges at all. Clearly Dhaka does not have any utility service that can serve the
purpose of proper livelihood of urban poor. But then, they are bound to migrate to Dhaka in
search for better economic facilities. When local work is not obtainable these people migrate
outside (starting from migrating regionally outside the villages while also moving to urban
and semi-urban places) (Azam & Falk, 2013).

During the rainy seasons, it gets extremely problematic for the compact families to move and
find a safer place since their poorly-built slums already get more vulnerable. The city itself is
very compact as it is. Buildings and other infrastructures are being constructed as if there is
no space to walk through in between them. There is a huge fragility of infrastructure in the
slum and squatter surroundings along with lack of sanitation and employment security.
Slums also have the least maintained drainage system, which is why once affected by flood
or having experienced a continuous rainfall, water-logging and other severe problems arise.
There are major limitations in accessing the utility services of the slums. Even though water
supply has experienced an ameliorating condition, there is not enough hygiene safety for
such a big cluster of population.
All these problems become whole under one concept and in fact even bigger while seen from
a broader lens. Having the whole family migrated, the main income earner of the family have
to struggle his or her way to attaining marginal stability.
By no means, it is easy. For the family is not only coming across the constant battle of
readjustments of lifestyle, they also have to struggle in getting used to their new jobs. Earlier
if a person was a farmer or was engaged in the informal sector, this time after the evacuation,
he has to move to a completely new job like rickshaw pulling or getting involved in the
construction services. Migrants also take a great deal of effort to overcome the emotional
trauma of having all their assets devastated. Some lose their family members while running
away to the cities to save themselves. These grieves entail till the end of time and also
bounds as one of the major post-migration problems.

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1.4 Context and Rationale
According to The World Bank, Bangladesh is listed in the top most vulnerable countries for
climate induced hazards like flood, cyclone and storm surges (Khan, 2013).The four slums
that were selected for this study were chosen on the basis of few crucial characteristics. The
slums are Bosila, Korail, Badda and Agargaon. These slums do not only accommodate the
already residing poor inhabitants of Dhaka, but are also an attraction for climate refugees
because of the availability and access to various important resources. They include ease in
employment opportunities for men and women both, already migrated refugees have
communities built up and several other reasons.
1.5 Hypothesis

Following hypothesis will be tested in this study:
Those who live in slums in Dhaka City, they are permanently or temporarily settled there for
various reasons. A large percentage of them are voluntary or forced migrants from other
regions of the country. Quite a few of them are “climate refugees”. We hypothesize that the
climate induced migrants to Dhaka City slums are not immune to miseries from further
climate related problems. They are prone to many socio-economic & health related problems
due to environmental change. The nature and magnitude of their sufferings may be different,
but flood, rain, temperature change – all of those make their slum lives far from being
immune to climate-related problems.

1.6 Aim

The aim of the study is to identify the livelihood problems that the migrants, a significant
percentage of which are climate-induced migrants, face after coming to Dhaka City slums,
and how their problems are intensified due to climate change.

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1.7 Objectives
Following are our objectives:

1. To study four big slums of Dhaka to get a picture of the post-migration livelihood
patterns.
2. To investigate the reasons for migration from climate change perspective.
3. To depict the social, economic, and environmental problems being faced after shifting
to these places.
4. To find out about their coping mechanisms in order to combat the challenges.

1.8 Significance of the Study

This study will essentially give a big picture of the currently existing condition of climate
refugees and others in Dhaka City slums. The research will not only provide a holistic view
of factors motivating the migration but also provide underlying circumstances that the
migrants experience in day-to-day life basis. The study will essentially develop into a
mechanized report focusing on the social and economic livelihood struggles that hinder the
smooth living after migration. It will also highlight the climatic hurdles faced by the people
that lay as environmental impacts on the city slums. It will identify the crucial problems and
propose feasible recommendations as identified problems can be of major help to understand
the real causes.
The study will hopefully encourage government bodies, NGOs, donor agencies, and other
stakeholders to see the real scenario of the environmental refugees. The outcome of the
report may have been identified by some non-governmental bodies too, who actively
function in the amelioration of social status of climate migrants. As such, they may adopt
specific actions to help these people overcome the constant battle of struggling livelihood.
The suggested recommendations in this study may help the policy makers identify, scrutinize
and formulate case-specific policies against each of the issues to bring about better social and
economic conditions for the poor.

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Chapter 2
Literature Review

2.1 Climate Change

2.1 What is Climate Change?
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) explicitly proclaims that human-induced
climate change is unequivocal and evident (Rogner et al., 2007)

According to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, climate change is
defined as: ‘‘a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity
that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural
climate variability observed over comparable time periods’’(Field et al., 2014).

It is a long shift in the weather statistics and it is inclusive of all averages. It may include the
expected average temperature and precipitation values for a given time and venue, from one
decade to the next (NOAA National Weather Service, 2007).

2.1.1 Why does climate change occur?
Causes of climate change are wide-ranging. Climate change occurs because of the fact that
large quantity of greenhouse gas is radiated out in the atmosphere due to different activities.
Some of these activities are mainly human-induced and lay a severe impact on the health of
the environment. While some of the solar energy that reaches Earth is absorbed into the
atmosphere, there are only some portions of it that leaves the Earth. It is the greenhouse gases
that causes prevention of the solar energy from going back to space and remain inside the
atmosphere (Saha, Ali, Jonsson & Haque, 2014).

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2.1.2 Climate Change: Worldwide
According to a statistical study of the observed impacts of changing climate, it has been seen
that the last decade has been the warmest. This record also shows that over the last hundred
years, surface temperature of the world has gone up by 1.3ºF. Also, the rate of warming of
the world over the last hundred years has been double of that of the last fifty years (EPA,
2010).
Among the many reasons why climate is changing every day, one of the major actors playing
an important role in the irreparable change is humans. In fact, as of today’s date, human
beings doing harm to the environment leads as the main cause to climatic problems.
Excessive burning of fossil fuels releases harmful greenhouse gases to the environment.
These gases trap heat in the atmosphere, which was on its way out to space. This causes the
global temperature of the world to increase at a significant level.

There are changes in the way that land is being used. Trees that are being cut down as a result
of rapid industrialization and act of deforestation, the amount of the potent greenhouse gas
called carbon dioxide is increasing. These trees which were to absorb all this carbon dioxide
produced in uncountable amount, are no longer absorbed and hence remain suspended in
nature. Agricultural production leaves a huge impact on climate change too as farm animals
release methane and factory made fertilizers release nitrous oxides- both of which are
harmful greenhouse gases. All these come as a consummating result of human actions
(Scied.ucar.edu, 2015).
2.1.3 Observed Impacts in the Complex and Changing World
Among the many changes that have taken place in the changing world today, in the recent
decades climate change impacts have had its effect on both natural and human systems. This
has occurred and laid its impacts in almost all the continents across the world and across the
oceans. The changing precipitation, melting snow and ice are altering the hydrological
systems. This is largely affecting the water resources in terms of the quality and quantity and
it is seen quite evidently. Due to climate change, glaciers are continuing to shrink and are
happening almost worldwide. This is affecting runoff and water resources downstream. It is

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also so impactful that permafrost is warming and thawing in latitude regions and in highelevation regions. Moreover, a major change in the movement of the aquatic animals.
Terrestrials, freshwater and marine species have shifted their geographical locations, ranges,
seasonal activities and also the migration patterns. Some statistics show that in response to
climate change their abundance has changed along with species interaction. The negative
changes in climate change have also been apparent on crop yields. Climate change has
negatively impacted on wheat and maize yields for many regions. The worldwide burden of
human ill-health from climate change is relatively small compared with effects of other
stressors and is not well-quantified. (Saha, Ali, Jonsson & Haque, 2014).

2.1.4 Climate Change Impact on Bangladesh
Bangladesh is a small country that is based on a low-lying delta, formed by the dense
network of mighty Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna and their distributaries. The
total land area is 147,570 sq. km. It has a network of more than 230 major rivers and their
tributaries crisscross the country. Bangladesh has a population of about 160 million and
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of US$ 67.7 billion per annum. Cyclones in Bangladesh are
responsible for 60% of the deaths in the world (Sdwebx.worldbank.org, 2015).
From meteorological point of view, the climate of Bangladesh can be classified according to
the following seasons: dry and cold winter, which is from December to February; Pre
monsoon, which is from March to May; Monsoon, which is from June to September and
Monsoon that lasts a span from October through November. The hottest season of the year is
pre-monsoon. Some extent of rainfall is seen during this period and it is accompanied by
Norwester, hailstorm and often with the recurrence of tornadoes (Choudhury, n.d.).

Myriad anticipated adverse consequences of climate change including sea level rise,
unmanageable deluge, fluctuating temperature or precipitation patterns and increase in
cyclone intensity has aggravated the existing stresses in Bangladesh. This impedes the
development in both the rural and urban sectors and lays a detrimental impact to its socioeconomic structure, environment, national growth and most importantly- the people of
Bangladesh.

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Although the climatic system of Bangladesh is cardinally determined by temperature,
rainfall, wind pattern and solar radiation, frequency and extent of feeling the impact varies
from occasions to occasions. Massive flood disrupting endless communities have devastated
livelihood patterns of myriad amount of people. Historically it can be seen that these climate
victims get affected by yet another climatic incident before fully recovering from a certain
disaster (Rashid, 2013).
2.1.5 Climate Change Impact on Dhaka
With the growing population in Dhaka City, the use of more motor vehicles is increasing, so
is electricity consumption. Dhaka is also subjective to flooding from rivers that bound it
along with the rainfall that causes runoff. This runoff is more than what the city’s drainage
capacity is (Alam & Rabbani, 2007).
Mainly, the capital is at a threat of elevating temperature because there is massive amount of
vehicles that are on the city streets. All these vehicles emit volume of emissions that are very
harmful for the environment. Also, the city has in place hundreds of industries which are
both publicly and privately owned. The industrial activities also add to the harmful impacts
of climate change because they not only give out excessive amount of debilitating gases to
the environment, but also incorporate massive use of energy. Flood and congestion due to
drain blockage are predicted to be the most daunting ways the capital could get affected. 2-13
meters of elevation above the sea level may lead to a major part of the city getting inundated
in the near future (Monsur, 2011). Hence climate change does pose a very big threat to the
future of the capital of Bangladesh.

2.1.6 Climate Change and Dhaka Slums
Despite trying for a long time, not only the existing residents of the slums, climate migrants
and other people in the slums have been constantly failing to secure a descent livelihood in
the city. They are not only in a state of vulnerability to social and physical capital, but
environmental constraints also push them to an unstable form of livelihood.

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Safety of the slum inhabitants is at risk because factors like temperature, rainfall, and
humidity affect the incidence of water borne diseases. In such cases various parasites like
bacteria and other vectors get accessibility to breed faster as they can live longer in
conditions that are warmer and wetter. The slum conditions after such incidents become
suitable to best fit the breeding conditions of the parasites (Aßheuer, Thiele-Eich & Braun,
2013).

2.2 Migration
2.2.1 Ways Climate Change affects Migration
Not only Bangladesh, a number of other countries are facing similar climate related
problems. The extents of the problems are different in different countries. For example,
“About 85 per cent of the Maldives’ main island, which contains the capital Male, would be
swamped. Most of the Maldives would be turned into sandbars, forcing 300,000 people to
flee to India or Sri Lanka. Vietnam could lose 500,000 hectares of land in the Red River
Delta and another 2 million hectares in the Mekong Delta, displacing roughly 10 million
people. In West Africa, up to 70 per cent of the Nigerian coast would be inundated by a onemeter rise, affecting more than 2.7 million hectares and pushing some beaches three
kilometers inland. Gambia’s capital, Banjul, would be entirely submerged. In the
Mediterranean, Egypt would lose at least 2 million hectares of land in the fertile Nile Delta,
displacing 8–10 million people, including nearly the entire population of Alexandria. The
demise of this historic city would cost the country over $32 billion, close to a third of its
annual gross national product (GNP) in 1999. South American cities would suffer some of
the worst economic effects. In Guyana 600,000 people would be displaced 80 per cent of the
population. The cost would be $4 billion, or 1,000 per cent of Guyana’s tiny GNP’’
(Shamsuddoha & Chowdhury, 2009).

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The main ways that climate change affects migration are:
(i)

The overall warming of the global environment has an impact on the agricultural
sector, which undermines the healthy augmentation of ‘ecosystem services’.

(ii)

There is an onset of climate events like deluge and heavy rainfall in most of the
tropical regions that proves calamitous to the whole community residing there.

(iii)

The deadliest consequence is the sea level rise that destroys immeasurable assets and
inundates home to million people, forcing them for a massive evacuation
(Shamsuddoha, & Chowdhury, 2009).

One of the largest challenges faced by the migrants is the change in profession. While in the
village, the people might have been involved into agricultural sector or was a fisherman.
However, after the migration in the city, they are forced to work in professions that they have
never had experiences in before. For instance, a fisherman’s profession changes into that of a
construction helper in the city. It takes immense pressure and patience for someone who has
been engaged with a certain kind of work in the rural sector to drastically change profession
in a completely new area. But they are compelled to do so because after the migration, they
have the burden of the whole family to be taken care of. If that is not sufficient, finding an
employment in the first place also becomes challenging. It is also seen that the new migrants
who were boatmen before are now forced to pull the three-wheeler cart called rickshaw in the
city. They do it without any prior skill or knowledge on traffic management. They are also
involved in informal nature workings and deprived from entitlements of fundamental rights.
The seasonal migrants also have to send remittance, a majority of which is mostly used for
daily expenditure. These regular expenses include money for education for the children,
health, loan payments, investments and so much more (Rashid, 2013).
Most of them live in cheap rental houses or slums; even on footpaths where they have serious
problems regarding water supply, sewerage, sanitation, electricity, and other basic utilities. It
also creates social relation problems because some married migrants are compelled to move
to the city for supporting their families in the village. Some gradually cut their ties with their
families staying in the village. The absence of migrants has negative impact on the wellbeing and security of the family that is left behind in the village.

21
2.2.2 Situation of Migrants after Migration:
Currently approximately four million people, about ten thousand people per square
kilometer, are living in Dhaka City which was originally designed to accommodate just one
million people during the 1960s. The climate affected migrants move to Dhaka City with an
aspiration of a better life.
Scopes of employment in garments factory, communication system, and social networking
facilities are better in Dhaka than any other city in Bangladesh. Access to facilities and
greater amenities, like higher education and better medical care are act as pull factors to
come to Dhaka (Rashid, 2013).
2.2.3 Status of the urban poor people in Dhaka slums
Slums and squatter surroundings are densely populated areas with three or more adult people
in each room and the houses’ infrastructure is extremely poor and weakly built. They are
either mud-homes, semi- concrete or ram shackled building and are either rented or owner
occupied. The inside scenario is much unfortunate because along with having no livelihood
facilities many other important accessibility structures are missing,
2.2.4 Migration as Livelihood Adaptation Strategy
In the light of environmental change and climate impact, mobility can be the outcome of
immediate stress resulting from natural disasters. But it can also be an income-diversification
strategy undertaken in anticipation of or in response to environmental shocks, as well as to
cope with a long-term decline in livelihood. Communities, whose livelihoods are closer to
the agricultural or naturally based resources, are closely tied to poverty related shocks right
after climate change impacts (Gioli, Khan, Bisht & Scheffran, 2014).
Migration is a way of managing the risk associated with vulnerability. And for people who
are suddenly displaced off their lands, it takes huge pressure while small time to be decisive
of the best policy to lead a safe life in the future. The decisive casual linkages with migration
are therefore difficult to identify. What is seen in majority of the cases is that the rural areas
have a dearth of adaptation, mitigation and preparedness measures to support a sustainable
livelihood of the people. (Walsham, 2010).

22
2.2.5. Conceptual Framework

Climate Change

Natural Hazards

Effects on River side
inhabitants
(River erosion & loss of
habitat)

Effects on Coastal inhabitants
(Loss of habitat & sea level rise)

Takes shelter in nearby embankment, dam or
migrates to urban area

Small portion remains in
the disaster prone area

Large portion moves to a
big city
Big city

Slumdwellers

Squatting in mid-developed
area

Squatting in developed
area

Poor living from
Informal sector
occupation
 Suffers from Tenure insecurity, job scarcity, floods, water logging
 Diseases occur due to unsafe drinking water, inadequate sanitation.

Figure2.1: A conceptual framework for climate change impact on the lives of poor migrants

23
2.3 Climatic Conditions
2.3.1 Temperature and Rainfall
Climate change has brought about erratic rainfall patterns in different corners of the world.
And this change is ought to bring about changes not only in the economic aspect, but also
social and environmental well-being. Over the last ten years, the amount of irregular rainfall
has increased rapidly in Dhaka city. This has been shown in both regional climate model and
as well as observed data present (Murshed, Islam & Khan, 2011).The amount and frequency
of rainfall has increased. Rainfall causes various kind of other problem, especially in the
slums and squatter surroundings where the facility of well-maintained drainage is not there.
In places like Bashundhara, which are newly developed model towns in Dhaka; one onset of
rainfall brings about absolute inundation of the whole place. For a rapidly growing urban
area, this is a big problem.
“The Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC (2007) has observed that the 100-year linear trend
(1906-2005) of global average surface temperature is 0.74 (0.56 to 0.92) degree Celsius and
is larger than the corresponding trend of 0.6 (0.4 to 0.8) degree Celsius (1901-2000). The
report also states from 1900 to 2005, precipitation has found to either increase or decrease in
different parts of the world and globally, the area affected by drought might have increased
since the 1970s” (Basak, Titumir & Dey, 2013).
It is predicted that heavy rainfall will become more common in the near future. This problem
will create problem on occupations and activities that are directly related to the climatic
condition of the country. An important occupation in the country is agricultural occupation.
But this kind of hurdles will bring about large damage as far as the farm incomes are
concerned. There is chance of increased amount of soil erosion and the farmers will not be
able to cultivate the land properly. It may also bring about problems like contamination of
water supply and rise of various other water borne diseases (Pender, 2008).

24
2.3.2 Cyclones
Twenty six major cyclones have hit the country since 1970; among them eighteen have
occurred in the last twenty years (Siddiqui, 2011). Hence a severe ominous sign is already
being seen as this is a harbinger to a worse climatic situation in the coming future. The data
that has been acquired over the years have constantly been signaling that situation is
worsening with every passing day and serious concern should be diverted to rapidly changing
climatic problems. Factors that are ascribable to such changes need to be seriously monitored
and studied so that the future can be saved from deadly consequences.
Two devastating cyclones hit Bangladesh recently and these two cyclones had the strongest
intensities. One of the cyclone Sidr that took place in the year of 2007 and the other one
being cyclone Aila in 2009. They happened in two-year time span, which caused massive
damages in the coastal areas.
Cyclone Sidr, 2007
Cyclone Sidr is one of the biggest cyclones that have ever been faced by the people of
Bangladesh. One of the causes of the cyclone is the country’s severe susceptibility to
frequent hydro-meteorological hazard. It stands to be further aggravated due to the different
aspects of climate change seen today. Cyclone Sidr had hit the south-west part of the
country’s coastal side on 15 November 2007. The intensity of the cyclone was one of the
strongest recorded seen so far. It had a wind speed of up to 240 kmph. The high winds and
floods had resulted in massive damage to a large number of houses, roads, bridges and other
infrastructural establishments. Repair to these damages was difficult and funds from different
organizations could barely make up for the radical damage that it caused (ReliefWeb, 2008).
Maximum damage occurred to 6 different districts of the Barisal division as 40 upzilas were
affected. The number of families that had been affected and the amount of missing people
was maximum recorded in this district. According to the report, a total of 7,613,612 people
were affected by the cyclone (Ministry of Food and Disaster Management, 2007). A lot of
the affected people were helpless and compelled to go for a forced migration to a safer
region. However, the country was affected by yet another big cyclone just in two-year time.

25
Cyclone Aila, 2009
Cyclone Aila hit the South-Western side of the country on 25 May, 2009. The cyclone took
shape as a sign to colossal destruction on 23 May and then finally hit the coastal region of
Bangladesh on 25 May, 2009. It severely damaged the Shatkhira and Khulna districts of the
country and took lives of about 325 people. Needless to say it destroyed almost everything
that it passed next to. The entire incident of cyclone and its damages occurred within a very
short period of time (Kumar, Baten, Masud, Osman & Rahman, 2010).
After cyclone Aila of 2009, migration from the areas that had been affected has multiplied.
Statistics mentions that it is about 100,000 people who have migrated from areas like Koyra,
Dakope, Paikgacha, and Batiaghata (Siddiqui, 2011).

2.3.3 Flood
The intensity of the flood varies from year to year. It varies according to different factors that
maneuver the intensities of flood. Among them, the level of precipitation plays an important
role. According to IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (2007) heavy precipitation events will
augment the risk of flood (Rahman, 2014).

Historical data of the flood that has previously affected Bangladesh shows that a quarter of
the country’s land that’s affected by flood leaves massive destruction. The frequency of the
flood and its effect has intensified over the last 25 years (Siddiqui, 2011). Due to this kind of
massive devastation, a large group of people are forced to be displaced temporarily. Waterlogging after the flood takes place is a common problem and majority of the flood affected
victims have to face this problem.
Flood affects both the urban and rural areas in separate and detrimental ways. In the rural
areas, the people mostly rely on the agricultural sectors for their livelihood. A sudden
outbreak of such deluge destroys huge areas of paddy fields and other harvesting land much
defectively. Strong currents not only destroy the houses, roads and other structures but most
importantly take away thousands of lives of the village residents. For several months after the
calamity, these impoverished victims suffer endlessly. They look forward to relief from the

26
government, rehabilitation for the destroyed homes and employment opportunity to support
their families. It also takes them immense strength to recover from the traumatic mental
shock after having experienced such a colossal damage.
In the urban side, the scenario is much more complicated and adverse if not any less. Dhaka
is a rapidly growing megacity with numerous locations that are very much prone to natural
disasters. It’s not only overpopulated but lays high pressure on any remaining land that is
there. People living in fragile and flimsy slums and squatter surroundings in the city watch
their homes getting destroyed by flood. As such they are forced to move somewhere else like
roadsides or road embankments.
In these conditions it becomes extremely difficult for the families to move with their
remaining assets to seek out alternative and ad-hoc accommodation. Once water inundates
the whole area, a lot of other related problems start arising. The flood affected victims starve
in order to keep enough food to run the whole family for some more time. Presence of
stagnant water gives rise to the risk of outbreak of various diseases. (Ryan, 2011).
Severe floods have been repeated in 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2007(Rahman, Islam, Ahmed &
Georgi, 2012).

2.4 An Overall Effect on Socio-Economic and Environmental Sectors
The number of Dhaka City slums has increased over time, but based on various alum studies
we find that the socio-economic conditions inside the slums have not improved significantly.
Migration is an option for many people to get settled away from their native disaster-prone
homelands. As such the climate induced displacement is causing a large number of people to
migrate to the city slums. This has become a major area of concern now.
Access to food is threatened by climate change and they become even more socioeconomically susceptible. They are in a constant search for a better life and a healthier living
standard. Availability of the proper forms of all these becomes very expensive. Also,
growing number of people in the urban slums creates an extraneous onus on the existing

27
challenges to the government development activities and hence the slum development
strategies and poverty reduction strategies are getting harder to achieve.
2.4.1 An Evaluation of Food Safety and Security
Bangladesh has done considerably well in food production in recent years. However,
individual access to food availability is limited to one’s affordability. From macro
perspective, there are many other things that needed to be taken into consideration when food
security is addressed. “Availability of ground water is crucial for agricultural farming and
irrigation. Delayed monsoons and less and or an uneven distribution of rainfall under the
impact of climate change have aggravated water availability and increased water scarcity
apparently that has contributed significantly to crop productivity in Bangladesh” (Alam,
2015). Food shortage at home accelerates the decisions by many to migrate to city slum
areas.
However, there is not enough food available to supply to the slum dwellers particularly
during climate hazards. There is also a void of clean eating practice in the slum and is seen as
an outcome by the various diseases that occur because of it. Children are not taught to
properly clean their hands right after eating or before. And this causes a lot of vector borne
diseases to spread out within the place. They get affected by the diseases but don’t
necessarily find a possible solution to cure it. So there are clearly inadequate hygiene
practices among children and adults within this cluster. In addition to that, there is
insufficient ventilation in the cooking area which causes major health impacts to be apparent
in the society.
2.4.2 Human Health and Livelihood
Even after coming and residing in slums the health issue becomes a major problem in regular
livelihood of the people. After the migration the migrants have to get accustomed to a new
way of living and hence combat the different health attacks they are most possibly prone to.
This is especially an issue of concern because there is a lack of hygienic living condition in
the slums, which attracts a lot of vectors to breed. The stagnant water in many cases due to
lack of proper drainage system makes the place a good breeding ground for insects to grow
and develop. These in turn travel from the ruins to even lay eggs in food particles which are

28
ingested by people in the slums, including young children and pregnant women. And all the
cycle leads to detrimental effect on the health of these people, which too becomes another
start of a new problem. Once affected by the disease, these people rarely have enough
monetary support to find themselves proper health benefits. Hence, they lack the availability
to get the medical support that they much admittedly deserve.
2.4.3 Water and Sanitation
Water is an important component for living. Unavailability to safe and clean water may not
only hinder the regular livelihood capacities to a healthy life but it may also bring about
damaging impacts to the community. In the slums of Dhaka, the accessibility to safe and pure
water is competitive and highly demanding. It is a matter of sheer luck to avail oneself to
pure and clean form of water.
Sanitation is another major issue that is of major concern in the city slums. Generally wastes
are disposed wherever possible. Starting from roads, side pathways to above the water body,
there is no law for this and hence people are least bothered about the safety issues. It is also
due to the fact that these people are not educated enough to know that improper sanitation
may bring about a lot of undesirable impact to the society.
2.4.4 Trade and Commerce
The slums that were selected for this study are situated in the hub of the city. Climate
migrants choose to reside in the slums that are located in such a cosmopolitan zone for the
sole purpose of finding themselves employment opportunities.
People who came from the villages were either engaged in the agricultural sectors or they
were involved with fishing. But a major occupational change occurs right when they come to
the city sides because those opportunities are no longer available to them. They now see
themselves in the construction services and other forms of city-based work opportunities.
Most of the time, men are seen to drive rickshaws while the women are seen to work for the
houses which are there around the slums.

29
2.4.5 Adaptation Capacity and Coping Mechanisms
In order to combat the climate change impact to reduce vulnerability, the society of climate
vulnerable community adopts multiple possible strategies. These strategies mainly fall under
the two broad forms of responses, them being adaptive capacity and coping mechanism. The
short term responses to any crisis can be categorized as coping mechanism. These include the
real and spontaneous responses to crisis in the face of unwelcomed situations. It is not
possible to clearly draw a line between adaptation capacity and coping mechanism as coping
mechanism may develop into adaptive strategies.

30
Chapter 3
Methodology
3.1 Introduction
The inception of the research began with an intensive overview of why climate change is
affecting Bangladesh. The question filtered through several underlying chapters
concentrating on which sector of the community gets more affected along with which part of
the country too. It was more streamlined to fetch information about the target community
who are forced to get displaced from their homelands and hence, climate migrants were
chosen as the target group of the study. As per the aforementioned research and the results
following, a hypothesis was formulated questioning about the current status of the climate
migrants and researching on the fact that despite of the mass movement from their homelands
to an ‘apparently safer’ zone, they are still affected by various social, economic and most
importantly environmental factors. For the following purpose, the research design was
established according to the following work-breakdown categorization:
a. Primary data analysis – Field research and study via survey
b. Secondary data analysis – Literature review
i.

Field study and research by others

ii.

Review on the climatic factors affecting Bangladesh

iii.

History and statistics of previous climatic events

c. Designing the research area and developing the hypothesis
d. Developing a holistic questionnaire demonstrating questions towards hypothesis
e. Data analysis
f. Findings
g. Recommendations
h. Conclusions

31
This study does an in-depth literature review of the past in general and in relation to climate
change variability to find out the potential climate related migration (long/short term,
seasonal, internal/ international; explicitly incorporating different non-climatic push and pull
drivers) and its focus mainly on the following fields: Route of migration: The origin and
destination of climate induced migrants. Poverty, vulnerability and risk: Survey on different
socio-economic, age and gender groups. Climatic data: Temperature, rainfall and flood data,
as well as newly available satellite imagery and remote sensing data.
The research is a compendium of various analyses, merged from desktop research to field
investigations, carrying out surveys based on specific questions targeted at the migrants.
Primarily, the research started via thorough and rigorous literature review of journal articles,
published papers on similar work done earlier and researching through various books and
relevant documents. Once the study delineated itself to a streamlined area of focus, a
systematic and holistic set of questionnaire was built up, which delved to seek answers to the
supposed or proposed hypothesis.
Once the data was collected they were analyzed under different components, which included
areas of social, economic and environmental categories. All these information was carefully
handled and analyzed to search for the real scenario. It was a constant search to find out the
true picture; just not to simply prove the hypothesis correct. The whole research was carried
out intensively to identify the livelihood problems that the migrants, which include a
significant percentage of climate-induced migrants, face after coming to Dhaka slums and
how their problems are intensified due to climate change.
The compilation of all these deep-delving investigations gave rise to a methodical output in
the form of this paper. All the achieved data was systematically arranged to produce an
immaculate piece of work to serve the true purpose of the paper.

32
3.2 Areas of Research
This research is an intensive study to analyze livelihood hurdles encountered by climate
refugees once they have migrated to the city. A thorough survey provides the best possible
answers to case-specific questions, answers to which prove worthy of being amalgamated for
further inspection, till a logical inference is made. The inference later justifies if the proposed
hypothesis was met in accordance.

The research begins with a basic understanding of climate change as a whole. Causes,
impacts and symptoms are given a cursory synopsis. After a chronological outlook on the
preceding circumstances, climate change status in the context of Bangladesh is overviewed.
Different climatic hazards that mercilessly disrupt the lives of hundreds and thousands of
people are then seen. Events like cyclone, flood and erosion cause hundreds of people to get
displaced from their own lands.

Following this the other key area of the research is viewed, which is migration. The patterns
and causes of migration are observed, along with migration as an adaptation for many people,
who are the essential victims. The primary area of this study is then reviewed, which is
climate change and migration in Dhaka City, where four spots in the city are chosen as sites
to interview climate migrants. The chief intention is to get the real picture of the research’s
main theme. As such a set of questionnaire, pre-produced, was used to grasp answers
shooting the underlying question of the research.

The study trekked through several dimensions of the associated factors that affect livelihood
of climate refugees in Dhaka. Various lights of the livelihood factors were taken into
consideration such as the condition of proper hygiene and sanitation measures, the associated
health impacts and many other allied conditions. The respondents tried to come up with the
closest answers to truth, which made the research very transparent. The respondents were
selected by avoiding any form of biasness.

33
With ice-breaking sessions of knowing the correspondents a little further, basic questions
about the reason of migration and current status were asked. The research also delved to seek
answers to certain questions, ones including if the climate victims really knew what climate
change really is. It was explored if they could relate and attribute the changes in their lives to
the different changes in nature and how the weather pattern has been changing drastically
over the years. Areas related to water and sanitation, health and income were touched and the
data was analyzed by using SPSS, STATA and Excel software.

Major findings along with logical discussion then extend to the other half of the paper, after a
thorough summary of its methodology. Challenges and limitations being highlighted, the
paper also emerges with some attempts to suggest recommendations to ameliorate the
situation. Hence the paper evolves as it extends towards the end as a comprehensive study,
starting from pinpointing the problem, breaking it and then exploring it to its maximum
profundity.

3.3 The Survey
Four slums were targeted for this research. The questionnaire was prepared as a
comprehensive tool to bring out answers to the broader spectrum of socio-economic and
environmental factors impeding smooth livelihood of the migrants to the city.
The reasons for the migration were first targeted to be found, which included seeking for job
opportunities, flood occurrences causing them to forcefully move out of their previous home
and become environmentally displaced, people coming and dwelling in slums frothy had no
home or they intended to do small business. Some associated problems that entail with their
livelihoods were analyzed by asking relevant questions. The problems that are generally
encountered in these types of congested slums are lack of proper water and sanitation
facilities, health issues and constraints, flood problems when the rate of rainfall increases,
and also people’s hurdle in commuting. By asking appropriate questions, I gathered
information on these different aspects of the lives of slum dwellers.
Dhaka slums are clustered areas of human settlement, consisting of closely located blocks
where individual families reside. As such, the area seems almost cluttered in the form of

34
patched section of livelihood. This, therefore, entails the risk of being too bounded within
one community when survey analysis is carried out. In order to avoid this, attempt to keep
the data collection was made to keep as unbiased as possible. In order to do so, a variety of
approaches were taken while site visit. The most important of them was to be inclusive of not
a particular patch of slums clutter, rather trying to fetch information from atleast one member
of the household of an individual family of each block. As such, biasness in collecting data
from only a particular geographical area was, to a great extent, minimized. Other measures
including picking a range of visiting hours was allocated to make sure a wider range of
people could be surveyed. It was inclusive of being elective in peak and off peak hours of
maximum presence of people, within the zone of interest. Weekly analysis was split into
working and non-working hours, as observed attendance of respondents varied on weekdays
or during weekends. Additionally, the survey process in itself discarded gender biasness,
biasness towards taking information from just a particular working class or age group.
Hence, all these variety to endeavors prepared a much-reliable source of data collection with
minimal predisposition or preconceived inclination. Selection bias which could have
occurred during the identification of people in the study was therefore lessened. However,
the study population was clearly defined and its accessibility and reliability was first affirmed
but with the applicability of maximum random sampling of household data, proneness to
selection bias was lessened to a great extent in the study. I also cross-checked the data
obtained from one slum with another to see any significant differences or inconsistencies. I
believe that the data that I obtained are quite robust.

35
3.4 Site Overview
3.4.1 Korail
The Korail slum covers 90 acres with over 100,000 people living in it. Korail is considered
the largest slum in the city and is thought to have started during the late 80’s. It was situated
on empty elevated grounds while it gradually swelled by reaching the highly vulnerable
water edges. It is located near the commercial areas of Gulshan. This is why there is a good
opportunity of employment for low income people in jobs like cleaning, household helping,
pulling the three wheeled carts called Rikshaws and also ample amount of jobs for the
Ready-Made Garment sectors. The people live in quite an unhealthy environmental condition
if sanitation and safety is concerned. However, they are accustomed to the changes that
follow, be it climatic problems or social hindrances (Khan, 2010).
3.4.2 Bosila
The living condition here is quite unsuitable if considered for safety point of view. The water
under the settlement has tarnished black in color and is absolutely hazardous to be used for
any purpose at all. Employment opportunity for the slum dwellers is available to a good
extent since it sweeps across the commercial areas. The slum dwellers, especially the men,
get involved in informal sectors while the women get hired as cleaners or household workers
in various houses across that place in the residential areas (Khan, 2010).
3.4.3 Badda
The Badda slum covers a big portion of the area and is at a consolidated development stage.
There are mostly single storied houses with tins and ‘kutcha’ materials to build up the
houses. There is a high population density in the slum with some open spaces within the area
of the slum.
3.4.4 Agargaon
This is a highly dense slum with a population of about 10,000 people in 1,200 households.
People here live the under poverty line. The facilities are not sufficient to meet the standard
need of the living. Different types of crimes occur often. Parents cannot afford to send their
children to school. The environment is not favorable (Hoque, Sarker, Udoy and Khan, 2013).

36

Figure 3.1: Slums of Dhaka city (

indicates 4 slums from where data has been collected)

(Census and mapping of slums in Bangladesh, 2005).

37
3.5 Data Analysis
In this section, we analyze the data based on the information obtained via survey.
3.5.1 Summary Statistics
Table 3.1: Summary Statistics

Name of the Slums

All

Bosila

Korail

Badda

Agargaon

No. of Respondent

108

25

34

28

21

Job &
Business
Flood &
Homeless
Permanent
Resident

61.11 %

64%

76.47%

50%

47.61%

23.14%

16%

14.70%

21.42%

47.61%

4.62%

8%

0%

7.14%

4.76%

Others

12.96%

12%

14.70%

21.42%

0%

Fisher’s
exact test
1<5

P value: 0.051
25%

12%

8.82%

64.28%

14.28%

5 < 10

24.07%

28%

26.47%

17.85%

23.80%

10 < 15

31.48%

40%

47.05%

17.85%

14.28%

> 15

19.44%

20%

17.64%

0%

47.61%

Fisher’s
exact test
< 30

P value: 0.000
54.62%

52%

47.05%

75%

42.85%

30 < 35

17.59%

16%

20.58%

17.85%

14.28%

35 < 40

15.74%

20%

17.64%

7.14%

19.04%

> 40

12.03%

12%

14.70%

0%

23.80%

Fisher’s
exact test

P value: 0.234

Reasons for
coming and
staying in
Dhaka (%)

Years in
Dhaka (%)

Age (%)

38
Four slums were studied for this research while identifying the important reasons for coming
and staying in Dhaka city, number of years of residing in Dhaka, and the average age of the
inhabitants. While majority of the slum-dwellers had moved from their original point of
residence to the slums due to similar over-arching reasons, the survey showed several
differences as well. Majority of the slum dwellers had shifted to the slums for economic
purposes, in the way to finding a better form of livelihood. This is reflected in the Summary
Statistics table showing a marker of 61% of total respondents in all four slums choosing
better job and business opportunities to be a cardinal reason for their stay. It should be noted
that environmental victims may also have mentioned economic reasons as their motivation to
move to the city. Other similarity within the respondent group shows most survey-takers
being less than 30 years in age, which shows the presence of young working class surpass
ones who are older, in terms of (age) and number. However, the number of people being
surveyed being different in all four slums and as such, the number of years they lived within
the slum showed variation within the four slums. There were respondents who lived in the
slums for 1-5 years, 5-10 years and 10-15 years in all four slums. However, none of the
respondents lived for more than 15 years in Badda in contrast to Bosila, Korail and
Agargaon. While a certain percentage of people were permanent residents of the slums, none
of the respondents were lived in Korail permanently. This indicated a marked difference
about the state of residence-ship within the slums community.

a) Age:
Bosila: 52% of the respondents who were surveyed were below 30 years of age in Bosila
while 16% of them were between 30 and 35, 20% of them being between 35 and 40 and just
12% being above 40 years of age.
Korail: 47.05% of the people surveyed in the slum of Korail were below 30 years of age,
20% being between 30 and 35, 17.6% being between 35 and 40 years old and around 14.7%
being more than 40 years of age.
Badda: Out of the 28 people surveyed in Badda, 75% of the respondents were below the age
of 30 and 17.85% of the people were between 30 and 35. None of the people surveyed were
above 40 years of age

39
Agargaon: In Agargaon slum, 21 people were surveyed and among them around 43% of the
respondents were below the age of 30. Around 24% were above 40 and the percentage of
people between 30-35 and 35-40 were 14.28% and 19.04%.
As some of the expected frequencies in the contingency table are smaller than 5, we cannot
use Pearson Chi-square test in this case. Fisher’s exact test gives a p-value of 0.051
indicating a statistically significant relationship between the slums and the reasons for
settling there.
b) Reasons for Coming and Staying in Dhaka:
Bosila: 25 respondents were surveyed. 64% of the respondents said that the reason for them
to come and stay in Dhaka was to look for a better employment while 16% mentioned they
lost their previous home. While only 8% were permanent residents, there were others of
around 12% who had various miscellaneous reasons to stay in Dhaka
Korail: Out of the 34 respondents, none of them were permanent residents of the slum.
Around 76% mentioned that searching for a better job or business was a reason for them to
come and stay in Dhaka. 14.7% of them were homeless in their origins while another 14.7%
had other reasons to stay in Dhaka
Badda: 28 respondents were chosen to be surveyed, of which 14 mentioned they were in
Dhaka for better jobs and business. 21.42% had other reasons and another same percent of
respondents were flooded and homeless in their homelands.
Agargaon: 21 respondents were chosen to be surveyed. 47.61% of the people mentioned that
they were in Dhaka for better job and business placements while another same percent of
respondents mentioned they were flooded and homeless at their homelands.
As some of the expected frequencies in the contingency table are smaller than 5, we cannot
use Pearson Chi-square test. Fisher’s exact test gives a p-value of 0.000 indicating a
statistically significant relationship between the slums and the length of stay there.

40
We should note here that those who were flood victims and who were homeless due to
natural calamities or other reasons, they might also mention that they came to the city for job
or business. Therefore, the number of respondents in that category may be overstated, and the
number of respondents for climate-related cause understated.
c) Years in Dhaka
Bosila: Majority of the people living in this slum had been residing in Dhaka between 10 to
15 years. That counts to a percentage of 40.
Korail: Majority of the people living in this slum had been residing in Dhaka between 10 to
15 years. That counts to a percentage of 47.05 and only 8.82% of the people were living in
the slum for just 1 to 5 years.
Badda: 17.58% of people were living in this slum for 5-10 years and 10-15 years
respectively while a majority of 64.58% of the respondents was living in this slum for 1-5
years.
Agargaon: Almost half of the people were living in this slum for more than 15 years which
is a long time. Only 14.28% of the respondents were living for 1-5 years and 5-10 years
respectively.
Like the previous two cases, we cannot use Pearson Chi-square test in this case for smaller
than 5 expected frequencies in some cells of the contingency table. Fisher’s exact test gives a
p-value of 0.234 indicating a statistically insignificant relationship between the slums and the
age distribution.

41
3.5.2: Charts, bar graphs, tables
a) Rain Problem
Table 3.2: Rain Problem

Slum area

Problem during occasional rain

Korail

59%

Badda

46%

Agargaon

81%

Bosila

52%

Total

58%

Value
Pearson Chi-Square

5.889

Cramer’s V

.235

df

Asymptotic Significance
3

.117

42
Table 3.2 and the above graph show the percentage of the slums being affected by occasional
rainfall, not even monsoon rain. Agargaon slums have been found to experience the most
adverse of effects. It mounts the highest of 81% while Badda slum shows the minimum of
46%. The total comes out on a percentage of 58%. That means over half of the slums are
affected by even occasional rain. Pearson Chi-square value shows no significant difference in
four slums. Cramer’s V shows a moderate association between slums and problem due to
rain.
b) Difficulty during summer

Table 3.3: Problems due to high temperature

Slum area

High temperature related problems

Korail

88%

Badda

82%

Agargaon

95%

Bosila

80%

Total

86%

Value df

Asymptotic
Significance

Pearson Chi-

2.577

Square
Cramer’s V

.155

3

.462

43

Table 3.3 and the graph show the percentage of slums facing difficulty during summer
seasons. A striking percentage of 95% is seen to face hurdles due to high temperature in the
Agargaon slums. Korail, Badda and Bosila take percentages of 88, 82 and 80 respectively
when the difficulty due to high temperature is concerned. The total comes out on a
percentage of 86%. Pearson Chi-square value shows no significant difference in four slums.
Cramer’s V shows the relationship to be weak.
c) Water Sources
Table 3.4: Sources of water
Area

WASA

Korail

95%

Badda

67%

Agargaon

45%

Bosila

76%

Total

73%

44

Value

df

Asymptotic Significance

Pearson Chi-Square

19.240

3

.000

Cramer’s V

.426

The chart shows the percentage of water supplied by Water Supply and Sewerage Authority
(WASA) and Tubewell respectively. It is seen that Korail slum get the maximum supply of
water from WASA whereas Agargaon receives the least. Tubewells provide most of the
water supply in Agargaon slum. Pearson Chi-square value shows a significant difference in
four slums. Cramer’s V shows a very strong association between slums and water source.
d) Water Collection Problem
Table 3.5: Water collection problem during rain
Water Collection Problem during
Area

monsoon rain

No Problem

Korail

74%

26%

Badda

59%

41%

Agargaon 95%

5%

Bosila

56%

44%

Total

70%

30%

45

Value

df

Asymptotic Significance

Pearson Chi-Square

9.933

3

0.019

Cramer’s V

.306

The chart shows the statistics of water collection problem during heavy rainfall. It is
observed that Agargaon slums experience the maximum problem for collecting water during
rainfall. The least problem is experienced by slum dwellers in Bosila. And respondents were
also asked if there wasn’t any problem at all regardless of the scenario put forward. The bars
in red show how they have responded to it. Pearson Chi-square value shows a significant
difference in four slums. Cramer’s V shows that the association is strong.

46
e) Defecation Problem
Table 3.6: Defection Problem
Area

Defecation Problem faced during flood

Korail

94%

Badda

68%

Agargaon 100%
Bosila

88%

Total

88%

Value

df

Asymptotic Significance

Pearson Chi-Square

12.89

9

.167

Cramer’s V

.204

47
The chart shows the percentage of people facing defecation problem during flood. Agargaon
slum is the only slum where the problem spikes to 100 percent. More or less all the slums
face this particular problem because the percentage of people facing problem is 68% and
above. Pearson Chi-square value shows no significant difference in four slums. Cramer’s V
shows the relationship to be moderate.
f) Diseases problem
Table 3.7: Diseases problem

Area

Diseases Problem

Korail

76%

Badda

37%

Agargaon 81%
Bosila

80%

Total

69%

Value

df

Asymptotic Significance

Pearson Chi-Square

15.975

3

.001

Cramer’s V

.388

48

Table 3.7 shows the percentage of slum dwellers facing diseases. The maximum problem
related to diseases of different types is seen to occur in Agargaon slums and it takes a value
of 81%. The next slum is Bosila which faces problem taking a statistical value of 80%. The
slum that faces the least amount of problem is Badda, which is 37%. The graph shows
another piece of information. Respondents were asked if there was any problem at all
regardless of the scenario put forward. The bars in red show how they responded to it.
Pearson Chi-square value shows a significant difference in four slums. Cramer’s V shows
that occurrence of disease is dependent on which slum the respondent lives.
f) Impact of last flood on Income
Table 3.8: Impact of last flood on income
Slums

Lost
Job

Transportation
Problem

No Problem

Others

70%

Less
working
hour
7.5%

Bosila

10%

12.5%

0%

Korail

38%

6%

29%

12%

15%

Badda

60%

4%

8%

16%

12%

Agargoan

38%

22%

17%

6%

17%

Total

47%

10%

19%

14%

10%

49

The chart shows the impact on income due to flood. Reasons of lower income include loss of
job, absence from work or being late to work. It is observed that 57% of the respondents
either lost jobs or worked less hours. 19% of the respondents mentioned that they faced
problems going to work.
As some of the expected frequencies in the contingency table are smaller than 5, we cannot
use Chi-square test in this case. Fisher’s exact test gives a p-value of 0.119 indicating a
statistically insignificant relationship between the slums and the impact on income.
g) Climate change Perception
Table 3.9: Climate Change Perception

Area

Yes

Korail

79%

Badda

58%

Agargaon

55%

Bosila

84%

Total

70%

50

Value

df

Asymptotic Significance

Pearson Chi-Square

7.847

3

.049

Cramer’s V

.273

84% respondents have knowledge about climate change in Bosila. Korail and Badda came
out as second and third in terms of their knowledge about climate change. Data shows that
70% of the residents of these four slums had some idea about climate change, while the rest
had no idea. Pearson Chi-square value shows a significant difference in four slums. Cramer’s
V shows a moderate relationship between slums and the knowledge about climate change/

51
h) Sources of information about climate change
Table 3.10: Sources of information about climate change
Area
Korail
Badda
Agargaon
Bosila

TV
76%
31%
38%
41%

School
18%
31%
23%
36%

Newspaper
3%
6%
23%
0%

NGO
0%
6%
8%
4%

Radio
0%
0%
0%
19%

Other
3%
26%
8%
0%

Total

51%

26%

7%

3%

5%

8%

76% of the respondents in Korail slum learned about climate change from television, which
is the maximum of all. Respondents from Korail slum were not exposed to NGO or radio as a
source of information about climate change. TV and school are the two most important
sources of information for disseminating knowledge about climate change in all four slums.
As some of the expected frequencies in the contingency table are smaller than 5, we cannot
use Chi-square test in this case. Fisher’s exact test gives a p-value of 0.001 indicating a
statistically significant relationship between the respondent’s residence and the sources of
information.

52
g) How important is the issue of climate change?
Table 3.11: Importance of Climate Change

Area
Korail

Very important
68%

Quite important
32%

Not very important
0%

Not at all
important
0%

Badda

80%

20%

0%

0%

Agargaon

73%

18%

9%

0%

Bosila

50%

42%

4%

4%

Total

67%

31%

1%

1%

Respondents from Badda appeared to top others in terms of considering climate
change as a very important issue. Korail and Badda had no respondents
mentioning it is not important at all. In total among the four slums, 67% of the
people considered climate change as a highly important matter, 31% mention it is
quite important and 1% each thinks that is not very important or not important at
all.

53
Again, due to small number of expected frequencies in the contingency table, we
cannot use Chi-square test in this case. Fisher’s exact test gives a p-value of 0.361
indicating a statistically insignificant relationship between the respondent’s
residence and the perception about the importance of climate change.
h) How is climate change affecting you?
Table 3.12: Climate change effect

Area

Flood Health

Temperature

Homeless

Economically

Other

Korail

32%

14%

0%

8%

18%

28%

Badda

13%

26%

0%

4%

32%

25%

Agargaon

50%

0%

30%

10%

0%

10%

Bosila

13%

30%

4%

14%

17%

22%

25%

20%

5%

9%

18%

23%

Total

54
50% of the people in Agargaon slum were affected by flood, 30% were affected by changes
in temperature, and 10% were homeless. According to the respondents of Agargaon slum
there was no health or economic effects due to climate change. Varying trends were observed
in the other slums as per the data.
Fisher’s exact test gives a p-value of 0.01 indicating a statistically significant relationship
between the respondent’s residence and how they were affected by climate change.
i) Reasons for Climate Change: Natural/ Economic Development
Table 3.13: Reasons for Climate Change
Slums

Natural

Development

Both

Bosila

29%

19%

52%

Korail

32%

4%

64%

Badda

43%

21%

36%

Agargoan

0%

60%

40%

Total

29%

19%

52%

55
64% respondents of Korail believe that the reason for climate change is both natural and
development-related. In a stark contrast, 43% respondents from Badda blamed nature for
climate change, while none in Agargaon.
Fisher’s exact test gives a p-value of 0.006 indicating a statistically significant relationship
between the respondent’s residence and their perception about the cause of climate change.
3.5.3 Correlation Matrix
The correlation matrices are shown below. They are important to understand the nature and
magnitude of relationship between different factors. They could also be useful to identify any
possible multicollinearity problem in our regression models. We have reported only those
correlation coefficients that are higher than 0.5 and significant.
a) Korail (p-values are in parenthesis)
Table 3.14: Korail slum (Correlation Matrix)
Defrain
H-Temp
Sick
04/07
Job loss
Important
Nat/Dev

Disease

Important

.561
(.001)
.553
(.001)
-.504
(.002)
.534
(.003)
-.526
(.004)

-.650
(.000)

The strongest correlation coefficient (-0.65) that we see is between the respondents’
perception about the importance and the causes of climate change. Those who believe that
the cause is development or both natural and development, they are more likely to say that
climate change is important than those who believe that it’s all natural.

56
b) Bosila (p-values are in parenthesis):
Table 3.15: Bosila slum (Correlation Matrix)
Age
Hot

Reason

Stay

Hot

Defrain

Disease

Work
04/07

Climate
change

Important

-.609
(.001)

W-rain

.564
(.003)
.604
(.001)

Def-rain
Work
04/07
Job loss

.506
(.010)
-.567
(.003)

Climate
change
Important

.600
(.002)
-.669
(.001)
.690
(.000)

Victim
Nat/Dev

-.764
(.000)

-.662
(.001)

Govt

.581
(.006)

At Bosila, older people complained less about hot summer. Those who are knowledgeable
about climate change a larger fraction of them consider themselves victims of climate change
(correlation coefficient is 0.69). Those who believe that they are victims of climate change
consider this as an important issue (correlation coefficient is -0.764).
c) Badda (p-values are in parenthesis)
Table 3.16: Badda slum (Correlation Matrix)
Hot
W-04/07
Def-04/07
Climate
change
Govt

.514
(.009)

Wrain
.774
(.000)

Defrain

Def04/07

HTemp

Job
loss

-.507
(.016)
.533
(.005)
.690
(.019)

.564
(.029)

57
At Badda, those who had defecation problem during the last big flood believe that the
government is doing enough to prevent climate change. It could be because they might have
seen some improvement in conditions there since the big floods of 2004/07.
d) Agargaon (p-values are in parenthesis)
Table 3.17: Agargaon slum (Correlation Matrix)
Age
Stay

WRain

W04/07

Disease

Job
loss

Nat/ Dev

-1.000
(.000)

-1.000
(.000)

-.632
(.068)

.586
(.007)

W-04/07

1.000
(.000)

W-Hot

1.000
(.000)

Govt

At Agargaon, several variables show perfect correlation coefficients. Water collection during
rain, flood and hot summer seem to be problematic. Those who suffered from diseases or lost
jobs felt that the government was not doing enough to prevent climate change.
e) All (p-values are in parenthesis)
Table 3.18: All slums (Correlation Matrix)
Age

Stay

WRain

Important

.512
(.000)

W-04/07
Victim

.571
(.000)
-.569
(.000)

Overall, water collection problem in rain and during the last two floods were significantly
correlated (0.571). Those who were older had been living in the slums for longer time, which
makes sense. Those who are older have been living in the slums for longer time, which
makes sense. Those who perceive them as victims of climate change consider it to be an
important issue.

58
3.5.4 Regression Analysis
We intend to identify the effects of various climate-related factors on health and income of
the slum dwellers, of which a number of them are climate refugees, by controlling for other
relevant factors. Also, we want to understand their perception about climate change. Sample
size from each slum was not adequately large for regression analysis to be carried out for
individual slums. That is the reason why we pooled the data and used dummy variables for
the slums.
Model specification
Based on our data, a binary logistic regression model is appropriate for the data analysis. The
dependent variables of our 8 model specifications are all binary variables. Therefore, the
model is:

Prob(Yi = 1|Xi = xi) =

e (  0  1 xi )
,
1  e(  0  1 xi )

Where Y is a binary response variable and X is a set of explanatory variables. Green (2011)
has a good discussion on logistic regression
Following are the variables used in different specifications of our models as dependent or
independent variables:
Age= Age of the respondent.
Stay= Number of years the respondent is staying in a particular slum.
Rain= Problems during occasional rainfall.
Hot= Difficulty during hot summers.
Wrain= Drinking water collection problem during rain.
Water= Sources of drinking water.
Flood= Problem of flooding during times of heavy rainfall.
Defrain= Sanitation problem during rainy periods.
Disease: Whether or not the respondent or a family member suffered any climate or waterrelated illness.

59
Sick0407= Whether or not the respondent or a family member suffered illness because of
floods.
HTemp= Weather-related health problems.
Def0407= Defecation problem during 2004 & 2007 floods.
W0407= Drinking Water problem during 2004 & 2007 floods.
Work1 = Whether or not the respondent lost job or worked less hours.
Wher1= Sources of information about climate change – TV or others
Wher2= Sources of information about climate change – School or others
D_BO= Dummy variable for Bosila slum
D_KO= Dummy Variable for Korail Slum
D_BA= Dummy Variable for Badda slum
Agargaon, which is a relatively new slum with road access and other facilities that are not
available in other slums, is used as the reference category.
a) Health:
We will examine general health problems, sickness during 2004/07 floods, and weatherrelated health problems in different slums. Following independent variables are used in three
specifications of our model for health problems:

Health Problems = f (Age, Stay, Rain, Hot, Wrain, Defrain, Water, Def0407, W0407,
Location dummies)
The results are shown in the following table.

60

Table 3.19: Binary Logistic Regression of Disease, Sickness during 04/07 Floods, and
Weather-related Health Problems
Disease
B

Sick during 04/07 floods
S.E.

B

.102**(.012)

.040

-.044

.041

Rain

.140

.543

Hot

.557

Wrain
Defrain

Age

Weather-related health
problems

S.E.

S.E.

.062

.117*

.067

.067

-.146**(.028)

.066

.614

.720

-

-

.820

-.006

1.189

.764

1.039

.800

.594

-1.583*

.943

-

-

*(.069)

.329

-.055

.446

-

-

.444

.633

-.236

.809

-1.774(.143)

1.210

Def0407

-

-

.953

1.093

-

-

W0407

-

-

1.240

1.221

-

-

-.028

.886

-20.175

9297.584

.513

D_KO

-.436

.854

-20.362

9297.584

-18.122

8415.673

D_BA

-1.885**

.872

-22.275

9297.584

-20.429

8415.673

Constant

-.958

1.676

18.393

9297.584

19.974

8415.673

0.299/0.473

0.224/0.463

Stay

Water

D_BO

-.598

.168***

B

.161**

(.017)

11241.78
4

Pseudo R2
(Cox
&Snell/Nag

0.242/0.377

elkerke)

***, **, and * refer to level of significance at 1%, 5%, and 10% level respectively.

According to Model specification 1, age, defecation problem during rain, and the dummy
variable for Badda are statistically significant in explaining the variation in the occurrence of
diseases. Age has positive effect on disease, but the other two variables have negative effects.
It is somewhat surprising to see that defecation problem does not increase the probability of
disease.
Age, the length of stay in the slum, and water collection problem during rainfalls are
significant in explaining the variation in sickness during 2004/07 floods (Model specification
2).

61
Those who have been living in the slums for longer time became less sick. Water collection
problem also did not contribute to more sickness. Age and the length of stay in the slum are
significant factors for explaining weather-related health problems (Model specification 3).
b) Income:
We will examine the effect on income due to job loss or less working hours for flood or
climate-related problems in different slums. Following independent variables are used in two
specifications of our model:

Income = f (Age, Stay, Rain, Hot, Disease, HTemp, W0407, Def0407, Location
dummies)
The results are shown in Table 3.20
Table 3.20: Binary Logistic Regression of Job Loss/Less Working Hours
during 04/07 Floods, and Weather-related Job-Loss
Job loss / Working hour
loss during 04/07 flood
B

S.E.

Weather-related job loss
B

S.E.

Age

.002

.037

.015

.039

Stay

.012

.043

.030

.043

Rain

1.079**(.025)

.482

.914*(.065)

.494

Hot

-.025

.747

.086

.761

Disease

.433

.582

1.235**

.613

HTemp

.103

1.046

-.943

1.007

W0407

.543

.798

1.289(.113)

.813

Def0407

1.179(.180)

.879

.708

.847

.608

.763

-.694

.850

-.598

.672

D_BA

1.180(.206)

.932

-.399

.980

Constant

-2.552

1.920

-1.902

1.988

D_BO
D_KO

Pseudo R2
(Cox
&Snell/Nagel
kerke)

0.163/0.218

1.452*(.065)

.787

0.220/0.296

***, **, and * refer to level of significance at 1%, 5%, and 10% level respectively.

62
The first specification of the model shows that rain is the only significant factor in explaining
income loss (significant at 2.5% level). Defecation problem during big floods of 2004/07 and
residence at Badda slum are found to be significant at 18% and 20.6% respectively. Both
have negative effects on income.
Model specification 2 shows that rain, disease, and residence at Korail slum are significant at
less than 10% level of significance. Water collection problem during 2004/07 flood is
significant at 11.3% level. Except the residence at Korail, other three variables have negative
effect on income. Korail residents seem to be immune to weather-related income loss.
c) Climate Change Perception :
We will examine whether or not the slum dwellers know about climate change, whether or
not they consider themselves as victims of climate change, and whether or not they believe
that the government is doing enough to mitigate climate change effects. Following
independent variables are used in three specifications of our model:

Climate Change Perception= f (Age, Stay, Rain, Hot, Defrain, W0407, Disease, HTemp,
Sick0407, Work1, wher1, Wher2, Location dummies)
The results are shown in Table 3.21.

63
Table 3.21: Binary Logistic Regression of Slum Dwellers’ Knowledge about Climate Change
and Some of their Perceptions.
Variables in the Equation
Knowledge about
climate change
B

Victim

S.E.

B

Govt is doing enough

S.E.

B

S.E.

Age

.160

.210

1.706

557.343

-.082

.079

Stay

.193

.401

1.018

669.506

.143(.104)

.088

Rain

17.774

6321.424

.918

1.031

Hot

11.808

18566.580

.668

1.778

Defrain

-20.559

6744.079

-.160

.501

W0407

46.255

16351.676

.432

1.788

Disease

3.485

7941.552

-2.754***

1.059

HTemp

-16.305

26807.077

-.800

1.922

Sick0407

-51.586

29905.588

-.656

1.060

Work1

-36.277

17625.814

.694

.972

Wher1

-13.367

7112.941

-

-

Wher2

2.649

9549.967

-

-

D_BO

.134

11855.947

-34.113

11689.578

-.967

1.498

D_KO

-16.480

9302.047

-27.916

17042.528

.828

1.357

D_BA

1.045

12565.566

-4.777

15398.005

1.934

1.635

Constant

27.260

11709.909

79.224

33386.453

.056

2.884

Pseudo R2
(Cox
&Snell/Nag

0.660/0.499

0.222/1.000

0.310/0.484

elkerke)

***, **, and * refer to level of significance at 1%, 5%, and 10% level respectively.

The results show that none of the coefficients are significant in the first two specifications of
the model. The length of stay in the slum and disease are significant in the third specification
of the model. Those who have been living in slums for longer time believe that the
government is doing enough to reduce climate change effect. On the other hand, those who
have been suffering from diseases believe that the government is not doing enough.

64
Chapter 4
Limitations
One of the most crucial impacts of climate change is that mass body of climate victims are
compelled to migrate. Researches mainly navigated around the topics such as the causal
factors of migration, the route of migration and the subsequent impacts. However, very little
work was found on the livelihood patterns of the people after beginning their new lives in the
slums. Hence there is a major void in literature when it comes to find climate change impacts
on migrants. As a flowing reason to this not much information was available about the four
slums that were selected for this study. Hence not much data or information was found prior
to visiting the slums in person, when the real picture was seen.

To approach the slum dwellers in order to be questioned for the survey required time for
gaining their faith and attention. They doubted the purpose of the survey; many were
unwilling to answer sensitive questions while some were simply shy. Similar challenges were
faced in all four slums and it took a good understanding level to be reached before the
respondents were actually willing to answer all the questions in the survey.

The study could have given an even better picture of the current scenario of climate
vulnerable slum residents, had more slums were taken into consideration. Due to time
constraint and limited availability of resources, only four slums were surveyed, on the basis
of which a holistic estimation of the whole city’s scenario was assumed. However,
considering this limitation, the largest slums in the city was chosen to overcome such barrier.
Thus the results obtained are quite convincing. We also compared any significant differences
between slums.

65
Chapter 5
Recommendations
The research calls for government attention on critical health and livelihood issues that the
migrants and the slum dwellers in general encounter, while it strongly encourages
comprehensive efforts and work by various NGOs, INGOs, and other voluntary bodies that
are committed to help environmentally displaced migrants and others in need. It is clear that
climate change is an inevitable issue in their lives, hence defending their safety should be one
of the main objectives of those concerned. It would be helpful to ensure proper health and
safety of the already-residing migrants in Dhaka slums while building a robust habitat for any
potential migrant to the city.
Arranging education programmes is also essential for the climate affected victims prior to
their making any decision to move. Low cost rehabilitation and reconstruction of damaged or
lost properties with government assistance can also encourage people to stay back at their
original homeland. Sustainable and rapid actions after any natural calamity are very
important. This includes health-care teams to be sent with adequate relief funds which would
help the community. It can also encourage the affected people to start new life at the old
location, instead of moving to an entirely new place. Therefore, these people may not always
have to choose migration as the only option.
Nevertheless, we must note that a mass number of people have already migrated to Dhaka.
Therefore, slums have to be considered a part of the city, not just an illegally occupied area.
Once their rights are recognized, the government will be able to work on its deficiencies. The
government can then improve the water and sanitation system, clogged and unhygienic living
conditions, and other associated problems. It will only happen when slums are legally
considered an integral part of Dhaka. All of these call for government attention in order to
reduce the sufferings and ensuring their safety, security, and satisfaction of the slum dwellers
including the environmental refugees.

66
Chapter 6
Conclusions
Even though broad-based growth is important to achieve poverty reduction (Khandker,
1998), Bangladesh is still at its struggling phase. A country that experiences frequently
occurring natural disasters (Ali, 1996), rapid urbanization, and dense urban population add to
the existing environmental problems (Pryer, 2003) especially in Dhaka City. Climate change
impacts in the city become unmanageable, especially after onsets of heavy rainfall or flood
(Alam & Rabbani, 2007). Problems such as water-logging conditions, blocked sewage, lack
of sanitation facilities causing endless misery is inevitable and it is mostly seen in the
informal sectors (Rashid, 2000).
While climate change impacts are not any less severe in rural areas, people from vulnerable
communities move to the cities as act of mass evacuation or purposeful choices. This
research is an attempt to find out if these migrants have escaped the desolations of climate
change after migration. Indicators to measure health, economic and social status were used to
assess environmental and living conditions in the slums. As an overarching inference, the
research shows that migration to Dhaka City is not a solution for the climate affected people
in different regions of the country, it only adds to the existing problems that the slum
dwellers in the city are already facing. While poor migrants move towards the Capital City
with an expectation of safe livelihood, many studies have shown that poverty still trails
towards a path of ‘urbanization without development’ in Dhaka (Hossain, 2008).
While research also shows poor health conditions such as malnourishment are widespread
phenomena in Dhaka slums (Uzma, Underwood, Atkinson & Thackrah, 1999), this study
reinforces all such arguments. It’s still arguably interesting that even though fifty percent of
the slum population live below the poverty line (Pryer, Rogers & Rahman, 2003), the flow of
city-centric migration has not slowed down. A city where influential lobbying results in
better social and employment status of an individual (Open, 2000), this research shows how
fresh migrants struggle to make their place in the already-existing crowd. Hence health,
social, environmental and economic problems become worsened, if not ameliorated. As a
result, the incoming environmentally displaced refugees have only found themselves in

67
deeper crevasses of poverty and have not rescued themselves from the problems that climate
change brought in their lives.
It can be clearly understood that climate change impact is prevalent all across the country,
despite any rural-urban parting. This makes city-centric migration quite an ineffective tool to
be saved from climate hazards. However, as noted earlier, the nature and magnitude of
climate-related problems are different in their original homeland and the new location. This
research was carried out to test an initial hypothesis regarding the state of livelihood
conditions and the impacts of climate change on the migrants to Dhaka City. It was,
therefore, hypothesized that despite the migration, the environmentally displaced people are
not entirely rescued from the problems that they encountered earlier. The tests and the study
results of this research show that our hypothesis is true, and that climate affected migrants
face a myriad of social, economic, and health problems despite moving to Dhaka City.

68

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73

Appendix
Images

74

75
Questionnaire:
A. General Information:
ক সাধারণ তথ্য
১ উত্তরদাতার সংখ্যাSerial #
২ বস্তির নামName of the slum
৩ বয়সAge
৪ঢাকায় আসার কারণ : Reasons for coming to Dhaka City…………………………………

B. Settlement
1. How many years you have been living here?
১ কতদিন ধরে সেখারন আরেন?

…………………………………………………………………..
2. Does water enter into your slum during occasional rainfall?
২ োধােণ বৃদিে েময় দক আপনাে বাোয় পাদন স ারক?

a. Yes b. No
ক হ্াাঁ

খ না

3. What are the problems that you normally observe during monsoon rainfall?
৩ অদতদেক্ত বৃদিে েময় দক ধেরনে েমে্া হয়?

……………………………………………………………………
4. What are the problems that you faced in last flood?
৪ বন্াে েময় দক ধেরনে েমে্া হরয়দেল?

……………………………………………………………………
5. Have you ever faced any difficulty to live in your slum during summer time?
৫অদতদেক্ত গেরমে েময় রুরম থাকরত দক েমে্া হয়?

a. Yes b. No
ক হ্াাঁ

খ না

C. Water and Sanitation
গ পাদন এবং স ৌচাবস্থা?

1. What are the available sources of drinking water in your slum?
১ খাবাে পাদন সকাথা সথরক আরনন?
ক নলকূপ

76
খ কুয়া
গ পুকুে
ঘ দিদেদে/ ওয়াো সথরক
ঙঅন্ান্……………………

a. Tube well
b. Well
c. Pond
d. Supply water by DCC/WASA
e. Others……………………
2. Do you face any troublewhile collecting drinking water during monsoon rain?
২ অদতদেক্ত বৃদিে েময় পাদন আনরত দক েমে্া হয়?

a. Yes b. No
ক হ্াাঁ

খ না

3. Do you face any difficulty while collecting drinking water during summer time because of
excess hot weather?
৩অদতদেক্ত গেরমে েময় পাদন আনরত দক েমে্া হয়?

a. Yes b. No
ক হ্াাঁ

খ না

4. Where do you go for defecation during extreme rainfall?
৪ অদতদেক্ত বৃদিে েময় সকাথায় মলত্াগ করেন?

……………………………………………………………
6. Have you faced any problem regarding defecation during last flood?
৬ বন্াে েময় দক েমে্া হরয়দেল?

a. Yes b. No
ক হ্াাঁ

D. Health
ঘ স্বাস্থ্য

খ না

77
1) Have you or your family members ever suffer fromdiarrhea/malaria/cholera/dengue?
১) আপদন বা আপনাে পদেবারেে সকান েিে্ দক ১৯৯৮ োল সথরক সকান েময় িায়দেয়া/ ম্ারলদেয়া/
সকারলো/ সিঙ্গু সোরগ আক্রান্ত হরয়রে?

a. Yes b. No
ক হ্াাঁ

খ না

2) Didany health relateddifficulties occur in your family during high temperature insummer
and low temperature in winter?
২ আপদন বা আপনাে পদেবারেে সকান েিে্ দক অদতদেক্ত গেরমে েময় এবং অদতদেক্ত ঠাণ্ডাে েময় সকান
স্বাস্থ্ েমে্ায় স ারগন?

a. Yes b. No
ক হ্াাঁ

খ না

3) Did you or any of your family members suffer anyillness because of the consequence of
the flood?
৩ বন্াে পে আপদন বা আপনাে পদেবারেে সকান েিে্ দক অেুস্থ হরয়দেল?

a. Yes b. No
ক হ্াাঁ

খ না

E. Income
ঙআয়

1. How your work was affected during the last flood?
১ শেষবন্াে েময় আপনাে কারেে দক হরয়দেল?

...............................................................................................................
২ আপদন যখন অেুস্থ হন তখন আপনাে পদেবাে দক ----- ?

2. When you fall sick how do you take care of your household?
………………………………………………………………………...
৩ আপদন বা আপনাে পদেবারেে সকান েিে্ দক অদতদেক্ত গেরমে েময় এবং অদতদেক্ত বৃদিে েময় কখরনা
চাকদে হাদেরয়রেন?

3) Have you or any of your family members ever lost job due to extreme weather condition
like for heavy monsoon rain or high temperature?
a. Yes b. No
ক হ্াাঁ

খ না

78

F. Climate Change Perception
চ জলবায়ু পস্তরবততননর ধারণা

1. Have you ever heard of the term “climate change”?
১ কখনও দক েলবায়ু পদেবতত রনে কথা শুরনরেন?

a. Yes (go to question 2) b. No
ক

হ্াাঁ (২ নম্বে প্রশ্নরত যান) খ না

2. Where have you heard about climate change?
২ েলবায়ু পদেবতত রনে কথা সকাথায় শুরনরেন?

(Please write in ________________________________________________________)
(অনুগ্রহ করে এখারনদলখুন__________________________________________________________)

3. How important is the issue of climate change to you personally?
৩ এই ব্াপােটা আপদন দনরে কতটা গুরুত্বপূণত মরন করেন?

a.
b.
c.
d.

Very important (go to question 4)
Quite important (go to question 4)
Not very important
Not at all important

ক খুব গুরুত্বপূণত (৪ নম্বে প্রশ্নরত যান)

খ ___________ গুরুত্বপূণত (৪ নম্বে প্রশ্নরত যান)
গ অতটা গুরুত্বপূণত না
ঘ একিম গুরুত্বপূণত না

4. Do you think climate change is something that is affecting or is going to affect you,
personally?
৪ আপদন দক মরন করেন সয েলবায়ু পদেবতত রনে েন্ আপদন দনরে

ু ক্তর াগী হরবন?

a. Yes (go to question 5, 6, 7,8) b. No
ক

হ্াাঁ (৫,৬,৭,৮নম্বে প্রশ্নরত যান) খ না

5. If yes, in what way(s) is it affecting you, or is it going to affect you?

79
৫ যদি হরয় থারকন তাহরল দক ারব হরেন বা হরবন?

____________________________________________________________________
৬ আপদন দক দবশ্বাে করেন সয েলবায়ু পদেবতত রনে েন্ প্রাথদমক ারব প্রাকৃ দতক
মানুরেে কােকমত িায়ী?

দক্ত বা উন্নত সির ে

6. Do you believe climate shifts that occur are primarily driven by natural forces or human
activity of the developed countries?
____________________________________________________________________
8. Who do you think should have the main responsibility for tackling climate change?
৮ আপদন দক মরন করেন সয েলবায়ু পদেবতত রনে েমে্া েমাধান কোে প্রধান িাদয়ত্ব কাে?
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
f.
g.

International organizations (e.g. the UN)
The national government
Local government
Business and industry
Environmental organizations/ lobby groups (e.g. Worldwide Fund for Nature)
Individuals
Other
(please
write
______________________________________________________)

ক আন্তেতাদতক েংস্থা (রযমন ইএন)
খ েেকাে
গ স্থানীয় েেকাে
ঘ ----- প্রদতষ্ঠান
ঙপদেরব দবেয়ক েংস্থা(রযমন বাপা)
চ োধােণ মানুে
ে অন্ান্ (অনুগ্রহ করে এখারন
দলখুন______________________________________________)

6. Do you think the government is doing enough to prevent climate change?
৭ আপদন দক মরন করেন সয েেকাে েলবায়ু পদেবতত ন প্রদতহত কোে েন্ যরথি?

____________________________________________________________________

in: